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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

07/21/2014
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and StarStreet 7/21/14

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Pitchers

Julio Teheran - FD 8900 DK 9400 DD 19150 SS 26900
It’s taken me a little while to come around on Teheran and honestly, I’m not all the way there yet. His xFIP is a full run higher than his ERA at 3.74 and that alone has me a little off him today. But our system doesn’t account for this kind of “luck” over the course of the first half of the season and still likes his value for the dollar against the Marlins. Miami strikes out almost 24% of the time and though they rank in the top half of the league in wOBA against righties their stock has been dropping since an early season explosion.

Hyun-Jin Ryu - FD 8100 DK 9100 DD 15450 SS 24800
The Pirates rank 28th in the league against lefty pitching which is nuts considering they have some guys who’ve historically crushed that split. But it hasn’t worked out that way this season (McCutch aside) and Ryu is in a solid spot today. He’s a safer play considering Pittsburgh is a pitcher’s park depressing power to all sides. Ryu’s xFIP is in the low threes and his lower strikeout rate is made up for by him never walking anyone.

Jon Niese - FD 7000 DK 7200 DD 12600 SS 19500
If you are targeting matchups and ballparks you can do a lot worse than Niese against the Mariners. Seattle ranks 29th in the league against lefties in team OPS and strike out more than 22% of the time. Nothing exciting about Niese except the price allows tons of flexibility with your bats. His ERA is outpacing his xFIP by more than a run so don’t get too caught up in that number. But overall he works out great on multi-SP sites.

Consider Roenis Elias for sneaky K’s on the cheap

 

Catchers

Some super cheap options here today that I really like.

Wilson Ramos - FD 2900 DK 4000 DD 6300 SS 5600
Welcome back to Coors everyone! You’ll see a lot of Nationals on this list today for the simple idea that the Mile High air gives many a mortal man the atmospheric bump of the gods when they enter this place. Throw in a crappy lefty on the mound and you’ve got some platoon gold for guys like Ramos who hit better on this side of the split.

Mike Zunino - FD 2400 DK 3200 DD 6200 SS 4400
He strikes out like he wants the game to end faster so he can catch his favorite evening shows while they are coming on. No other way to explain it. But even with the high K rate, Zunino does hit lefties much better and has an OPS close to .800 against that hand. Add in that Niese, while effective, isn’t a swing and miss guy and you have some cheap value here today.

Kurt Suzuki - FD 2300 DK 3500 DD 6450 SS 4900
Kind of stinks in real life. But is much better against lefties and T.J. House is an average (he’s better than his ERA suggests) pitcher with limited strikeout stuff. Suzuki’s 126 wRC+ against lefties is nothing to scoff at and he will be an underplayed guy at the position who could offer some cheaper value.

 

First Basemen

Adam Dunn - FD 3000 DK 3900 DD 8500 SS 6100
Dunn’s biggest issue is that he strikes out at an embarrassing rate. But that’s the thing with three true outcome kind of guys. When they aren’t K-ing, they’re hitting bombs over the wall or taking free passes. Guess what Jeremy Guthrie doesn’t do? Strike out anyone. Guess what he lets up? Home runs. This is the perfect meeting point. I love Dunn today for a home run in a fantastic hitter’s park.

Miguel Cabrera - FD 4800 DK 6000 DD 12100 SS 10000
The price is exorbitant, but if you think you can swing the money then this is great play. The Tigers are a solid team to stack heading into Arizona against the lefty Nuno. They have a bunch of dudes coming cheaper around the industry who actually allow you a chance to fit Miggy’s salary. Miggy actually hasn’t been great against lefties this season, but some of that is Babip and HR/FB related.

 

Second Basemen

This position is easy today. There are three clear cut favorites and I suggest mixing and matching them a bit in your lineups.
Brian Dozier - FD 3400 DK 4600 DD 10600 SS 8000
Anthony Rendon - FD 4000 DK 4600 DD 8750 SS 9000
Ian Kinsler - FD 3700 DK 4600 DD 9150 SS 8000
I’m putting all three of these guys together because honestly, they are all about even in our system in terms of points per dollar. The considerations, in some ways are the same because all three have fairly extreme career splits against lefties and all present power upside in addition to other baseball card-filling skills that leave me pretty damned excited to see them in my lineups. Dozier and Rendon get added bonuses because they are multi-position eligible on some sites. Rendon’s price is a little higher but hey man, Coors. Like I said, I don’t think you can go wrong with any of these guys and I wouldn’t stray away from them. Build your lineups and see who you can fit in the end.

 

Shortstops

Ian Desmond - FD 3400 DK 4500 DD 8900 SS 7000
Like I’ve said, Coors makes DFS both exciting and frustrating both at the same time. In some ways I find it a moderate copout to just lay chalk across the board in picking these guys. On the other hand, some sites don’t price correct like DraftStreet used to and we are left with decent hitters on the positive side of their splits heading into a hitter’s fun park. Desmond is no different facing Morales. The former is a little more platoon neutral than you’ll see, but he still favors lefties over his career.

Eugenio Suarez - FD 2400 DK 3400 DD 5350 SS 4800
This my first time picking this cat. But his splits, even in a small sample size, against lefties look real nice with an .812 OPS and 130 wRC+. Chase Field is a solid hitter’s park and Vidal Nuno is, well, Vidal Nuno.

Asdrubal Cabrera - FD 2800 DK 4500 DD 8100 SS 6200
Kris Johnson is, in not so many words, not good. Cabrera is better against righties though it should be mentioned that he isn’t particularly great against anyone. He’s a better deal on FanDuel than anywhere else and DraftKings is pushing the price a bit. But Johnson isn’t great.

 

Third Basemen

Ryan Zimmerman - FD 3500 DK 4800 DD 9850 SS 7600
Oh boy oh boy. Are you kidding me with the FanDuel price on him today? Here’s a guy who’s historically bombed lefties, is hitting them well this season with a mid .800’s OPS trotting to the plate in Coors to face Franklin Morales. I love it. There are a couple other decent options on the board at 3B today but he rates out as the top guy. Can’t get enough of these Nats today.

David Wright - FD 3500 DK 4600 DD 10000 SS 7400
I’m not sold on the Mets as a team, but Wright right is such a lefty killer that you have to take notice when he faces one. His OPS is over 1.000 this season against southpaws with a nutso 183 wRC+. Some of that is Babip related, but the sample size is there for Wright as he’s always trended this way in the platoon.

Trevor Plouffe - FD 2800 DK 4200 DD 8750 SS 5000
Over his career Plouffe has really preferred the v. lefty platoon split. It hasn’t come to fruition so much this season, but if you are looking to save from Zimmerman and Wright then this is a place to start. He won’t give you the power upside. But the contact rate is there in this split and T.J. House, while not abysmal, isn’t anyone we are avoiding.

 

Outfielders

Jayson Werth - FD 4400 DK 5000 DD 11250 SS 9300
He’s super expensive across the board and yet is still a good value because of what he’s got going for him today. Werth is one of the best hitters against lefties in all of baseball. And this season is no different. The .424 wOBA alone would have me recommending him even in the pitcher’s park. Coors is no such thing. Werth is a guy to pay up for today. And really, if you can save on pitching today, I want to get as much money in on bats as possible. Fantastic cash and GPP play.

Josh Willingham - FD 3300 DK 4200 DD 8150 SS 5900
Consider this about Josh Willingham: On the season his OPS against lefty pitching is .831 which on its surface isn’t anything to get overly excited about. But then consider he’s doing it with a .225 Babip in that split and you start to see that a little regression is going to go a long way for the guy. A long way. Coming at a discount for sure. I’m buying.

Austin Jackson - FD 2500 DK 4000 DD 8850 SS 6000
If he’s still hitting leadoff against the lefty then all the better. Jackson, if hitting at the top of this Tiger order in front of Kinsler and Miggy would be a value if he was my little sister. Which he’s not. He’s a guy coming rather cheap in a solid hitter’s park against Vidal Nuno.

Adam Eaton - FD 2700 DK 3900 DD 7850 SS 6600
Alejandro De Aza - FD 2900 DK 3600 DD 7850 SS 5400Two contact guys going against a dude in Guthrie who doesn’t strike anyone out. Both coming cheap.

Jay Bruce - FD 3200 DK 4400 DD 8350 SS 7600
If you are looking for some power upside then consider him in Milwaukee against home run prone Wily Peralta.

Consider Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran

 

Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

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