Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and StarStreet 7/29/14

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Pitchers

Stephen Strasburg - FD 9400 DK 9500 DD 18450 SS 27600
On a day that has a few quality arms going, I'm still going with Strasburg almost anywhere I can. His peripherals are fantastic with a K/9 close to 11 while walking less than two batters on average in that same stretch. Those numbers are about as good as you'll see from anyone. He's been bit but a Hr/FB% beyond his career averages and here's to hoping it regresses some. Frankly, I think Strasburg is significantly underpriced for his value and if it weren't for a couple of other interesting plays, he'd be across the board for me. But he's such a great start against Miami in that ballpark and with their K rate against righties.

Jeff Samardzija - FD 8200 DK 8600 DD 18350 SS 26500
One of the few guys creeping into the conversation for me beyond Strasburg. The Astros are downright bad against righties this season with a 24% strikeout rate against righties and ranking near the bottom of the league in team wOBA on that side of the split. Samardzija's been solid this season, generating enough K's to give some upside on that end while limiting the free passes. His prices make him more than a value today and I'll be looking to save money on bats to get him in.

Lance Lynn - FD 8200 DK 9000 DD 18050 SS 25200
Strictly a matchup play here. While Lynn offers something in the way of strikeouts, it's more about him facing the Padres that has me intrigued. Lynn's xFIP is a little closer to four than anyone I like recommending, but the Padres (even with a recent Babip regression) are still a terrible hitting team. Again, this is all about price and opponent.

Francisco Liriano - FD 6900 DK 8200 DD 13150 SS 22800
If you are looking for some upside in a GPP, take a flyer on Liriano. His K rate is crazy high. But so are the walks. The Giants rank around the middle of the league against lefties. Again, nothing safe about this play. He could just as easily go three innings as he could six. But few other guys in this price tier offer the kind of strikeout upside as Liriano.

Consider Josh Beckett

 

Catchers

Brian McCann - FD 3000 DK 4000 DD 7500 SS 5300
My boy Brian has a great matchup today. I call him my boy because there are few other guys I've written more about this season than this guy. He's been unlucky to the extreme and was last time I picked him against Nick Martinez. But tricky Nick can't keep up those kinds of smoke and mirrors. Dude stinks and McCann's season long run bad has his price still as a great buy.

Miguel Montero - FD 2700 DK 3900 DD 8350 SS 5700
Mike Leake is a groundball pitcher who also tends to let up bombs to the opposing batter. Granted Leake is far from a bad pitcher, it's just that the splits and the stadium really favor Montero here. Miguel's 122 wRC+ with an OPS over .800 against righties are in line with his career averages and I like him going in Great American Ballpark where the home runs fly with relative impunity.

 

First Basemen

Freddie Freeman - FD 3700 DK 4800 DD 10450 SS 8200
Josh Beckett is pretty terrible against lefties, allowing a much higher career OPS against them than righties. This should benefit Freeman today even if the rest of the righty-heavy Braves squad could be in for a longer day. Freeman's 140 wRC+ against righties this season is in line with the rest of his career and he has shown solid power in this side of the split. Dodger Stadium isn't exactly a hitter's park which hurts the value a little. But for a one off, this is a good place to start.

Mark Teixeira - FD 3100 DK 4500 DD 9350 SS 6500
It looks like he should be back today (Pinch hit last night). Just in time. I don't normally love taking guys right back from injury, but this seems like a good time to buck old trends. Nick Martinez is just that bad. Teixeira, along with the injury, is also suffering from an abnormally low Babip on the season. But even with the ball not dropping into play, his OPS against righties is over .800. That should increase against Martinez.

Consider Chris Davis

 

Second Basemen

Chase Utley - FD 3300 DK 4500 DD 9100 SS 7300
I'm going to pick on Dillon Gee a little today for sure. He doesn't walk anyone, but those balls he puts in play have a moderate tendency to fly out of the ballpark. Utley's power numbers haven't been completely there since the beginning of the season. But he's still providing value in other areas of the stat line.

Ian Kinsler - FD 3500 DK 4500 DD 8900 SS 7500
Kinsler's monster issue against lefties this season has been a crazy low 4.2 Hr/FB% that rates well under his career averages. He's been significantly better on that side of the split over his career and I'm willing to take a stab on him today even though Jose Quintana is an above average pitcher. Sometimes the splits dictate this type of play, today especially.

Tommy La Stella - FD 2700 DK 3400 DD 6550 SS 5200
Like I said with Freeman, Beckett struggles against lefties and la Stella's walk rate could come in handy today as he is a tough out. Granted, he doesn't do a ton of other stuff. But he's cheap.

 

Shortstops

Starlin Castro - FD 2600 DK 4400 DD 7550 SS 6000
Starlin hits better against lefties and the Rockies love throwing out a bunch of mediocre ones. Jorge de la Rosa is another one in their stable. His xFIP is in the mid 4's and Castro's high contact rate should play well today against JdlR's "skill" set. Castro's power numbers are up this year thanks for a mini-spike in HR/FB%. I don't expect that to keep up necessarily but he's a solid enough hitter to play in this situation.

Jimmy Rollins - FD 3100 DK 4200 DD 9050 SS 7500
Dillon Gee generates some groundballs and more than a few homeruns. He doesn't strike out more than seven batters per nine, though doesn't walk many dudes either. Rollins is at the low end of the value spectrum today, but SS is predictably tough. He gets by with a little power and is running bad in Babip on the righty side of his split. Not a fantastic play but this position is always tough.

Consider Jed Lowrie

 

Third Basemen

Chase Headley - FD 3000 DK 4400 DD 8300 SS 5400
Tony Blengino wrote a <ahref=http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-happened-to-chase-headley/>great piece on FanGraphs about what's happened to Chase Headley this season and his decline over the last couple of seasons. It isn't necessarily an encouraging read if you are about to play the guy. But one takeaway is that hard-throwing pitchers cause Headley the most grief because they can challenge him outside of his comfort zone. Nick Martinez is not one such pitcher. Headley should be able to make contact and the Yankees as a whole are on the collective radar today.

David Wright - FD 3100 DK 4400 DD 8600 SS 6900
Wright is so good against lefties that I'm willing to play him even against one of the better ones. His OPS is over 1K this season and that is rather in line with the rest of his career. Basically, Wright has made a career on this side of the split and this season is no different. He's just crushed lefties. Hamels is good for sure, but I think this is one place to go after a top tier pitcher just because the hitter's upside necessitates it.

Consider Kyle Seager

 

Outfielders

There are a bunch of great plays in the OF today. Going to work hard not recommending 15 guys but I think it might happen anyway.

Jacoby Ellsbury - FD 3900 DK 4900 DD 9850 SS 8100
Carlos Beltran - FD 3500 DK 4500 DD 9200 SS 7000
Brett Gardner - FD 3500 DK 4800 DD 8500 SS 7100
Have you gotten the "Nick Martinez sucks" theme coming out all over this writeup? You reading it Loco-Coco? Dude cannot strike out major league batters and walks a ton of guys. I'm in no way considering what he did last time around against the Yankees. These guys are all in play and Bombers will be a popular stack today. There's good reason. Each of these guys plays better against righties, each can add some power upside and the ballpark really helps matters.

Corey Dickerson - FD 3800 DK 4800 DD 9700 SS 8900
Charlie Blackmon - FD 3200 DK 4700 DD 10550 SS 8300
Edwin Jackson is prone to getting blown the f@#$ up.

Mike Trout - FD 4800 DK 6000 DD 13200 SS 10400
Kole Calhoun - FD 3500 DK 4300 DD 9250 SS 7500
Josh Hamilton - FD 3000 DK 4400 DD 8650 SS 7400
I think Chris Tillman will really struggle with the Halos today. Each of these guys some value at various price points and for different reasons. Trout and Calhoun are obviously a bit safer in that they provide some upside beyond just the home run. Each hits righties better (Trout best?) and Hamilton is a solid GPP play on the cheaper side of things. The matchup is choice and each could go off today.

Gerardo Parra - FD 2400 DK 3700 DD 7150 SS 4700
Ender Inciarte - FD 2500 DK 2700 DD 5000 SS 4100
Mark Trumbo - FD 2900 DK 4100 DD 7500 SS 5600
There's also a case for this OF stack today against Leake. Trumbo is on the wrong side of his split is still coming fairly cheap. The other two offer something in the way of speed and run-scoring against a weaker pitcher in Mike Leake.

Consider Jay Bruce and Shin-Soo Choo (of course)
Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

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