Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and Draftster 8/20/14

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Pitchers

I broke the plays into the two slates. The early slate has most of the pitching. The late - hitting. I'm listing the evening slate first because it's the bigger one.

Garrett Richards - FD 8600 DK 10600 DD 18550 DFSTR 10200
If I were to hone in on a cash game play for the evening slate I think I'd favor Richards. He's had an excellent season with an 8.84 K/9 and 2.77 xFIP. The Red Sox put up a .302 wOBA against righties and strike out close to 21% of the time against righties. I don't love him pitching in Fenway, but the park does at least suppress power to lefties and the Red Sox have been starting some weak lineups of late. Doesn't feel great, great but in a rough evening slate for pitching Richards seems like the play.

Alex Wood - FD 8000 DK 7300 DD 15750 DFSTR 8200
Pitching for the evening slate is a bit all over the map. It's hard to hone in on one solid, safe play. Each of the arms comes with a risk. Wood is one such example. I really like his numbers this season as he's striking out close to a batter an inning and turned in some big performances. The problem is the Pirates are damn good bad against lefties, ranking in the top five bottom third of the league in team wOBA when facing southpaws. (I had been quick referencing the righty splits instead of lefty. Our system had the multiplier high on Wood because of this I just glanced at the wrong team splits page.)

Tanner Roark - FD 7700 DK 8700 DD 15650 DFSTR 9400
The Nationals are such a heavy favorite in the evening slate that it's tough leaving off Roark. His numbers this season are decidedly average with a 3.77 xFIP. His peripherals are fine considering his 3:1 K:BB ratio and he keeps his walks on the lower side. The Diamondbacks rank in the bottom half of the league against righties. It's tough finding safer plays in the evening grouping of games. Shooting for the win isn't a bad way to go.

Early Slate

Cole Hamels - FD 9700 DK 10800 DD 20700 DFSTR 10500
The xFIP is a bit higher than the ERA (3.23 to 2.44) but it doesn't take away from Hamels' raw peripherals that point to a dude just basically doing what he's done his whole career. He strikes out a little less than a batter an inning, keeps the walks to a minimum and is fairly efficient in going later in games. The Mariners make a ripe opponent as they rank second to last in the league against lefties and the Padres are creeping. Seattle stinks against southpaws and Hamels is in a great spot.

Jeff Samardzija - FD 8000 DK 9300 DD 17700 DFSTR 6900
Samardzija won't go crazy with the strikeouts on any given night, but he does pitch into the seventh on a pretty consistent basis as he keeps his pitch counts relatively balanced. His 3.33 xFIP is more than acceptable and he's facing a Mets squad coming in near the bottom of the league against righties. It seems like Samardzija is a fairly safe bet for cash games if you aren't going to pay up for Hamels. The A's are heavy favorites today it's hard to envision a scenario that gets him rocked.

James Paxton - FD 5500 DK 9000 DD 12450 DFSTR 6300
His price is awesome on FanDuel and he makes a great GPP play there. Honestly, at his prices and based on what he's been doing this season, you could make a case that he's just a safe play and you load up on bats. In five games Paxton is posting a 4:1 K:BB ratio and today faces a Phillies team hitting in the bottom third of the league against lefties. At $5,500 in the pitching slot with his stuff and the matchup, there doesn't seem to be a ton of downside if you can populate the rest of your lineup with solid bats.

 

Catchers

Salvador Perez - FD 2900 DK 4000 DD 7750 DFSTR 5700
Though he's only one day back from sitting out some time with a knee injury, Perez still remains a top play today based on the matchup and the park. He's been better against lefties for his career for sure so facing de la Rosa in Coors has it's real advantages. The struggles have been there this season, but much of it can be attributed to a low Babip. Not exactly sure how the injury will effect his power going forward (I'm writing this in the second inning of Tuesday's game) but the matchup is too good to pass up.

Wilin Rosario - FD 3100 DK 3800 DD 7800 DFSTR 4800
Danny Duffy is running ridic hot this season with an xFIP just about two runs higher than his ERA. Don't be fooled by the latter. His peripherals are garbage with a 2:1 K:BB ration and he doesn't strike enough guys out to make up for the walks. Loving Rosario today in Coors as Wilin's smoked lefties for his career and has a .950 OPS this season even on top of a .250 Babip.

Early Slate

Jonathan Lucroy - FD 3500 DK 4600 DD 9500 DFSTR 7100
Known for his destruction of lefties, Lucroy's been pretty solid against righty pitching this season with a 140 wRC+ and .378 wOBA in that platoon. R.A. Dickey is platoon neutral for his career and has been sporting an xFIP in the mid 4's this season. Lucroy isn't coming super cheap, but he won't break the bank either.

 

First Basemen

Billy Butler - FD 2600 DK 4200 DD 7600 DFSTR 6300
Still playing in Coors and still facing a lefty. I've felt like I've written some form of that sentence 1,000 times this season. Oh well, it still holds true and Butler's had success on this side of the split for his career. His lifetime 136 wRC+ this season is right in line with his career 142 number. de la Rosa is pretty garbage-y but he does induce some groundballs. I'm not overrating the latter and would be happy to get some Royals in my lineups today.

Jose Abreu - FD 3700 DK 5000 DD 11350 DFSTR 3800
He's hammered lefties this season though it should be mentioned that a decent amount of his success is built on a crazy 41% Hr/FB percentage. That is completely unsustainable and his power won't keep up the same pace over the rest of the season. That being said, making that kind of contact in the lefty platoon split counts for something. Wei-Yin Chen is no pushover, but I'm really liking the prices on Abreu and U.S. Cellular is a great hitter's park.

Consider Chris Davis

Early Slate

Garrett Jones - FD 2500 DK 3700 DD 7200 DFSTR 3500
Nick Martinez is by far the worst pitcher going in the early slate and I think you want to have exposure to him whenever possible. Jones isn't a huge masher, but he's shown some flashes and is slightly above average against righty pitching. Again, I'm mostly targeting opponent here.

Consider Adam Lind

 

Second Basemen

Some interesting choices here today.
Omar Infante - FD 2300 DK 3600 DD 6850 DFSTR 3600
Playing in Coors can make even the worst hitters look good. It isn't a sure thing by any means, but contact guys like Infante can always do a little damage just by getting the ball in play. He's facing the lefty and hitting at the top of the order. The prices are cheap all around and it's always tough to fade Coors.

Brian Dozier - FD 3600 DK 4300 DD 9500 DFSTR 3700
On the surface it looks like Dozier's struggled a bit against lefties this season with only a .730 OPS to show for his efforts. But that's got something to do with a .248 Babip that's well below his career averages in that split. Dozier has a career 129 wRC+ against lefties and that's enough for me to buy him against low K guy T.J. House.

Jason Kipnis - FD 3600 DK 4200 DD 8700 DFSTR 4000
The other second baseman in this game is equally as intriguing. Hitting anywhere from second to fifth for the Tribe, Kipnis doesn't crush right handed pitching, but he gets the job done. Like Dozier (though to a lesser degree) he steals bases and adds hints of power. Straight up I'd take Dozier, but Kipnis offers some nice upside as well.

Early Slate

Slim pickings here. Don't love the points/ $ on any of these guys really.
Scooter Gennett - FD 3500 DK 3400 DD 7700 DFSTR 5300
Is coming pretty cheap on DraftKings and has a good, not great, matchup against R.A. Dickey. Gennett's hit righty pitching well this season, cooling off after a torrid early season campaign. But the OPS is still in the .800s and Dickey's struggled with command.

Consider Daniel Murphy

 

Shortstops

As usual, this place is a disaster.

Josh Rutledge - FD 2600 DK 2800 DD 6550 DFSTR 3000
This is assuming he's starting of course. In limited action this season Rutledge has been great against lefty pitching with an OPS over 1.000. I'm not one to buy on small sample sizes like this, but the pickings are super thin. I don't want to commit any real dollars to the position so I'm willing to go cheap in the best ballpark and hope for the best.

Alcides Escobar - FD 2300 DK 4000 DD 7450 DFSTR 5100
Makes you feel awful except that the price is at a minimum (not on DK) so the risk is pretty low considering this could be another higher scoring game in Coors. He stinks and bats last in the order. But it's against a lefty and there's always the outside possibility that he gets on base and scores. How's that for a vote of confidence?

Early Slate

Elvis Andrus - FD 2500 DK 3700 DD 7600 DFSTR 3100
Want to target mediocre pitching and Eovaldi fits the bill. Andrus isn't good against righties, but like his SS brethren above, he's cheap and can provide scrapes of value if he can just get on base. Needs to be stealing to have any real chance of paying, but again the prices are low enough that there's little risk.

 

Third Basemen

Pablo Sandoval - FD 3100 DK 4100 DD 7750 DFSTR 3400
If you catch Edwin Jackson on the right day it can be a hitter's wet dream. EJax has fits of wildness and Big Panda owns a career 132 wRC+ against righty pitching. This season's been more of the same with a .365 wOBA and .841 OPS in that platoon. I like him as a mid tier dude in a good spot.

Lonnie Chisenhall - FD 2400 DK 3400 DD 6350 DFSTR 3000
Third base isn't exactly amazing today either so in the evening slate I'm willing to go a little cheaper as well. Chisenhall has a nice matchup against Rickey Nolasco, the very definition of *meh on the mound. Dude is as average as average gets. Chisenhall's been serviceable against righties this season with an OPS over .800 and a 130 wRC+. Nolasco's low K rates have me confident Chisenall can get the ball in play and the Indian lefties all have some upside today.

Early Slate

Couple of fine enough options here.
Juan Francisco - FD 2400 DK 2900 DD 6300 DFSTR 3000
He's coming near the minimum in some spots which is pretty great considering his success against righty pitching this season. Juan's no Barry Bonds, but at punt prices I'll take the .826 OPS split. Tack on that he's playing in Miller Park where power is boosted a bit for lefties and you have a great value against Jimmy Nelson.

Adrian Beltre - FD 3100 DK 4500 DD 9600 DFSTR 5400
Better against lefties but on some sites, FanDuel being one of them, he's coming very cheap against Eovaldi. I'm not overdoing it with the price here as Eovaldi is significantly better against righties for his career and that's Beltre's weaker split. But I think you can still have some exposure here because the Rangers should put up runs.

 

Outfielders

Mike Trout - FD 4400 DK 5500 DD 12950 DFSTR 3000
It should be said that Clay Buchholz isn't nearly as bad as his high 5's ERA would suggest. But it only means he goes from sub replacement awful to merely below average. Clay, when he is off, is about as bad as it gets. Last game was strong, but I can still see buying some Halos today, Trout specifically. His price is still depressed from a prolonged cold streak. It's a great time to continue buying low.

Michael Cuddyer - FD 3200 DK 4700 DD 10900 DFSTR 11400
Assuming he's in the lineup, Cuddyer is a great play against Danny Duffy. For his career, Cuddyer is has a 131 wRC+ against southpaws to go with an .880 OPS. And don't forget that a lot of those numbers came in Minnesota. Coors is the opposite.

Yasiel Puig - FD 3300 DK 4500 DD 11500 DFSTR 5800
Another great cash and GPP play is Yasiel against the lefty Eric Stults. Puig's OPS has dipped against lefties this season thanks in part to a HR/FB ration under 7%. He's not scraping those balls over the wall. For his relatively short career Puig is platoon neutral so I'm not overbuying on the lefty split. That being said, Stults stinks and Puig's price is reasonable.

Nelson Cruz - FD 3500 DK 4900 DD 10850 DFSTR 8300
Adam Jones - FD 3800 DK 4800 DD 9950 DFSTR 4900
I like them both today against Hector Noesi in U.S. Cellular. Tough to choose among the options in the later slate of games.

Consider Scott Van Slyke

Early Slate

Christian Yelich - FD 3500 DK 4700 DD 9100 DFSTR 9100
Giancarlo Stanton - FD 5200 DK 5600 DD 12900 DFSTR 11300
Again, I want exposure to Nick Martinez. Yelich is a super value in the early slate hitting leadoff against a guy who abhors striking batters out. Doesn't want to make them sad I suppose. Stanton's a little of an overpay, but no other player in the early slate has more power upside. Stanton's been destroying righty pitching this season to the tune of a .933 OPS. I haven't put him in our picks too many times this season because he's often over priced. But today in the short slate of games I think you can try and squeeze him.

Shin-Soo Choo - FD 2700 DK 3600 DD 9300 DFSTR 3100
Been hitting a bit more of late which is good because I was starting to think he was dead or something. He's not and the short term results are at least encouraging. In a good spot against Eovaldi who's much worse against lefty bats.

Consider Colby Rasmus
Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

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