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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

09/21/2014
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and Draftster 9/21/14

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Pitchers

Stephen Strasburg -

Hisashi Iwakuma -

Ryan Vogelsong -

Consider Scott Kazmir and Ervin Santana in some cash games

 

Catchers

Jonathan Lucroy - FD 3000 DK 4100 DD 9450 DFSTR 6800
While others set their sights on Coors, take a look at Lucroy against Worley. Lucroy's had a solid season against righties with an .854 OPS and .375 wOBA. Vance Worley isn't horrible, but he doesn't strike anyone out and has an xFIP in the high threes. Lucroy is coming very cheap today and you are getting a top tier offensive catcher on the relative cheap.

Miguel Montero - FD 2200 DK 3300 DD 7150 DFSTR 3000
He's playing a righty in Coors at nearly minimum prices while hitting in the middle of the order. I don't even really need to explain anything else to you here. Hopefully.

Wilin Rosario - FD 3500 DK 4500 DD 8850 DFSTR 14000
Well it took all season, but FanDuel is finally quickly price correcting for some guys in Coors. Rosario (and some other Rocky righties) have seen their price climb quite a bit. Basically, you are going to need to pay for Coors today. Honestly, it's a tempting fade. Rosario still kills lefties and Miley is susceptible to the stinker. But you can make a case for it today.

 

First Basemen

David Ortiz - FD 4300 DK 4400 DD 9600 DFSTR 5000
Let me say that I totally recognize you are overpaying here for the guy. He is coming steep. But many of the other first base options are in tough matchups or on the wrong side of their splits. Papi is expensive, but is a solid play going in a hitter's park like Camden against Miguel Gonzalez isn't a pushover against lefties by any means, but I'm having a hard team seeing many other solid plays at the position today.

Adam Dunn - FD 2600 DK 3400 DD 7300 DFSTR 3000
This is going to be an interesting one. And it might not turn out great for Dunn. But here's the thing: Burnett gets brutalized by lefties this season with a .351 wOBA against on that side of the split. Dunn strikes out a ton against righties which is scary. But he can take a walk and the upside here is big if Burnett is getting even a little wild. Not a safe play by any means.

Consider Eric Hosmer

 

Second Basemen

Second base is the anti-first base today. There is so much value here that it's tough to separate. I love a ton of guys and want some shares of them all today. The good news is that this gives you some options in filling out your lineups. The bad news is that a few of them are going to go off and you are going to want your hands on them. I don't typically do it this way, but here are the five guys are in solid matchups today coming at nice prices.

Ben Zobrist - FD 2600 DK 4100 DD 8450 DFSTR 5800
Aaron Hill - FD 2400 DK 4100 DD 7750 DFSTR 3400
Javier Baez - FD 2900 DK 4000 DD 8550 DFSTR 3000
Jason Kipnis - FD 2900 DK 3600 DD 7850 DFSTR 3000
Scooter Gennett - FD 2800 DK 3000 DD 7100 DFSTR 3000

The distinctions are subtle. And they provide value for a variety of reasons. But this is a tight grouping in our system.

 

Shortstops

Didi Gregorius - FD 2300 DK 3600 DD 6000 DFSTR 4300
Really I'd consider whatever shortstop the D-Backs decide to run out at shortstop today. Owings is coming cheap too, but I think against the righty Didi will get the start. He's run real bad against righties this season with a .245 Babip. By no means an offensive dynamo but he's a punt play running out on the best hitter's park in baseball.

Erick Aybar - FD 2900 DK 3600 DD 7850 DFSTR 3000
Nick Tepesch is among the worst everyday starters in all of baseball and you want to have some bats running out there against the guy. I love targeting Aybar against pitchers like Tepesch because young Nick strikes out only four batters per nine (absolutely horrendous) and Aybar strikes out less than ten percent of the time against righties. It's a match made in splits and Aybar feels awfully safe here.

Hanley Ramirez - FD 3900 DK 5100 DD 10700 DFSTR 9200
Going to have to overpay, but if you are looking for a slightly contrarian move with some upside I think you can consider him against Turner.

 

Third Basemen

Evan Longoria - FD 3400 DK 4500 DD 9850 DFSTR 7600
I know this hasn't been a season to remember for Longo, but it doesn't mean we can't grab a little bit of value at the tail end of the year. He is still significantly better against lefties, and though his numbers are down he still has an .830 OPS on that side of the split and is coming very much in the mid tier here against Danks. Danks has allowed over an .800 OPS against righties this season and though it's a pitcher's park I'm still rolling Longo.

Lonnie Chisenhall - FD 2300 DK 3400 DD 6400 DFSTR 3000
If there is a DFS writer who's written more about Chisenhall this season I'd like to know his/her name. He is consistently coming cheap because of his struggles against lefties as an everyday player. But getting an .800 OPS platoon against a min-priced guy has it's upside and Swarzak is below average against lefties.

Aramis Ramirez - FD 2800 DK 3700 DD 8350 DFSTR 4800
Very much on the wrong side of the split here, but the prices against Worley are so low that I think you can take the risk if you're having trouble fitting some salary.

 

Outfielders

A weird position today. There are a couple of different ways to go.
Mike Trout - FD 5100 DK 5700 DD 14150 DFSTR 9100
Kole Calhoun - FD 3800 DK 4400 DD 9450 DFSTR 3400
Going to cost. These guys have seen their prices climb over the short term. But each is playing Nick Tepesch. The same Nick Tepesch that strikes out a whopping four batters every nine innings (which he will never pitch consecutively in his life) and has an xFIP in the high 4's. He sucks and both Calhoun and Trout feast off righty pitching. Both are a little overpriced, but that's kind of the theme of the day at the plate.

Mark Trumbo - FD 3000 DK 4800 DD 8600 DFSTR 7500
Ender Inciarte - FD 3000 DK 3900 DD 5200 DFSTR 8100
David Peralta - FD 3200 DK 4300 DD 6800 DFSTR 8100
The story here is rather simple. They are coming rather cheap in the best hitter's park in baseball. Christian Bergman has spent the season getting knocked around a little bit and all of these guys are coming on the cheaper side considering the ballpark. I'm not going to overdo it here just because of Coors, but these guys are in a good spot today.

Michael Cuddyer - FD 4000 DK 4700 DD 10650 DFSTR 13700
Talk about a price correct. His salary sky-rocketed. That's what a 7 RBI game will do I suppose. We had him in that affair and honestly, he's still somewhat of a value today against Miley. Cuddyer hits lefties so well that the platoon and the park make him intriguing against Miley. I can see the case for the fade, but if you can afford him there is still upside at this price.

Michael Bourn - FD 2400 DK 4000 DD 7900 DFSTR 3000
He strikes out way too much from the leadoff spot and not offering any kind of power. But he still has a 113 wRC+ against righties and the Tribe could put up a few against Swarzak.

Consider Khris Davis and Gerardo Parra

 

Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

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