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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

11/22/2014
James Davis

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 11/22/14

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Point Guard

Mo Williams - FD 5500 DK 4700 DFSTR 3800
If this current incarnation of the Wolves is going to give Mo 30+ points a game at PG, the sky is sort of the limit in terms of his points per dollar upside. In 2 games as a starter he's averaged double digit points and assists, and as of this writing, he's fixing to pay it off again on Friday. The Wolves could obviously get killed by Sac-town, but they basically always get killed, so I don't worry for Mo's minutes there.

Deron Williams - FD 7500 DK 7500 DFSTR 7000
It's actually a pretty weird night for PGs, given the number of games going. I present Williams to you as a high-floor, low upside guy to lock in to your double ups, assuming no great punts come to life. Williams basically is what he is - a 30-40 fantasy points per game guy - and he'll be going up against a team allowing league average scoring to opposing point guards.

Donald Sloan - FD 5500 DK 4900 DFSTR 5300
Given the lack of fantastic options at the position, I think you've got to take a hard loon at one Donald Sloan. When it's tough sledding at a position, it's usually a good idea to just grab a cheap guy who gets his minutes and go. Sloan is that guy for me, tonight. He's paid 6x+ on this FanDuel price a few times this season, and while he's delivered you some clunkers, I'm not so sure you can't also fear clunkers from the big names as well. With some great expensive options elsewhere, I kinda like Sloan against the sub-par PG defending Suns.

Update: Consider Jose Calderon coming cheap in his first game back for the Knicks

 

Shooting Guard

Tyreke Evans - FD 7600 DK 7300 DFSTR 7200
There's no doubt about it - our projection system gets its favorites. One those happens to be Tyreke Evans at this price point. Evans is one of the more consistent plays in the game at the moment, in spite of the real-world basketball IQ not keeping up. On top of his excellent scoring ceiling, he's only dipped below 5 assists once this year, and 5 boards twice. And when he's hot, he'll have upside for more. While opposing SGs struggle against Utah, keep in mind that Evans actually plays the SF - a position where the Jazz have allowed fantasy totals slightly below league average this year.

Iman Shumpert - FD 5800 DK 5100 DFSTR 3600
The world will be spooked off of Iman Shumper following his horrendous 1-11 performance against Minnesota, but you shouldn't be. The fact is, Shumpert is one of the Knicks' very best two-way option, and should see continued ball handling duties given New York's lack of a true PG outside of the less than talented Shane Larkin. In a fast paced game against Philly, I think he's easily the highest upside SG play on the board. Update: Looks like Jose Calderon will be coming back Saturday, which hurts Shumpert's value some.

Manu Ginobili - FD 5000 DK 5000 DFSTR
Obviously, there's no way to predict what the Spurs will do in terms of minutes, but after a very light load against the Wolves, I imagine Ginobili will be locked and loaded against a stronger Brooklyn team. While Ginobili might not have blazing hot upside, he's actually be terribly consistent against decent opponents, and he's about as cheap as they come for safety like this. I especially like him against the indifferent Joe Johnson. He could be quite the play when it's all said and done.

If you're desperate to pay up:
I'm mildly intrigued by James Harden against the Mavs. The Mavs are struggling with depth in the backcourt, and we could see Harden take over given the bad defensive match-up for Dwight down low.

 

Small Forward

Tobias Harris - FD 7200 DK 7200 DFSTR 6600
I continue to be absolutely perplexed by the pricing on Tobias Harris. Where's the downside with playing this guy? Sure, he has the odd clunker, but even in a dismal night of shooting he put up 42 fantasy points last night. The thing is, the Magic understand that Harris is a terrific inside-outside guy, and they'll continue to feed him the ball in good match-ups. Taking on Shawne Williams? That qualifies.

Rudy Gay - FD 8200 DK 7900 DFSTR 7600
It's been a while since we've seen Gay post one of his trademark 23 shot, 50 fantasy point nights. But I almost like this version of Gay. He's been more efficient, and as a result he's playing a TON of minutes. Minnesota hasn't been able to cover literally anyone with how banged up they've been, and it's really hard to imagine Gay not putting up a good volume of shots at a decent clip, whilst also rebounding Minnesota's embarrassing misses.

Trevor Ariza - FD 6200 DK 6200 DFSTR 5700
Ariza's another guy who has become fascinatingly safe. McHale has been vocal about appreciating Ariza's two-way game, and it's shown - Ariza's on pace to play the second most minutes of his career, with trends leading toward him playing his most ever. Dallas is a fascinating defensive team because they feature some elite defenders, and some very much not elite ones. Chandler Parsons falls in the latter category. Love Ariza for cash games.

Also considered: Corey Brewer getting starter minutes with Martin out. Feeling stingy? I don't hate Chris Copeland or even Shawn Marion.
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Power Forward

Carmelo Anthony - FD 8700 DK 9500 DFSTR 7700
I know, I know. I can't stand Melo as much as the next guy. But who, exactly, is supposed to cover the guy on the Philly side of the ball? It's just such a terrible match-up for a team that was already 29th in the league against opposing power forwards. At this stage in his career, Melo is sort of a classic bum hunter, and I think we could be in store for a repeat of his 55 fantasy point game against Utah.

Channing Frye - FD 5000 DK 5100 DFSTR 5000
If you decide that Brow is too pricey, and that you are going to spend up elsewhere, Channing Frye remains a very interesting option. Foul trouble and game flow took him out of Friday's contest, but there's no reason to believe that will continue on Saturday. He had been playing mid-thirties minutes very solidly until then, and paying this price very consistently the whole way. I believe he'll return to that form against a Miami squad that's been below average against PFs this season.

Also considered: Derrick Favors, for GPPs. It always comes down to the minutes, for him. If the game is close and he plays 35-36 minutes, he becomes a dominant fantasy force. If he gets in foul trouble, or the game is a blow-out, he will kill you. Now, he might absolutely get in foul trouble against Davis. But if he doesn't? It's a better match-up than it looks.

On the other side of the ball, it's sort of hard to go wrong with Anthony Davis, even with his price in the stratosphere. Especially if a lot of punts burble to the surface, Davis is the guy with the highest projected points total of any position, if not the highest projected points per dollar.

 

Center

Nikola Vucevic - FD 8700 DK 8600 DFSTR 7900
It was a rough night on what should have been a great match-up for Vucevic against Charlotte, but most of that was due to FG% noise than anything else. Miami's able to skate by without a true defensive center against a lot of teams, but the Magic won't be one of them. The Heat have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing centers this season, and all signs certainly point to Vucevic tearing down 14+ boards and generally owning the Heat down low.

Gorgui Dieng - FD 6000 DK 6500 DFSTR 4900
It won't always been pretty, but the max-effort Gorgui Dieng provides value in so many ways that he has a tough time not turning something in in the box score. His 10 blocks + steals over the last 2 games point to his very high floor, and the odd game where he is in position for the lion's share of the rebounds will show him paying this price and then some. While Boogie's defense has been terrific this year, Dieng does enough that I don't think he's a guy who will be particularly effected here.

Anderson Varejao - FD 4900 DK 5100 DFSTR 5600
Every night, our projection system wants me to list Anderson Varejao first in this portion of the column. And every night, I chicken out and list him in the "also considered category." Well, I'll only partially hedge tonight. Varejao has been an absolute force down low, both defensively and on the boards, and the Cavs haven't been shy about giving him the ball down low. Most of this is due to their new excellent spacing (even if the Cavs have been horrible - the spacing! My god, a thing of beauty). With Dieng's price increasing, Varejao becomes a very attractive cheap option.

Keep your eye on: Chris Bosh. If D-Wade is out again, Bosh becomes a through-the-roof usage guy who you absolutely need to keep an eye on.

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2 Visitor Comments

  1. Just an FYI BKN plays San not OKC on 11/22. OKC not San is the 21st ranked defesnse vs PG.

  2. How do you field rostering Teletovic tonight with KG sitting. SF is always a b*tch to fill and he is cheap and should get 35 minutes.

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