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featured Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

11/22/2014
James Davis

Sleepers - Daily Fantasy Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and Draftster for Week 12

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A peek ahead at week 12

Looking for the week 12 picks? Follow the link! I go position by position and give you whom I believe to be the best plays, dollar for dollar, for Week 12's games. This article is going to be a little bit different. Instead, I'm going to focus on particular lineup formation strategies that might help you get some separation from the field and get those value plays and sleepers that will let you spend money elsewhere while cashing in for cheap.

 

Sleepers

Weekly disclaimer:
The whole concept of a sleeper in one week fantasy football games needs to be adjusted. First of all, there's no real such thing as a "sleeper," in that you're not really going to sleep on a guy until he wakes up. What you're looking at with cheap plays are guys who are priced very reasonably who could go off if all things break right. Sniffing out the best cheap plays with upside is really the only way to have a chance in hell at taking down some of these utterly massive NFL tournaments. You'll pay up for the big names, and then hope your bargain plays pay off. That's where we come in - here are some sleepers that we love for Week 12.

We also talked about a lot of these plays in our week 12 podcast, but there are some new faces as well!

On to the picks

I'll start by saying that I noted a lot of cheap guys in our week 12 picks article. Guys like Fleener, Hawkins, Shorts, etc. Check them out there. Here are some above and beyond guys.

Tre Mason - FD 5600 DK 4200 DD 7350 DFSTR 4000
Mason is my favorite cheap guy this week by a country mile. Since he's been the starter, he's had the displeasure of going up against the run defenses of Denver, Arizona, San Francisco, and Seattle. Those are the 2nd, 3rd, 6th, and 7th run defenses in the league. So you can't kill him for putting together a horrendous YPC. With San Diego's offense sputtering badly the last few weeks, I think Mason will get 20+ carries. There's TD upside here as well, but he's the safest RB on the board below $7k on FanDuel.

Blake Bortles - FD 6300 DK 5600 DD 10550 DFSTR 5400
This one might not be as crazy as it first appears. Bortles has paid off 2x on his FanDuel price here in 4 of the last 5 weeks, and has gone off for as much as 3x+. The Colts have given up the 6th most yards to opposing QBs, and it stands to reason that the Jags will be playing from WAY behind. If you love expensive guys at other positions, it really wouldn't be crazy to slide Blake in there.

Cecil Shorts - FD 6300 DK 5400 DD 7500 DFSTR 5600
Allen Hurns - FD 5900 DK 3200 DD 7300 DFSTR 3700
I detailed the case for Shorts well enough in both our week 12 podcast and week 12 picks, so I won't go crazy here. Cliffs: Allen Robinson is out, and the targets have to go somewhere. Allen Hurns is the big play option here, whereas Shorts will inherit a lot of the possession downs. I think Shorts picks up the extra Red Zone work (if applicable, I know) as well, so I think he has arguably more upside than Hurns.

Chris Hogan - FD 5400 DK 4600 DD 5400 DFSTR 3500
Hogan is the deepest of deep WR sleepers. So how does he show up here? Well, he's got 50 yards or more in 4 of his last 5 games, and scored 2 touch downs in that time. He's marching toward the top of the Buffalo Bills red zone targets. And he's priced like a defense. Could he disappear in a game? Abso-frickin-lutely. But he's my bet for "Who the hell is that guy who just scored 2 touch downs and ruining all the GPPs" for this week.

Trent Richardson - FD 5700 DK 4900 DD 9200 DFSTR 5500

Oh God, I've submitted Richardson for your (lack of) approval in the past, and I don't do it again lightly. And Herron? My goodness. Both of these guys seem fairly awful, so this is a true shoot for the stars recommendation. Basically, the case is this: In spite of Richardson's general horrendousness, he has touched the ball in the red zone 21 times this year. And that was with a healthy Bradshaw. If the Colts get up by a million (and they really almost have to), they'll have an incentive to just dust away the clock. Could Richardson get 23 carries for 45 yards? Absolutely. But he might score, too. Anyway - just wanted to make you aware.

Jerick McKinnon - FD 5600 DK 4500 DD 7150 DFSTR 3200
McKinnon is way off of radars, which is interesting, considering he's averaged 4.9 yards per carry, his goal line back is injured, and the guy they just brought in (Ben Tate) A) doesn't know the offense and B) also sucks. Now the Vikes will be down 50 in this game, but if McKinnon can gather 15 touches, he could really pay off huge and be played almost nowhere.

Isaiah Crowell - FD 5500 DK 3800 DD 5800 DFSTR 4000
There's a lot of uncertainty in the Cleveland backfield after Ben Tate's departure, but this is another straight money play. The Falcons have been a total mess recently, and are the 8th worst team in the league against the run. If you believe Crowell is the goal line back, and I do, this is probably a higher-upside Trent-Richardson type play.

Keenan Allen - FD 6500 DK 4900 DD 9050 DFSTR 4900
Vincent Jackson - FD 6500 DK 5200 DD 8350 DFSTR 6000
So I'm lumping the "big name guys that everyone hates" together for you. The case for each is similar. They've seen tons of targets, scored very little, and have prices that are severely depressed as compared to their potential upside. I like Allen better just based on recent opportunity (45 targets in his last 4 games), but Jackson may have a greater upside if the Bears wise up and try to take away Evans.

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Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

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Thanks, and good luck!

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