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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

12/12/2014
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy Football Picks Week 15 - ScoreStreak

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Passing Touchdowns

There are a number of quality quarterback options to choose from this week in this format. I really couldn’t fault on using a handful of guys. This is where you undoubtedly will see the most separation.

Peyton Manning
Fairly obvious play here. He’s thrown for at least three touchdowns in six of his last seven games. Though not the biggest line of the day, this game does project to be high scoring. One issue with Manning I will say is that the Chargers are a solid team against the pass. Manning isn’t necessarily matchup proof, though he’s close especially in a non-salary cap format. The Broncos are happy to throw a ton no matter the situation and I think that always puts Peyton in play. They are also among the highest in the league at throwing in the red zone. That’s just the stat we need to pile on the touchdowns even in suboptimal matchups.

Drew Brees
The bad news first: He and the Saints were just terrible last week against the Bengals. Let’s get that part out of the way. They got smoked in a true headscratcher of a performance. Personally, I think it’s an outlier in terms of Brees’ production as he’s been insanely accurate over the course of the season. A great cure for the hangover of a bad offensive game is the Bears’ defense. They get rained on through the air and are allowing the third worse net yards through the air per game. I do wish this game was in the dome instead of outside in Chicago at night. That actually could be a real thing that hampers the Saints. But otherwise, an accurate quarterback facing a porous secondary is just the right kind of scenario.

 

All-Purpose Yards

Le’Veon Bell
Going to be a very popular play this week and with good reason. He faces an Atlanta defense that gets completely torched in every phase of the game. The Falcons are dead last in total yards given up from scrimmage this season and Bell is among the leaders in total yards. That’s a nice place to meet on the graph. A real nice place. He hasn’t gained less than 220 yards in each of the last three games. And while I’m not one to buy on recent performance as the sole indicator of future success, the Steelers willingness to use him in every facet of the game makes this play even more appealing. He raises his floor considerably simply because they look to him in the passing game as well. This is your easy play on the week.

Arian Foster
There aren’t many constants in this world. But the Texans usage of Arian Foster is one of them. When he is on the field Houston has shown that they are willing to run him until he scores or gets hurt again with very little in between. It’s an odd way to handle a talent like Fosters, but whatever, I don’t run that team. In his first two games after coming back from injury they gave him the ball 24 and then 26 times. He wasn’t listed on the injury report this week so I think the usage only goes up. Sets a high floor because, like Bell, they will use Foster in the passing game. The Colts are a middle of the road defense and better against the run. That’s the only thing making me hesitate on Foster (that and the Texans might be getting smoked). But there simply aren’t many other backs with his talent that get the ball as much as he does.

 

Total Receptions

Josh Gordon
He played in 80% of the team’s snaps on Sunday and that’s a great sign going forward. And we believe, like many, that putting JFF behind center will only help Gordon do what he was put on Earth to do: sit out a bunch of the season on conduct violations and then tear sh@# up on the way back. Will be interesting to see simply how much Manziel-Gordon stacks there are this Sunday in salary cap formats. I suspect it’ll be a lot. Gordon is obviously fantastic and should be a highly targeted guy for a new QB.

Calvin Johnson
If Matthew Stafford is as loyal to his ladies as he is to Megatron then man, he must be the boyfriend of the year. In the “I only have eyes for you” category, Stafford just can’t help but look at Johnson over and over and over again. Got only nine targets last week (converting eight) but that was mostly because the Lions were crushing Tamb Bay and they didn’t need to pass anymore down the stretch. This game might turn into a little of the same with Detroit as an eight point favorite. So I don’t know if I’d put Tron in the top catches category. But he’s as safe as a safe can get in the lower tiers.

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