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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

12/15/2014
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 12/15/14

Welcome to our daily fantasy basketball column - where we provide the best daily plays on a points per dollar basis.

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Point Guard

C.J. Watson - FD 4300 DK 5000 DFSTR 3000
Let's keep things simple here and not confuse the issue. Watson needs to be in all of your lineups and under no circumstances are you to start anyone else at the point guard position. Am I making myself clear here? To start, his price hasn't caught up yet to his new role as the starting point guard. Beyond that, he's playing the worst defensive team in the league against, well, everybody. The Lakers are a defensive joke and getting a punt(ish) PG against them is something you can't pass up. He'll be in every one of my lineups.

Cory Joseph - FD 4600 DK 4600 DFSTR 3000
I'm putting him here under the assumption that Parker sits again. If that's the case then it's Watson and Joseph for me across the board in two PG lineups. Heads up I'll take Watson. Monitor this situation closely.

Kemba Walker - FD 7300 DK 8000 DFSTR 7200
I'll be honest, I'm hoping Parker doesn't play because the point guard situation gets a lot less clear without the two guys above. But when it comes down to it, Kemba is a solid option facing up against Kyrie. Dude feels anything but safe. But the price reflects his ebbs and flows. This is a spot you can buy low(ish) on the guy.

Consider Kyrie Irving

 

Shooting Guard

Rodney Stuckey - FD 5600 DK 5500 DFSTR 4800
Played him the other night at a significant discount as a contrarian play against the Trailblazers and he hit value and then some. Even though he's switched over off the point back to the two, the minutes are still more than there. And getting a guy playing more than 30 minutes with a decent usage at this price is worth it. Against the Lakers? Forget about it. The second easiest start of the day behind Watson.

Jimmy Butler - FD 8000 DK 6600 DFSTR 6700
At this point, you need to pay for the guy. I don't like that of course because I long for the days of getting Jimmy Buckets at a severe discount even though I knew Thibs would run him out there for 40 or so minutes every night. But Atlanta gets blitzed by opposing two guards on a nightly basis (thanks Kyle Korver) and allow things like 11% more scoring than league average and even worse when it comes to assists and rebounds. It's a cost, but it's worth it.

Consider Lance Stephenson

 

Small Forward

Robert Covington - FD 4700 DK 5700 DFSTR 3100
He's no longer a secret. Came in at something around a 70% cash game play on FanDuel on Friday and the price only corrected a smidge. He'll be a big play again and with good reason. He's getting the starter minutes and begin super productive with them. MCW seems content to kick the ball his way in the corners and he's getting to the free throw line enough to raise his floor. Covington, along with Watson and Stuckey are mainstays for me today.

Jeff Green - FD 6700 DK 6900 DFSTR 6100
Will most likely be behind only Covington in terms of percentage start tonight at the small forward. After all, he is facing the Sixers. It is worth noting that Philly isn't necessarily the defensive disaster they were last season even though some folks have projected that onto their current form. It simply isn't true. That being said, they aren't great obviously. Green is a solid play who's guaranteed his minutes for better or worse. His price is more than fair and me makes a great side-by-side to @holla_at_rob33

Consider Kawhi Leonard and Solomin Hill as a GPP play

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Power Forward

Taj Gibson - FD 6000 DK 6300 DFSTR 5400
This is very much contingent on Noah sitting out again on Monday. That he was called so early yesterday does not bode well for my pony-tailed boo tonight so I'm willing to figure Taj gets the run tonight. Again, it's worth monitoring closer to game time, though I will say the Bulls are one of the better teams in the league at just letting you know early. So I think we know despite the 7:30 EST time start. If Noah is out get Taj in as a midrange play who stands to see a bunch of productive minutes.

David West - FD 6200 DK 6300 DFSTR 6100
As is wont to happen whenever the Lakers are playing, I end up writing about all of the guys on the team opposing the Lakers. The big thing holding back West's value this season has been his consistency (or lack thereof) of minutes. If you figure he will see a requisite thirty minutes of run, then this is a rather easy start considering LA allows, oh 25% more scoring than league average to opposing power forwards. Big guys down low have their way.

Blake Griffin - FD 9700 DK 10600 DFSTR 8900
He's become somewhat of a different animal this season as he is raising his floor a bit by not scoring as much and choosing to dish a bit more, while also killing his ceiling a bit by not scoring as much all of the time. He's an interesting guy and great to watch as he's making better choices especially around the perimeter. This unfortunately doesn't always translate to fantasy success. But he has a great matchup against the Pistons. Last time they played he went 15/7/7 which doesn't totally pay this price. But Detroit is well below average against power forwards and I love Blake as a bigger money option especially if I don't play Taj because Noah is back.

Consider Pau Gasol especially if Noah sits again. And Greg Monroe as a GPP play.

 

Center

Al Jefferson - FD 8300 DK 8200 DFSTR 7900
He isn't a huge multiplier guy in our system, but center is one place you can over spend a little tonight. Cleveland has had trouble with stopping opposing centers from scoring this season, allowing 12% more than league average to the position. This mostly happens when Varejao gets in foul trouble early. Again, I don't love Al as a great and super safe play, but I do think this price reflects value.

Anderson Varejao - FD 4900 DK 5100 DFSTR 5500
On the other side of the ball, if Anderson can stay out of foul trouble then you are getting him at a crazy deal. He needs to see upwards of 25 minutes for this price to pay off. But if he does that then you are definitely grabbing him at a discount.

Roy Hibbert - FD 6000 DK 7500 DFSTR 6000
I've written up every other freaking Pacer because they are playing the Lakers so why the hell not. I'll be rolling him for sure.

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1 Visitor Comment

  1. I’ve been burned too many times due to the inflated projections against Lakers and Sixers.

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