Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 3/23/15

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Point Guards

Mike Conley - FD 6100 DK 6100 DFSTR 6000
He'd been on the shelf for a bit with some ankle issues. But as NBA players are wont to do, he came back in the last two games and returned to his regular run. That's solid news considering the matchup today as the Knicks would lose to you, me, and three of our closest friends if we put a little hustle in it. Chance of a blowout of course, but the Knick backcourt defense is Swiss cheese. Conley should have his way back there.

George Hill - FD 6400 DK 6900 DFSTR 5800
The Pacers and Nets put up an uncharacteristically efficient offensive onslaught on Saturday that led to a ton of points. Hill was crazy efficient in the game going 8-15 from the field on his way to an 18/9/4 game that more than paid the day. Hill's minutes won't ever top out, but he's at least running over thirty on a consistent basis and he's a big cog in the Pacer wheel. Price hasn't caught up to what he's been doing in the offense.

Zach LaVine - FD 5000 DK 4900 DFSTR 3500
This is obviously strictly based on Rubio sitting again. The little Spaniard has been in and out of the lineup and when he's out Lavine has played major minutes. That's because the T-Wolves don't have any other solid ballhandlers. Lavine's price has come up because he's been getting more starts lately. But a dude averaging in the mid-30's or higher on a given night in the lower middle tier is a straight value that you can't pass on.

 

Shooting Guards

Tony Allen - FD 4800 DK 5000 DFSTR 4200
Allen, for all his defensive stalwart-ness has been a solid part of the Memphis offense lately. Now part of this is shooting the lights out of the place when guys on the Grizz actually allow him to take a shot. He's running super hot from the field of late which has made his game logs look damn good. Don't expect to continue seeing 60%+ shooting nights. But do expect the minutes to hold on. That's where I like the guy. The run with Courtney Lee out has been there and should stay. Coming cheap and is worth it.

Evan Turner - FD 5800 DK 5600 DFSTR
Got some extra run the last two days because of Marcus Smart's pinching problems. Smart will be back tonight, but I expect to see Turner to continue seeing just enough minutes to retain value. It's a close call and much of this pick rests on the idea that shooting guard is incredibly weak on this slate. Turner has enough of a skill set to project his floor enough for safety in cash games. But I'm not over the moon about it.

Consider Bradley Beal and Tony Snell

 

 

Small Forwards

Trevor Ariza - FD 5900 DK 6300 DFSTR
Ariza headlined this article in his last game, and went out and put up 40 fantasy points against the Suns. He's now put up 30+ fantasy points in 6 of his last 7 games. What more do you need to know? Our projection system believes (rightly) that this price is not commensurate with that sort of production. On a night that's one of the worst nights for small forwards in recent memory, I'll play him everywhere against an Indiana team that's been a little bit worse than league average against opposing small forwards this season.

Jeff Green - FD 5000 DK 5700 DFSTR 4900
The small forward picture gets a little brighter if Courtney Lee is going to sit again on Monday. In a starting role, Green led the Grizzlies in scoring with 23 points and crashed the boards for 9 rebounds as well. If he is going to be in the starting lineup and play 33+ minutes, Green's price should be something like 15%-20% higher. That means we're in BUYBUYBUY territory. Portland (Green's last opponent) has been significantly tougher on opposing wings than the Knicks this season as well, only sweetening the deal.

Gerald Henderson - FD 5400 DK 5400 DFSTR 4700
Here's what James wrote before Henderson's match-up with Sacramento on the 20th:
Oh, man. It's not easy to look at the two single digit performances Henderson's put up in his last 5 games. But I can explain those, to some degree. Those were the two worst blow-outs of the season for the Hornets, and that shouldn't be the case in this game against the Kings. In fact, Henderson dropped 40 fantasy points against these same Kings a little more than a week ago. So while it might feel a little awk, I think you can deploy Henderson with great aplomb in all fantasy formats tonight.

Well, it all clicked just in the way we expected. Henderson paid off this price, and his DFS owners were happy. This game with Chicago is not as good a match-up to be sure, but SF really is a wasteland tonight. I think he's a good cash game play.

Keep an eye on Gordon Hayward. If he's going to go, he's a very nice play against a Minnesota team that has allowed 10% more scoring than league average to opposing small forwards. If he can't go, Joe Ingles put up 23 fantasy points on a $3,500 salary the last time he sat.

 

Power Forwards

Marvin Williams - FD 4100 DK 4300 DFSTR 3600
Let's be clear - Marvin Williams is not a good NBA player. But as we've written perhaps 7 times (more?) this season, daily fantasy basketball is a lot more about opportunity and price than talent. And here, we have a price inefficiency. When Williams got 39 minutes against these same Bulls, he scored 23.1 FanDuel points. Again, that's a pretty awful points per minute. But on $4,100? That total could be part of a winning big tournament lineup. With Zeller out, I'll play Williams everywhere.

Derrick Favors - FD 7500 DK 7800 DFSTR 7700
If you have a little bit of extra money to spend, Favors makes for a fantastic play, and triply so if Hayward actually sits. Minnesota has allowed 5% more fantasy points than league average to opposing power forwards this season, and it'll be an even tougher go for them if Garnett is out (as is currently predicted). Favors looked fantastic against Golden State's tough interior defense (putting up 21 and 11 with 2 blocks and a steal), so this has all the hallmarks of a cake-walk against Minny.

Donatas Motiejunas - FD 5600 DK 6000 DFSTR 4900
Another pick brought to you by the daily fantasy hoops industry's proclivity to move at a snail's pace to efficient pricing when someone gets injured. RIP, DraftStreet. So, there isn't a whole hell of a lot of analysis to do here - Motiejunas' price reflects when he was playing 30 minutes a game, and now he's playing 37+. This is a pretty tough match-up against a stout Indiana front-court, but Motiejunas' rebounding and role in the offense means he'll have the highest floor of any guy at the position on a points per dollar basis. Great cash game play, and I'll roll with him in big tournaments as well.

Punt possibility: Adreian Payne. It looks like Garnett is going to be out again, and Payne put up better than 6x points per dollar in his last game in increased minutes. Foul trouble is always a problem for this guy, so it's definitely just a home run play, but this could be a serious home run.
 

Center

Brook Lopez - FD 7600 DK 6500 DFSTR 6600
The re-emergence of Brook Lopez has simply been a delight for our projection system. And if we've said it once, we've said it a thousand times - NBA guys, when healthy, tend to show gradual changes in their performance as opposed to sudden ones. So when Brook Lopez was taking a little while to ease back into his role as a great offensive center, we held firm. And it's finally paying off! Now that he's back North of 31 minutes per game, he should make for a terrific play against a Boston team that hasn't been able to handle big men all season - allowing 11% more scoring than league average to opposing centers.

Rudy Gobert - FD 7900 DK 7900 DFSTR 5800
Two ridiculously terrible games in a row for Gobert, and people are justifiably grumpy with him. But the 20 rebound a game monster we saw a week ago hasn't disappeared completely. This game will be a big indicator for me, though, as to whether we can stick with Gobert at these prices going forward. Minnesota has been real bad against opposing fives this season, allowing 6% more points, 3% more rebounds, and a staggering 36% more blocks than league average to opposing centers. And, like Favors, if Hayward is out, Gobert won't be limited to the 5 shots he took in his last time out there.

Also considered: Gorgui Dieng.
 

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