Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/3/15

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Point Guards

Greivis Vasquez - FD 4100 DK 5000 DFSTR 4000
Vasquez's minutes continue to be in the 30s, and his price stays the same. Why? He went out and put up 5.5x points per dollar against the Wolves his last time out, and has flashed 7x-8x upside in recent games as well. Sure, there are some clunkers in there as well, but you can't get this kind of upside at higher price points. Vasquez is the guy that helps you afford the big money guys that you'll want to play tonight. The Nets, for their part, have been slightly below average against opposing point guards this season - but this is a case of price and opportunity matching up. I'll play him everywhere once again.

Tyreke Evans - FD 7800 DK 7600 DFSTR 6300
We recommended 'Reke before his last game against the Kings, and he put up 42.4 fantasy points on the back of 25 points and 10 assists. I generally think the whole idea of revenge games is, well, less than scientific. But Evans was ceremoniously dumped by Sacramento, and his effort really does change on a game to game basis. He's also playing a ton of minutes, and the Pelicans really need him. No reason to think he won't be a great mid-tier value play today, with considerable upside as well.

Aaron Brooks - FD 5900 DK 5800 DFSTR 3900
Just a case of Hinrich and Rose being out. If he plays mid-thirties minutes, it's going to be hard for him to NOT pay these prices off, especially against a gimpy Reggie Jackson and a generally indifferent Pistons team.

Mike Conley - FD 5900 DK 6100 DFSTR 6000
Conley's price took a nose dive after his injury, and hasn't climbed back to its previous levels. A few things have suppressed it - but mostly limited minutes in blow-out situations. This game against the Thunder should play out more like his recent games have, helping Conley hit his 34-35 minute mark where he has the ball in his hands a ton. And as Westbrook has gone to a different level offensively, he hasn't been able to maintain the same effectiveness on the defensive end, allowing a 3% above average amount of fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. It's not a through-the-roof upside play, but I think Conley makes a very safe cash game option.

Also considered: Zach LaVine playing big minutes and Damian Lillard against the lowly Lakers.

 

Shooting Guards

DeMar DeRozan - FD 7800 DK 8000 DFSTR 6900
DeRozan burned 41.5% of the fantasy community that started him in Wednesday's double-ups, much to my delight. But as far as our projection system is concerned, it's only created a buying opportunity. DeRozan's minutes were limited in a blow-out, and should return to the impossibly high thresholds he was reaching before getting a brief respite. And if he's going to play 40 minutes, he's better than a $7,800 player. Joe Johnson has defended his position horribly this season - allowing 6% more points, 4% more rebounds, and 21% more assists than league average to opposing shooting guards. DeRozan is a very, very safe way to invest nearly $8k in salary on FanDuel tonight.

Dion Waiters - FD 4700 DK 5000 DFSTR 4100
I wavered back and forth on putting Waiters in the top slot, but wound up dinging him a little bit due to the minor injury questions. Which is a weird thing to write for a dude that's averaged 39 minutes in his last two games. But I think the minutes will be there in this game once again, and Memphis hasn't been nearly as tough on two guards this season as they were last. And there's that Westbrook guy that the Grizzlies' best wings will have to deal with. I think Waiters is a great value play with potential for 30+ point upside, which would be enough to place him on potentially tournament-winning lineups. So, I'm a fan.

Bradley Beal - FD 5800 DK 6000 DFSTR 5300
It's just the wrong price for Beal. The Wiz are hell bent on this playoff push (as evidenced by their bringing their starters back in when the game was foregone against Philly on Wednesday), and Beal is central to that vision. He took basically every shot with the second unit on Wednesday, and would have gotten significantly more run had the game been in doubt. Now, the Knicks are horrendous, and the game isn't likely to BE in doubt, but that doesn't mean Beal won't go out there and reproduce his effort against the 76ers. All signs point to another 30+ fantasy point performance, and lots of happy daily fantasy basketball owners.

Also considered: Lou Williams has been very solid on these prices recently, and could be a nice way to escape a fairly crappy position cheaply with a pretty high floor.

Small Forwards

Omri Casspi - FD 4000 DK 4000 DFSTR 3700
Casspi was the stuff of legends for DFSR projection system users on Wednesday, and looked like a totally different player. We were cracking up watching him strip James Harden and go coast to coast for dunks. Now, will Casspi put up 8x points per dollar in this one? Probably not. But he's been a LOT more effective out of the starting lineup when defenses have to think about other guys than he is with the 2nd unit, and I'm expecting him to put up nice stats on big minutes once again. Even though I'd probably recommend him against anyone, I'll extra-super recommend him against New Orleans and the 7% more points than league average they've allowed to opposing small forwards this season. Play Casspi everywhere.

Tobias Harris - FD 6400 DK 6400 DFSTR 5900
He's been steadily playing minutes in the upper thirties, even cracking 40 last game. Faces a very banged up Minnesota team that's having trouble keeping anyone from doing, well, anything. Harris' price has climbed some, but he's still very much a bargain if he's going to be out there for long stretches. Game should stay close (though won't be one I personally watch).

Andrew Wiggins - FD 7000 DK 6800 DFSTR 5500
With the whole Timberwolves team missing games, Wiggins is taking on an increase role in the offense, and putting up great numbers. He played an absurd 44 minutes against the Raps and put up a 25/5/5 line with 2 blocks and a steal. That's damned solid production for a $7,000 player on FanDuel. And the Magic are a below-average team defensively against opposing small forwards this season as well. Wiggins might have the highest floor of any player in his price range, and have plenty of ceiling to boot.

Jeff Green - FD 5200 DK 5600 DFSTR 4400
I was first in line in thinking that Green's usage would be negatively impacted by the return of Courtney Lee, but the stats just don't bear it out. He's been locked in to his 33 minute rotation, and has put up a relatively low variance 5x points per dollar in his last five games. And I'm not frankly sure who's supposed to cover him here. Morrow and Waiters are undersized, and Kyle Singler is... Kyle Singler. OKC is one of the few teams that can match up with Memphis down low (to some extent), so I expect Green to get increased looks from the outside. Great cash game play.

Also considered: Lance Thomas is a home run play, and I'm contractually obligated to mention CJ Miles as a good value, even if it means I must prepare for another barrage of hate-tweets. And Kawhi Leonard, if the minutes are there, can put up monsters.

We're people here, you know.

 

Power Forwards

Power Forward is uncharacteristically tough tonight. Here's my best effort!

Marvin Williams - FD 4800 DK 5100 DFSTR 3900
Our system is more bearish on Williams than I am. I think it's having trouble adjusting for his more prominent role in the starting lineup. Either way - it still likes him fine in a tough match-up against the Pacers. It's something I've written a thousand times and I'm sure I'll write ten thousand more times, but the price doesn't fit the opportunity. He's averaged 28 fantasy points per game in his last 4 games, which is a GPP winning ratio. When positions are this confusing I love to escape them cheaply with a high floor, and Williams will help me do just that.

Ersan Ilyasova - FD 5800 DK 6500 DFSTR 4800
If shooting the moon is your thing, consider Ghostface Ilya. He's put a true beatdown on a few plus match-ups recently (including back to back 40+ fantasy point performances against the Heat and Pacers), and has his best match-up in recent memory against a Boston front-court that is either aging (Bass) or bad at defense (Zeller, Olynyk). I could definitely see him bowling them over en route to another high octane double double, and it kind of smells like a bit of a mismatch.

Anthony Davis - FD 12200 DK 11400 DFSTR 9400
Another route you could take at power forward this evening is ditching the uncertainty and going with a known quantity at a huge price tag. I suspect a lot of people will wind up playing Davis. And with good reason. There will be a lot of very cheap options that burble to the surface as teams continue to jerk around their minutes late in the season, and the Pels are in a game that they are going to want very badly to win. I think he'll build on the 50 fantasy point performance he had against the Kings when they faced recently, but don't think he'll be a great play on a strictly points per dollar basis. That said, if you can pair him with drastically underpriced guys like Casspi and Vasquez, I could absolutely see him anchoring winning lineups.

Also considered: Amir Johnson and Pau Gasol though the latter has seen his shot attempts drop since Jimmy Buckets cam back.

 

Center

DeMarcus Cousins - FD 11900 DK 10000 DFSTR 9600
Um, yeah. Cousins has 3 70 point games in his last 4. Three. Seventy. Point. Games. After deposing a Wilt-esque 39/20 on these same Pelicans in their last meeting, he responded to Houston's collapsing on him by putting up an obscene 24/21/10 line. I don't know what's going here, frankly. I haven't taken advantage yet, but I guess I'll be buying high, because there's little to no chance I'll be fading Boogie on a night with no other slam dunk big dollar play.

Brook Lopez - FD 8400 DK 8200 DFSTR 7000
Like power forward, center is a little bit of a quagmire tonight, but Lopez represents a fine 1a. to Boogie's 1. In his last 8 games, Lopez has averaged more than 45 fantasy points on the back of 27 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 blocks per game. That's just fantastic production. The Nets are essentially running the offense through him right now, and Toronto's been a hair below league average at defending opposing centers this season. I think Lopez is a very safe option in a game where he should be able to stay out of foul trouble.

Also considered: Jonas Valanciunas and Nikola Vucevic

 

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