NBA Playoff Preview - Round 1 Western Conference

The playoffs are finally here and they are shaping up to be damn entertaining. Instead of publishing daily picks (as we suspect very little changes in these first round matchups) we are putting up a playoff preview for the first round. These picks are from our system and barring some injury or a major lineup shake-up, we suspect many of the value plays will stay put. We'll be updating this as the first round moves along, especially if something glaring comes to light. We'll also update when Sunday's games are posted on the major sites. Now let's enjoy some playoff NBA!

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Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans Pelicans

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Analysis

The Warriors are coming off an historic season that saw them basically blow the doors off each and every team they played. They were rarely challenged this season and the result was them basically having their starters see bits and pieces of rest along the way as they would often sit the fourth quarters. This may happen again as they are heavy favorites against the Pelicans who punched a playoff ticket on the last day of the season. The playoffs are a different animal so it’s hard to just pencil in a blowout for Golden State, but if there’s a series that could get out of hand quickly it’s this one. Golden State is just that good and versatile on both ends of the floor.

Of course the Pelicans have a generational talent in Davis, and have scrappy until the end. But they don’t have the depth and talent of Golden State. The one interesting thing about the Warriors though is that much of their starters’ pricing (Curry excluded) is based on these guys having lower production because the minutes weren’t always there. When Golden State limits their rotations and the starters see more minutes you will really have a chance to grab a little value around the margins.

Top Plays

Stephen Curry
Point guard is pretty deep in this opening round and I’m not totally sure it makes sense to pay all the way up for Steph considering some of the other options. But if he all of a sudden is averaging around 38 minutes a game then the sky is kind of the limit for the guy. He’s a double-edged sword because if he is all heat check then he can hit the stratosphere, but that also usually means the game is getting out of hand and he’ll be pulled.

Klay Thompson
He’s priced much more in the acceptable range when it comes to roster formation as you’ll find fitting those higher salary guys in on these slates is going to be real tough short of some kind of injury (that most people will be on anyway. Klay offers a chance at a middling approach whereby you put together lineups comprised of team’s second and third fiddles. That’s an insult to Klay of course, but only by comparison to Curry. Really like the prices you are getting on him in this series.

A note on the Pelicans: I don’t see myself playing either Davis or Evans. They are so expensive considering their heavy dogs facing the best defensive team in the league.

Value Plays

Eric Gordon
Should see a minutes bump heading into the playoffs. Even with Davis in the lineup Gordon is still putting up 12-14 shots a game. That’s great production from a guy in the lower middle tier of players.

Andrew Bogut
Coming very, very cheap considering he could play legit minutes in this series.

Update: If Tyreke Evans is out for Game 2 then Norris Cole could pick up a ton of minutes. 

Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks

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Analysis

This should be the most exciting and closest of all the playoff series. It features two teams in the top ten in the league in PACE along with a two differing approaches to their offensive game plan. Houston employs the "give it to Harden and get out of the way" approach while Dallas tends to share the love a little more. It will be fascinating, high octane and great to watch. The first game of the series is set at the highest over/under at 210 and no other game is really close. This will probably hold suit much the same throughout the first round. There is just simply too much firepower here.

The thing about Houston from a DFS standpoint is that although they stand to put up a ton of points, so much of it comes from one guy and that dude just happens to be the most expensive player on the slate. They have some other interesting pieces, but much less than most other teams. Dallas on the other hand has some question marks with Parsons coming back from injury and Rondo's minutes never totally stabilizing. Dallas used deeper rotations in the regular season so it will be interesting to see what they do now that the playoffs are here.

Top Plays

James Harden
Though I'm very concerned about the price and your ability to field an effective roster around him, he stands to have an insane usage rate now that the games really matter. I mean he was the only guy touching the ball when the games we just kind of important. Now? Eek. Harden does pass and gets other dudes into the flow, but by and large he's the engine (and the all the other parts of the car). Like I said, my only hesitation has to do with the pricing. In terms of raw points, only really Davis and Curry are in his ballpark, but both of those guys are even coming slightly better points/ $.

Monta Ellis
I think he has one of the higher ceilings relative to price on the whole slate. I don't want to call him a must-play, but his price has dipped a decent amount over the last few weeks thanks to some variable play and some poor shooting games. This has led to his salary in the sweet spot and has him coming in as the sixth most expensive shooting guard on FanDuel. That could spell something awesome and I think I will be rolling the dice on him in the first slate of games.

Value Plays

Tyson Chandler
The defense vs. position numbers for Houston are a little skewed when it comes to center as Dwight Howard's sat so much this season and they really don't have anyone behind him. But Chandler is poised to play a lot of minutes fronting Dwight. It will be between him and Bogut in the first slate of games and Tyson could be in store for a big price correction if his minutes shake out the way I think they will.

Rajon Rondo
If Rick Carlisle all of a sudden anoints him the man then Rondo could turn in some sneaky points. No Patrick Beverley means Houston's defensive backcourt is more than compromised. Rondo is frustrating as hell, but I'm mostly looking at his price being in line with lower minutes and if that changes he's a bargain.

J.J. Barea takes over for Rondo and is seeing the minutes here. Great value play. 

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Memphis Grizzlies

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Analysis:

From a fantasy perspective the Trail Blazers are kind of a dream in that they really only play five guys and those dudes will be called upon to basically carry the full load in the playoffs. They are thin after the starting five and with Matthews out and Batum looking questionable, even their starting unit isn’t at full strength. So I think the minutes will be there for the studs like Lillard and Aldridge. They need to be really. The problem is that Memphis’s grind it out style doesn’t lenfd itself to targeting fantasy value against the Grizz. As you’ll see in a second, I think the usage rates for the Blazers’ key cogs will be such that I think you can trump the matchup, but keep in mind that the ceilings might not be totally there.

The Grizzlies on the other hand are in a good spot in terms of fantasy matchup. Portland is weak defending opposing back courts and have allowed a fair amount of production from those positions. On the interior it won’t be as easy for the Memphis bigs, but the guards should be able to produce. The matchup here makes things a little wonky as their isn’t an obvious place to exploit each team, but the salaries are a bit lower meaning if the minutes are totally there you can get in on this matchup even with a lower projected over/ under.

Top Plays:

Mike Conley
This is contingent on him starting and standing to see the majority of the point guard minutes as long as he is healthy. Portland (read: Lillard) is one of the worst defenses in the league at defending opposing point guards and allowed 8% more scoring than league average to the position. Conley’s price is down because he sat a great deal down the stretch with injuries. This is a fantastic price if he is all systems go and for our money rates out as the best points per dollar player on the slate.

Damian Lillard
Lamarcus Aldridge
If sure feels like these two guys are going to take every single shot for the Blazers in this series. Portland has very few scoring threats after their top two and I think you see the usage rates on both dudes really top the chart. Memphis is of course not a prime defense to target, but on short slates you want to target minutes and usage. These two guys will carry a heavy load in this series and I especially like the prices on Lillard.

Value Plays:

C.J. McCollum
If McCollum is getting the majority of the run at the two in this series (because of injuries to both Matthews and Afflalo) then he is the other awesome punt play that you will probably have to use. Portland gets weird about minutes after their big guys, so I’m not totally trusting C.J. will get all of the run. But he’s cheap and allows a ton of flexibility.

 

San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Clippers

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Analysis:

This will be an interesting series and one of the more entertaining ones on the playoff docket. They are two legit title contenders facing each other in the first round, which really can't be said for any of the other series. The Spurs are starting to peak at just the right time (all in the Pop plan) and have managed their minutes well all season. That means the big guns will be more than ready coming into a playoff run that they'll need to win primarily on the road.

The Clippers meanwhile are a team with very little room for error. Their top three are among the very best in the league with Redick making a solid fourth banana. But their talent level falls off a freaking cliff after that. Really to an embarrassing degree. Paul, Griffin and DeAndre will have to do just about everything in this series and if Pop works to take out one of them as a component then the Clips really could be in trouble.

Top Plays:

Tony Parker
Kawhi Leonard
Tim Duncan
The big three from the Spurs should find their way into your lineups. Parker is the toughest sell mostly because of the other point guard value out there. But Kawhi and Timmaaaay, will be unleashed in this series. The Clippers have struggled to defend small forwards and wings all season long and Kawhi is going to cause them all sorts of fits. In his price range and position Kawhi is the top option by a decent amount. I suspect he will be all over my cash lineups. Duncan rates out as well because his price has been depressed all season thanks to playing variable minutes and sitting. That is off the table now as I suspect he’ll get full run in his final career playoff push. This is going to be a great series and get ready to see the Spurs fire on all cylinders.

For my money, the Clipper studs are off the table. They are all too expensive considering the defensive matchup. Though they will play big minutes, I think they will all struggle to hit value comsindering some of the other options.

Value Plays:

Manu Ginobili
If he’s in the mid 20’s range (or higher) for his minutes then I love the value. Seems reasonable to expect him to be out there for longer stretches, but I wouldn’t necessarily count on it.

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