Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 5/4/15

Ready to make the leap and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks? Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. It also happens to work for MLB, for when basketball season ends, and you still need your fix.

Forget the salary caps by playing ScoreStreak. Get involved today by clicking the banner below!

 

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. the Chicago Bulls

Analysis

The Love-less Cavs steamrolled the Celtics in round 1, to no surprise, while the Bulls dealt with the Bucks definitively after being nagged by them in the middle of the series. While the Cavs have had an eternity to rest, and this could play a role against the slightly older Bulls, I think that ultimately we're going to see the players who are left at their best regardless of how the first series went.

So how have situations changed from the regular season? Well, the Bulls have went even further into crazy town regarding some of their starters' minutes - eroding the value of bench guys like Mirotic, Gibson, and Brooks. The Cavs' plan is a little bit more of a mystery. Tristan Thompson didn't just gobble up all of Love's minutes when he went down at the hands of Kelly Olynyk, and it's not totally clear what they'll do. We'll know a lot more after the first game. Until then? Here are our guys.

Top Plays

Derrick Rose - FD 7500 DK 7400 DFSTR 6000
He's still priced like he's playing 32 minutes a game, but Thibs has turned him loose for as many as 40+ minutes per game so far during the playoffs. Kyrie's defensive struggles are beyond well documented at this point. Now Rose only had 3 great games on these prices against the Bucks, but I'm willing to forgive the letting up when the Bulls were up 3-0 and then 3-1, and think it all comes back together during this incredibly high-profile match-up. With a lot of point guard uncertainty elsewhere, D-Rose makes for a great way to get lots of minutes and usage at very reasonable prices.

LeBron James - FD 11500 DK 11100 DFSTR 9200
Oooh, Lebron. With a lot of great big ticket guys going during this round, it's tough to choose any one in particular. But allow me to make a case for King James. With Kevin Love out, LeBron obviously will see an increased amount of usage and takes. Many will give you LeBron on those credentials alone. There's even more going on here, though. During the regular season, LeBron's game totally changed against the Bulls. He took 24 shots per game (the most he took against any team he played more than once), largely because the Bulls don't really have anyone that can cover him. Their bigs are too slow, and their wings are too short. Getting left in this no man's land is undesirable in any series, but with LeBron having everything to prove with Love down, I'll be all over him.

Kyrie Irving - FD 8800 DK 8500 DFSTR 7100
Kyrie's minutes are up in the playoffs, and so is his usage. With Rose's conditioning somewhat questionable (can he REALLY sustain this on 30% more minutes for the whole playoffs?), I think Kyrie could have some transcendent games over the course of this series. And, like Rose, he's a hell of a lot safer than a lot of the other point guard options you can find elsewhere for this round. Not a whole lot else to say here, other than you should play him if you can find the dollars.

Against the Grain Fade: Jimmy Butler. Butler was kinda great during the Milwaukee series, and he's obviously playing just insane minutes. So why am I besmirching his good name? Well, I don't mean to. Butler IS great. It's just that, on these short slates, you're going to have to not spend up somewhere. The case against Butler is this: most of his production is already priced in to this price. Unlike a lot of other dudes in the playoffs, Butler was already playing 40+ minutes in the regular season (thanks, Thibs), and while you're getting relatively "safe" production from him, you're not really going to experience the upside you can elsewhere. Me? I'll go cheap at the position when I can.

Value Plays

Iman Shumpert - FD 4500 DK 4100 DFSTR
With Smith serving a 2 game suspension, we're going to see all the Shump we can handle. He was more the ready for the occasion when he got the increased playing time in the Cavs' last game, putting up 15/10 with 2 blocks and 3 steals and a phenomenal fantasy performance. While the Bulls are tougher defensively than the Celtics were, Shumpert is more a case of a mismatch of pricing and opportunity, at least for the first two games of the series.

Mike Dunleavy - FD 4200 DK 4900 DFSTR 3500
Dunleavy is about as unsexy a guy as you can play during the playoffs, but you're going to need to play some unsexy fellows to play the big money guys. And Dunleavy is actually a pretty great play in that regard. He played 30+ minutes per game in the Bucks series, and aside from his random -1 point performance, he punched the clock for 22+ fantasy points in every other contest. That's a great value on this price, and buying him means you can invest more in the upper tier guys elsewhere.

Joakim Noah - FD 6500 DK 6300 DFSTR
If you decide to go cheap at Center, Noah makes for a very interesting option. His minutes are back up to where he was earlier this season (the 33-37 range), and he's still priced based on his late season swoon. With 3 great games and 2 good games on this price against the Bucks, I like him very much against a Cleveland team that will really struggle when it comes to big man depth in this series.

Also considered: Tristan Thompson, though we'll need to see if he's actually going to get more playing time with Love out.

 

Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Analysis:

The common media opinion seems to be that the Clippers will be gassed and complacent heading into this series, but I'm not so sure. I don't think anyone will consider their season a rousing success after a second round exit, and I think their "big three" have a lot more to play for than just moral victories. On the other bench sit the Houston Rockets. They caught Dallas at just the right moment, and steamrolled them impressively. Dwight was a man possessed. Harden was cool and collected. They're rested, and theoretically locked and loaded.

So how does this effect fantasy match-ups for this series. Well, the first things to be aware of are that both teams have shifted minutes away from their non-stars (to no one's surprise). The Rockets in particular are overloading on Harden, Dwight, and Ariza, while spreading minutes pretty evenly among everyone else. This naturally makes their big plays a little more attractive, while making guys in the next tier down (Jones, for instance) somewhat unplayable.

The Clippers are dealing with a very serious injury (CP3), but they really have no way to deal with it other than to just hope he survives. He did it in game 7 against the Spurs, but can it last all series? Further into the playoffs? I don't think so. Read on to see how I think it effects things further.

Top Plays:

Blake Griffin - FD 10900 DK 10300 DFSTR
Blake was at another level entirely during the epic first round clash with the Spurs. Now, there were reasons for that, of course. No one on the Spurs could begin to match up with him athletically, and he had the ball in his hands a ton. His 19.9 shots a game were a 25% increase over his season total of 15.9 per game, which meant he was handling the ball more in addition to playing more. The Rockets were about league average at defending power forwards during the regular season, but as we've seen so far in the playoffs, we need to look more carefully at individual match-ups instead of season long trends. Terrence Jones is an athletic and strong presence down low, but CP3's injury woes should see the Clips running the offense through Blake even more than usual. I think this could be another big series for the Clippers' big man.

Dwight Howard - FD 8100 DK 8400 DFSTR 6700
Good God, it was insane to watch Howard go #fulldwight on the Mavs in round one. All semblance of minutes restrictions were out the window, and Howard reverted back to peak form, putting up 18/16 with 2.3 blocks and 2 steals per game in the last four games of the series. And that was against Tyson Chandler! As we all know by now, DeAndre is a great help defender, but sometimes loses track of his own man, and #fulldwight should be able to repeat round one's performance (and perhaps then some) in the conference semis.

Against the grain fade: James Harden. The case for Harden seems clear. CP3 is injured, they should shift Harden more usage because it's the playoffs, etc. But digging deeper into the numbers, I'm not so sure it will play out that way. Harden averaged his second fewest shots per 36 minutes (13) against the Clippers this season, and his 2nd lowest field goal percentage (35.8%). Now, that might be a small sample size thing, but I'm not going to bother risking it unless the early games in the series go dramatically against my expectations.

Value Plays:

Jamal Crawford - FD 5100 DK 4500 DFSTR
With CP3 looking a little glum, it stands to reason that Crawford could see increase minutes early on in the series, as the Clippers try to not overwork Paul in non must-win situations. Crawford should see a slight uptick in both minutes and ball-handling duties, which should lead to an increase in scoring as well.

Trevor Ariza - FD 6000 DK 5600 DFSTR 5200
Mostly because small forward is pretty dicey during this round of the NBA playoffs. Ariza's minutes are as secure as anyone in the league's, and San Antonio's over-emphasis on Kawhi shows what the league thinks of the Clippers' small forward defense. While Ariza won't be afforded that level of usage, don't be surprised if Harden spends more time slashing and kicking to Ariza than he does taking it to the bucket. And it helps that the Clips basically don't have a player who can do anything at all at the SF position defensively.

Matt Barnes - FD 4700 DK 4300 DFSTR
I prefer Dunleavy and Ariza to Barnes, but if you need to save the extra dollar, Barnes' minutes are utterly secure, and the Clippers showed that they're willing to give him an increased role if the moment calls for it. Ariza's not the defender he once was, and the Rockets will certainly be focusing on just about every other offensive option before they consider Barnes.

Be sure to try out a free 3-day trial to the projection system that helps produce these picks for the NBA (and for MLB!)! And check out our free NBA & MLB eBooks below.