Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/5/15

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Quick note: With the Rockies and Diamondbacks getting rained out yesterday and the starters getting pushed back, some of these picks are the same as yesterday as that situation didn't change.

Pitcher

I don't trust anything about this slate of pitching.

Stephen Strasburg - FD 9500 DK 10200 DFSTR 8800
Oof, I don't love it. My man crush with Stras is officially waning thanks to some struggles he's had (especially out of the stretch) that have led to some less than inspiring numbers. His xFIP is up slightly this season thanks to the aforementioned strand rate. Though it is worth mentioning that his .402 Babip against is due to come back down to Earth some. He has a solid K upside potential today considering the Marlins strike out about 22% of the time against righties. And pitching is a bit weird with a lot of loser arms going. I think taking a flyer on Strasburg in this situation is more than viable.

Shelby Miller - FD 8700 DK 8200 DFSTR 7400
I feel even worse about this one, mostly because of the price. He's more expensive coming off a strong outing against the Reds. The upside here for Miller is the opponent in the Phillies who are the worst in the league against righty arms. Philly is pretty garbage-y with a .252 wOBA and .566 OPS against righty pitching this season. Some of that is Babip driven, but when you look down their order, it makes sense. Miller is simply *meh but I'm all about opponent here especially considering he's a decent favorite for the win.

Jeff Locke - FD 6700 DK 6100 DFSTR 5700
Our system really likes him thanks in part to how much the Reds are striking out against lefties this season. They have a couple of guys in Hamilton and Bruce who can't hit lefties even a little bit. And their order gets real thin at the bottom. This is simply a cheap upside play considering his K rate is up a bit this season and the xFIP is much lower than the ERA.

Catcher

Stephen Vogt - FD 3500 DK 3900 DFSTR 6100
Trevor May hasn't been bad this season but catcher is feeling very thin. Vogt, hitting in and around the middle of the order makes for a solid play in the middle tier of pricing. Since pitching won't kill your cap you can take some risks like this fill out the salary. He's above average against righties.

Welington Castillo - FD 2200 DK 3000 DFSTR 4500
He typically get the starts against lefty pitching and that should be the case again tonight. Tyler Lyons is a live arm so I'm not over the moon on Castillo here, but he is coming at total punt prices and if he's hitting around the sixth spot then I think you can take a flyer on the guy.

Strongly consider Victor Martinez on FanDuel and

First Base

Jose Abreu - FD 3600 DK 5000 DFSTR 7300
Adam LaRoche - FD 2500 DK 4200 DFSTR 5900
He's seen his price come down some over the short term as it's been about two weeks since he last went yard. Abreu though is one of the premiere bats in the game and has an OPS well over .900 over the last year plus against righty pitching. Shane Greene's been striking out less than six batters per nine on the season. I love the ballpark here as U.S. Cellular is one of the best hitter's parks in baseball. Grab Abreu at a nice discount now because I don't suspect it lasts. Meanwhile, Laroche is the punt play here, at least on FanDuel. He's a little too expensive for me on DraftKings. He is hitting in the middle of the order though and that's a nice price in a great park.

Carlos Santana - FD 3300 DK 4300 DFSTR 6400
He's a better hitter against lefty pitching and has a .373 wOBA between this season and last against that split. He isn't the masher like some other first basemen, but he's priced accordingly. If you are going to shoot some middle tier value on this slate because the pitching situation is iffy at best, then he makes a safer play thanks to a walk rate higher than his K rate against lefties.

Paul Goldschmidt - FD 6100 DK 5700 DFSTR 8900
His price is pretty much out of bounds, but if you play any pitcher besides the big guys then you probably can take a shot on Goldschmidt even at the elevated salary. The thing here is that he has so much upside considering the park, splits, speed, power. It's really there for Goldy. He's a cash game dream because his skill set lends itself to points across the board.

Consider Albert Pujols

 

Second Base

Dustin Pedroia - FD 2900 DK 3800 DFSTR
Think he's the top play at second today facing the lefty Smyly. Pedroia, for his career, is much better against lefties with an .853 OPS in that split. The ballpark favors his contact style of hitting and he should see plenty of opportunity to pepper balls off the monster. He's walked more than he's struck out over his career against lefties and is in a great spot today.

Aaron Hill - FD 2900 DK 4300 DFSTR 5900
Only in play for me on FanDuel as I think the DraftKings price is a bit out of bounds. Hill isn't an everyday player for the D-Backs but here's to hoping he draws the start today against the lefty Matzek. Check his status and his slot in the order. If he's near the bottom I might look somewhere else, but if he's in the top 5-6 then he's a great low cost guy on FanDuel.

Neil Walker - FD 2700 DK 3800 DFSTR 6100
Michael Lorenzen had a solid outing in his first start (from a peripheral perspective) but dude's minor league numbers don't lend a lot of credence to thinking he's a strikeout guy. He appears average and Walker is adept at hitting righty pitching with a 133 wRC+ over the last season plus in that split. He's coming on the cheaper side. Second base has been a tough position to fill on the season and I'm looking to spend in the lower middle tier and forget about it.

 

Shortstop

Mike Aviles - FD 2500 DK 3300 DFSTR 5500
Jose Ramirez - FD 2300 DK 3100 DFSTR 3100
As I've said before, most of their value comes from one of them hitting in the two hole when the Tribe face lefties. Though neither is particularly adept at the plate, the same can be said of most shortstops whose names don't rhyme with Schmulowitzki. They will face a soft-tossing lefty in Jason Vargas who strikes out only four batters per nine. That number is about as low as you'll ever see from a regular starting pitcher.

Jhonny Peralta - FD 2500 DK 4100 DFSTR 5100
Another guy with a batting order boost, Peralta hits in the cleanup spot for the Cardinals which probably says more about St. Louis than it does about Peralta. But we are just looking for shortstops who aren't atrocious with the bat and have enough of a plate appearance expectation to remain relevant. Peralta fits the bill there, is fine enough against righty pitching though I don't love the matchup with Kyle Hendricks.

Consider Jimmy Rollins

Third Base

Adrian Beltre - FD 2800 DK 4700 DFSTR 6700
His FanDuel price is getting dumb and I don't even care so much about the reverse splits piece. While he's much better against lefty pitching, his price there has reached the point of being able to buy in the reverse platoon. It's not like he's a dog against righties with a 120 wRC+ against that hand. That's fine enough for a sub 3K salary. On DraftKings it's a little closer, but still a moderate bargain considering some of the Coors inflation that's happening elsewhere.

Yasmany Tomas - FD 3000 DK 4700 DFSTR 3100
He's a guy that makes things interesting at third on FanDuel and it's mostly because of the park. Tomas has been hitting in and around the middle of the lineup and should be there again against the lefty Matzek. Price has come up like the rest of his teammates as sites correct for Coors, but he remains pretty cheap all things considered.

Josh Harrison - FD 2500 DK 4200 DFSTR 5900
Another guy whose price is dropping into the silly territory. Harrison has been running so freaking awful this season with a .211 Babip and while he'll never be a big walk guy who can withstand some downturns in where his batted balls land, he is hitting leadoff against a below average arm. There is some concern about Harrison's LD% as it's down and groundballs are up which would explain some of his Babip issues. Those numbers do tend to normalize quickly so he could be having some other issues. But I love the lineup placement and depressed price.

Consider Kyle Seager on DraftKings at $3000. And Kris Bryant against the lefty Tyler Lyons is in a nice spot.

 

Outfield

Mark Trumbo - FD 4100 DK 5200 DFSTR 6200
A.J. Pollock - FD 3700 DK 4800 DFSTR 7300
Two guys who commit a ton of righty on lefty crime, Trumbo and Pollock both make strong plays against Matzek as they head into Coors. Their prices have adjusted some with the Coors factor, but not enough in my opinion. While they aren't necessarily elite plays because the cost has come up, they are still very safe in this matchup considering the ballpark. Both are worlds better against lefty pitching and I suspect both will be high percentage ownerships today because of the ballpark and splits factors.

Hanley Ramirez - FD 4100 DK 4900 DFSTR 7600
Mookie Betts - FD 3000 DK 4200 DFSTR 7100
Couple of other guys who hit lefties well and have a ballpark that helps hitters get away with some mistakes from the right side of the plate. I much prefer the two guys above and will have that combo in many of my lineups. But Hanley and Mookie offer a chance to get a way from Coors if you want to get a little contrarian.

Melky Cabrera - FD 2500 DK 4300 DFSTR 6500
I know, I know. We pick him everyday, but especially on FanDuel that price is simply too low for a guy with such a fantastic contact rate who hits second in the order. Melky is a solid cash game play because he puts the ball in play so much against righties. Though the lack of power does limit his upside some.

Consider Carlos Beltran who is coming cheap

 

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