Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/6/15

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Pitcher

Jon Lester - FD 8900 DK 9700 DFSTR 8600
Don't let that high 4's ERA fool you, Lester hasn't been bad this season. His xFIP is a solid 2.85 and his peripherals look a lot like the ones the Cubs saw when they signed him to the big contract. He's striking out a batter an inning and limiting the walks to two per nine. It's the Babip that's bitten him a bit as well as a slightly increased LD%. The latter is more concerning of course, but this is still a very good pitcher facing a Cardinals team that is striking out 23% of the time against lefties this season. You are getting Lester at a discount in some spots. Scoop him.

Lance Lynn - FD 8300 DK 8800 DFSTR 8000
The case for Lynn going against Lester is more a tournament one in that the strikeout potential is pretty high in this one. The Cubs go down on strikes almost 25% of the time against righties. Of course the rest of the time they are kind of mashing so the risk here is pretty high. Lynn is mowing down batters this season, striking out more than 11 per nine. This is wildly out of the box compared to his career averages so I'm definitely treading lightly here. But I do like him for the upside.

Consider Mike Leake if you are relaly trying to save a buck.

On the early slate Max Scherzer and Ian Kennedy look like the plays.

 

Catcher

Jason Castro - FD 2200 DK 3400 DFSTR 4700
The problem you will find up and down the positions today is that there are a bunch of decent arms on the bump and avoiding all of them will be real tough. Ultimately you might need to play some bats against above average arms. Castro though is coming real cheap against Colby Lewis in a hitter's park. He's increased his walk rate and lowered the strikeouts this season which are great signs. He's also running bad in Babip which has his price in the basement. Nice time to buy low-ish here.

Victor Martinez - FD 3200 DK 3800 DFSTR 6900
I know it's Sale on the mound, but this guy's price is bottoming out on FanDuel where he is now in the low 3K range. Even DK is getting toward the breaking point. I don't love tossing guys in there against stud pitching but there are some definite cost/ talent considerations here. I'm not saying I love it, but the system sure does.

On the early slate consider Michael McKenry if he gets the nod behind the dish against the lefty Robbie Ray.

First Base

Albert Pujols - FD 3000 DK 4000 DFSTR 6800
Remember when he was like, the best? Yeah me neither. But that doesn't mean we can't take a flyer here today. Pujols' price is scraping the bottom here, but I do think there are some reasons to buy. First off he's had very few PA's against lefties this season and his Babip in that small sample size is only .071. His batted ball profile is nothing to write home about as the LD% continues to drop while the fly balls increase. I get that this is a bad sign, but also understand that his price is so low in facing the lefty today that there is probably enough left in the tank to give yourself some upside here. He's not the old Pujols, but there is a price on everyone.

Carlos Santana - FD 3300 DK 4300 DFSTR 6400
He's better against lefty pitching and has a .373 wOBA and 144 wRC+ in that split over the last season. I know Danny Duffy has had some success this season, but he isn't a huge K guy. Carlos is coming in that lower middle tier and gives you some flexibility on DraftKings where he qualifies at catcher.

Early slate consider Ryan Zimmerman and spending up for Paul Goldschmidt

 

Second Base

Neil Walker - FD 2700 DK 4100 DFSTR 6100
He's well above average against righty pitching and has a fine enough matchup against Mike Leake who doesn't strike a ton of hitters. Walker's .364 wOBA and 135 wRC+ in this split make for decent buy lower candidate considering he hits around the middle of the lineup. I'm never a fan of rostering any second basemen, this slate included, but I think money is getting in decent on Walker.

Rickie Weeks - FD 2500 DK 3200 DFSTR 4700
Assuming he gets the start against the lefty C.J. Wilson then Weeks makes a nice splits candidate tonight. Over the last season plus he's put up an OPS close to .900 in this platoon which is about as good as you'll see from someone in his price tier.

On the early slate consider Aaron Hill

 

Shortstop

Jimmy Rollins - FD 2500 DK 3700 DFSTR 6000
Continues to run something awful in the Babip department (though he's never been a champ here to begin with) and hitting second in a high powered offense always has it's distinct advantages. Rollins won't continue to run this bad (presumably) and you are getting him at a significant discount tonight considering his early season struggles. I'm all over him here facing a low K guy in Wily Peralta.

Yunel Escobar - FD 2700 DK 3300 DFSTR 4600
Not a great hitter but he's able to get on base some and is hitting in fron of some pretty decent bats. The two hole in the order increases his plate appearance expectation and Tom Koehler is a rough shout on the mound. Koehler has a 4.71 xFIP on the season with peripherals that don't inspire. At a position that doesn't have much in the way of offense, defer to the guys hitting at the top of the order.

Troy Tulowitzki on the early slate is looking like a bargain all things considered.

 

Third Base

Alex Rodriguez - FD 3200 DK 4000 DFSTR 6200
Our system isn't as high on him today but the price seems very right for A-Rod. He's hit very well on the season considering the Babip is below his career number. His walks are up (though so are the K's) and he's put up an OPS in the mid .800's. He's actually a reverse splits guy for his career, but that is nitpicking as his career OPS in both platoons is over .900. Of course I recognize this isn't the A-Rod of old, but he's affordable in a great hitter's park against a weaker lefty.

Adrian Beltre - FD 2800 DK 4400 DFSTR 6700
Still coming very cheap on FanDuel where I'm willing to take him even on the worse side of his splits. Little closer on DK where I prefer A-Rod and some other options. But getting Beltre at a sub $3K price against an average arm in Deduno is enticing.

Consider Yasmany Tomas on the early slate.

Outfield

Not totally in love with what's happening in the outfield today. Feel like it's fine to go cheap here except for:
Mike Trout - FD 5300 DK 5200 DFSTR 8500
He'll cost for sure, but there is tons of other cheaper value on this slate. Trout is better against righty pitching, but Roenis Elias has a high walk rate and is average all around. I am mostly considering that many of the other bigger bats are in the tougher pitching matchups and the way most of the dollars are breaking down, you'll find yourself spending somewhere. He's the highest projected points on the slate so I think overspending a bit is fine.

Melky Cabrera - FD 2500 DK 4200 DFSTR 6500
I'm sorry but this guy just scores points every single day. He never hits the big time, but works so well as a safe play on any given slate simply because he gets on base, hits at the top of lineup and has a huge bat in Abreu behind him. A little steep on DraftKings but a total bargain on FanDuel.

Kevin Kiermaier - FD 2200 DK 4100 DFSTR 5500
David DeJesus - FD 2300 DK 3200 DFSTR 5600
Justin Masterson is so brutal against lefties that I think you can consider both of these guys coming very cheap. The Rays aren't necessarily a dynamic offense but they are facing a dude who's allowed nearly an .800 OPS to lefties over his career. And the sample size ain't small. I'm thinking you can get away going cheap in the outfield on this slate and both of these guys are interesting. Make sure you check how the Rays lineup looks before gametime.

Though he's probably not the Hall-of-Famer his early season would suggest, Joc Pederson is still a nice price on DraftKings. Also, Ryan Raburn is a nice punt against the lefty if he's in the middle of the order again.

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