Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/12/15

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Pitcher

Chris Sale - FD 9600 DK 9400
The good news is he hasn't been nearly as bad as the high 5's ERA would suggest. His xFIP is much lower, more in the mid 3's area. The bad news is that the xFIP is way above his career numbers. Sale's struggled with command but has doubled down on that by running bad in Babip. This has been a weird season for the dude and he's had some horrid outings. But that's why the price has really dropped and you have a unique opportunity to buy here. The Brewers are pulling some out of their offensive nose dive, but they are still one of the worst teams in the league against lefty pitching this season. Sale might not be his old self, but at these prices you can definitely take the risk.

Stephen Strasburg - FD 9100 DK 9200
This pick is going to look one of two ways. Either he is awesome and I look great or he gets totally blown up and I look like a donkey. There's no doubt he's been off this season, though it doesn't appear to be a major arm issue or the Nats would have shut him down. Instead they adjusted his back and he's here for his next start. I am mostly buying on price here as when he has it going he's an elite pitcher. It just hasn't been there this season. More a tournament play on the upside and I'm fully aware what Strasburg does to people in the DFS world.

A.J. Burnett - FD 8200 DK 8200
The Phillies are bottom feeders for a reason. They stink on offense and I don't expect much of that to change as the summer wears on. They have really no premiere bats, are weak hitters all around and the lineup really falls off a cliff in the bottom half. Burnett is a decent arm coming cheap against the worst offense in baseball. The peripherals are just good enough to consider and I think there is even a little safety here considering how much you can load up on bats with Burnett as your pitcher.

Consider Jake Arrieta against the Mets.

 

Catcher

Salvador Perez - FD 2600 DK 4000
Welcome to your every five day reminder that Nick Martinez stinks. I'll be playing Royals against the guy because he is the definition of smoke and mirrors. He strikes out less than four (I repeat, four) batters per nine and has an xFIP well behind his ERA. This guy just can't keep it up, right?

Victor Martinez - FD 3500 DK 4500
Of course he's only in play at catch on FanDuel, but this is a good matchup for V-Mart. He's incredibly difficult for righties to strike out as last season he posted only a 6% K% in that split. That works well against Kyle Gibson who doesn't strike anyone out, less than three batters per nine. Martinez is a favorite for contact in every single one of his plate appearances today.

Consider Michael McKenry or Wilin Rosario, whoever gets the start against the lefty.

First Base

Joey Votto - FD 3800 DK 4500
Haven't written too much about this guy this season, but that hasn't been because of his performance. He's having a fantastic season with an OPS well over .900. It's just that his price and matchup weren't always lining up. But they are tonight as he's facing a wild righty in Mike Foltynewicz who walks a ton of batters. That's a problem against an uber-patient guy like Votto who walks at a 15% rate. Great hitter's ballpark and I like Votto's price everywhere.

Mike Napoli - FD 2500 DK 3900
Coming real cheap against the lefty and that's where bro does all his damage. Napoli has destroyed lefty pitching and last season put up a .923 OPS and 167 wRC+ in that platoon. Drew Pomeranz is basically a league average lefty who can grab some K's and here and there. Love how cheap Napoli is coming relative to his slot in the order.

Pedro Alvarez - FD 2900 DK 4300
There are a fair amount of bad pitchers going today. Sean O'Sullivan is part of their ranks. Dude K's less than six batters per nine and has an xFIP in the high 4's. Alvarez is far from a safe play as he's a three true outcomes kind of guy. But that plays in tournaments today. He's going in a hitter's park and is way better against righty pitching where he's posted an OPS close to .800 for his career. Think he's too pricey on DK, but on FD he makes a nice cheap option with upside.

Strongly consider Kendrys Morales because of Nick Martinez blowing and all

 

Second Base

Dustin Pedroia - FD 2900 DK 3800
Another guy you'll see us feature quite a bit when a lefty is on the bump. Pedroia is a contact fiend when it comes to this platoon and his prices are so very low right now. He only has 28 plate appearances against lefties this season and has a .200 Babip in those trips to the plate. There is still some damage to be done for the guy and I think you are buying at a solid discount on both sites. Considering his .850 career OPS against lefties and you can see where you are getting money in good with Pedroia.

Neil Walker - FD 3000 DK 4400
Picked on Sean O'Sullivan with the Alvarez pick and Walker is very much in the same boat. He's an above average hitter who is slotted in the two hole in the Bucko's lineup. That leads to such great plate appearance expectation and considering his above average success against righties over the last few years you can play him in all formats. Walker had a .365 wOBA against righties last season and that's with playing half his games in a hitter's park.

Chase Utley - FD 2500 DK 3700
Would only have a lower Babip if he were hitting off a tee with the instruction to hit it weakly to first base every time. And even then his Babip might be higher than his current .101. That's running as bad as a player can ever run over his number of plate appearances. The price is way down because of it.

 

Shortstop

Troy Tulowitzki - FD 4400 DK 4400
I'm not typically buying Tulo away from Coors mostly because the price is too inflated thanks to where he plays half of his games. But he's seen a price dip over the short term and is totally reasonable on both sites, even a great value on DraftKings. He's facing a lefty in C.J. Wilson and this is the split where Tulo does a ton of damage. Even in the worse ballpark, adjusted for his production, he makes a solid play. And also, the rest of shortstop is a landfill of sorrow.

Alcides Escobar - FD 2500 DK 4300
He's not very good, but luckily neither is Nick Martinez. Escobar's value is almost entirely wrapped up in hitting leadoff. If it weren't for that we wouldn't even be talking about the guy. But there he sits at the top of the order and the extra plate appearance is worth the money especially on FanDuel where he's very cheap. Not as excited about DraftKings (really not excited for either to be honest, but so goes shortstop).

Erick Aybar - FD 2200 DK 3600
Doesn't do anything that well, but doesn't do anything real poorly either. How's that for an endorsement?

 

 

Third Base

Mike Moustakas - FD 2800 DK 4200
Felt like I had gone too long without reminding you how bad Nick Martinez is. Didn't want you to forget or anything. Moustakas is having a real productive season with an OPS in the mid .800's as he's dramatically cut down on his strikeouts. Expect that trend to continue in this game because Martinez isn't interested in having any of his opponents go down on strikes. He's cool like that.

Luis Valbuena - FD 2900 DK 3900
Really not a fan of third base if you can't tell from this recommendation. I mostly think you should go uber cheap at this position considering some of the other plays and matchups. If he can sneak into the top of the order all the better. But third base is for sure a problem on this slate.

Consider Aramis Ramirez

 

 

Outfield

Andrew McCutchen - FD 3800 DK 5300
A lot of folks started him on FanDuel last night and I don't know why that would change for tonight. He's in just as good of a matchup against Sean O'Sullivan and the ballpark boosts power to all sides. I wouldn't overpay on DraftKings where you can get some other guys with similar expectations in the same price range. But that being said, he has as much upside as anyone on the slate considering the park and matchup.

Adam Jones - FD 3700 DK 4300
I'd much rather get Jones' salary in on DraftKings against the lefty Buehrle who is epic trash this season. Dude fits the pitching mold today as he doesn't strike anyone out either. Less than 4 K's per nine is usually bad enough to be the worst pitcher on the slate but this is a special day as he's merely just another guy. The ballpark boosts Jones' power expectation and though he's fairly platoon neutral for his career, this is a great matchup.

Kole Calhoun - FD 3100 DK 4300
A really nice mid-range play against Kyle Kendrick, just one of the army of a thousand bad arms today. I suspect he's a bigger percentage start on FanDuel where the price is low, but the salary isn't out of the box on DraftKings. He isn't hitting for a ton of power this season but the price reflects as much.

Josh Reddick - FD 3700 DK 3700
Really in play for me on DraftKings where is among the best bargains of the day. He's facing Justin Masterson who is one of the worst starters in the league when it comes to facing left-handed pitching. Reddick is hitting in the middle of the order and definitely has some power upside. He's not out of bounds for me on FanDuel, but DraftKings he's almost a must.

Consider Coco Crisp on FanDuel where he's coming cheap. And Gregory Polanco is another solid play.
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