Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/15/15

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Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw - FD 11000 DK 11900
He is a heavy favorite to get the win today and I'll be making him a staple of cash game lineups. Ignore the ERA, this is the Kershaw we all know and love. His xFIP is a full two runs lower at 2.21 and he's basically run a little bad in Babip and a lot bad in his strand rate. As those two numbers start to even out you are going to see that ERA drop and drop. The Rockies are a good offensive team at home. And that's about it. Kershaw is the far and away best play at pitcher today.

There's a moderate log jam of arms after Clayton. Tough to get overly excited about any one of them, but let's take a look anyway.
Phil Hughes - FD 7900 DK 7400
He needs to be pitching at home for me to even start considering him (or at least in a pitcher's park). Because he relies on flyball outs, there needs to be a lot of real estate for those balls to land. The Rays are a weak hitting team that ranks in the bottom third of the league in team wOBA against righties. Hughes hasn't been putting up the K numbers like last year, but he continues to never walk a soul.

Clay Buchholz - FD 7900 DK 6800
Another xFIP All-Star who is coming cheaper because of some major ERA woes. Buchholz is the kind of guy who either has it and can pitch lights out, or you are spent suffering through a mental meltdown. The Mariners are a middle of the pack offensive team that strikes out 21% of the time against righty pitching. This group of pitchers is around to help pair with Kershaw on DraftKings or shoot some upside because they are priced incorrectly because they've run a little cold.

Chase Anderson - FD 6600 DK 6000
He's queitly put up some decent peripherals this season with about eight K's per nine with the walks under three. That gets the job done at these prices considering he's facing the worst team in the league at hitting baseballs. The Phillies are a disaster, and even accounting for some Babip issues they've suffered, they are still a bottom-feeding team that's weak up and down the lineup.

Carlos Rodon - FD 5800 DK 5600
If you really want to shoot some upside relative to price, then Rodon might be your guy. His first start saw him strike out eight over six innings. The A's are a decent hitting team, but this one's all about price. He's especially tempting on DraftKings where you can pair him with Kershaw and still make a decent lineup of hitters.

 

Catcher

Yasmani Grandal - FD 3000 DK 4200
You'll be seeing a decent amount of Dodgers in these picks mostly because Eddie Butler is a disaster rolled up in a baseball uniform. I know Butler's woes come from Coors, but that doesn't tell the whole story with the guy. He walks as many as he K's and is generally terrible. Grandal takes a ton of walks and has hit righties well over the last season or so with an .813 OPS in that time. Like the lower price here all things considered.

Brian McCann - FD 3100 DK 4000
If you are confused by Chris Young the pitcher, then believe me, you aren't alone. Dude has a sub one ERA but an xFIP well over four. And yet the peripherals don't look terrible. I am willing bet on him still sucking as his career xFIP of 4.80 would suggest, put I am bit perplexed. But good stadium for McCann who is moderately priced.

Robinson Chirinos - FD 2400 DK 3700
Over the last season plus Chirinos has been well above average against lefty pitching. His .360 wOBA and 127 wRC+ in that split play well considering he's coming close to punt prices on these sites. Like the upside at his salaries against Chen and he's going in a great hitter's park. Belt is much better against righty pitching and Jason Marquis isn't necessarily a power arm.

First Base

Matt Adams - FD 2300 DK 4300
Definitely gearing these picks with the idea of getting Kershaw in those lineups so that's why you'll see some cheaper plays that normal up and down this piece. Adams is one of those guys. He's facing Shane Greene who doesn't possess much in the way of strikeout ability and Adams is pretty much a min-play on FanDuel. Don't think I'll be looking his way on DraftKings, but he's the perfect FD cash guy because of the price.

David Ortiz - FD 2600 DK 3900
Even against the lefty I think you can consider this direction. Big Papi is actual decent against lefties for his career and has a 122 wRC+ over the last year in that platoon. This, like many of the plays in this write up, is strictly a price play.

Brandon Belt - FD 2700 DK 4200
Coming real cheap on FanDuel and is priced fairly on DraftKings. Belt is in a good spot against Marquis today considering Great American Ballpark is a hitter's haven. Belt is better against righty pitching and I love the power upside you get from this park. All three of these first basemen work easily into lineups with Kershaw and all hit near the top of the order which keeps their expectation high enough to be considered safe.

Second Base

Chase Utley - FD 2400 DK 3900
One day he'll pull out of the Babip basement and have something offer us DFS folks. Utley is running out of this world bad in the batted ball department with a crazy .115 Babip over a not-so-smal 120 plate appearance sample size. Of course, it takes a long time for things to normalize and he is grounding out too much. The latter piece is concerning as you won't see a monster spike in his batted ball average. But he's still unlucky any way you cut it.

Dustin Pedroia - FD 3000 DK 3700
He gets knocked a little because of the ballpark, but I do love Pedroia's price, especially on DraftKings. A solid cash game play because he walks as much as he strikes out and is having a solid year at the dish. Pedroia is OPS'ing over .800 and is much better against lefties for his career. Like I said, ballpark isn't ideal but his price is affordable.

Devon Travis - FD 3300 DK 3300
Hitting leadoff in a solid hitter's park against a slightly above average lefty. Travis doesn't have a huge track record but he's run a little bad against lefties on the season. Like him in the mid range and especially on DraftKings.

Consider Howie Kendrick

 

Shortstop

Jimmy Rollins - FD 2600 DK 3500
His price remains still very low considering how much bad luck he's had this year. One of the only Dodgers not peppering the ball right now thanks to a Babip under .200 on the season. Rollins is striking out a little much, but also has a 10% walk rate that helps mitigate some of his downside. Facing a weak arm in Eddie Butler and the top of the order placement helps him relative to the rest of the shortstop field.

Brad Miller - FD 2600 DK 3200
Really only in play because he's price so cheap and has been hitting second in the order. I don't love the matchup against Buchholz but the latter is prone to a blow up here and there. He strikes out at a somewhat obscene rate, but is about average against righty pitching. Again, shortstop is very weak so I'll grab guys at the top of the order whenever possible.

Consider Jose Ramirez against the left Wandy Rodriguez in a good hitter's park

 

Third Base

Josh Donaldson - FD 3800 DK 4500
Whenever there is a lefty on the mound and this guy's in the batter's box you better start paying attention. Over the last season and change Donaldson has an OPS over 1K against lefty pitching to go with a crazy .434 wOBA in that platoon. Dallas Keuchel isn't a bad pitcher, but Donaldson's success in this split is something that's almost too overwhelming. Love the ballpark for righty power and Donaldson's price doesn't break the bank considering his career track record and that he's been hitting in the two hole.

Adrian Beltre - FD 3100 DK 5300
Another straight up lefty killer. Beltre's been showing off some of the power stroke over the last week and today get's soft-tossing Bruce Chen who doesn't have any real strike out stuff to speak of. Beltre is close to Donaldson in terms of success against lefties with a mid .900's OPS over the last season. He's a little pricey on DraftKings where I prefer Donaldson by a mile. But on FanDuel there is some natural hedging possibilities considering he's a fair amount cheaper.

David Freese - FD 2700 DK 3400
Fantastic cheap option against the lefty Chen today. Freese has crushed southpaw pitching over the last year with a .911 OPS and .395 wOBA. There is some run hot in there, but this success isn't totally attributable to luck. He's been crushing the split and if you are rostering Kershaw, guys like Freese really help fill in the salary woes.

 

Outfield

Jose Bautista - FD 4500 DK 4500
If you are looking to spend bigger at the position tonight then Joey Bats is probably the way to go. He destroys lefty pitching for his career and is one of the best players in the game on that side of the split. His price has dipped down in the short term thanks to a lack of power after coming back from a short injury. Went yard last night, but the price is still in the buy zone.

Carlos Beltran - FD 2700 DK 4300
When he plays he's been hitting around the five whole (sometimes higher) and that's something you'll want to take a look at leading into game time. If he's in the two hole I think he's nearly a must play on FanDuel. If lower he's simply a decent value. Running a little bad especially in the Hr/FB rate this season, Beltran isn't exciting but does mix into a lineup that can put some runs up on the board in this game.

Alejandro De Aza - FD 2500 DK 3100
If he's hitting in the two spot again then I am almost definitely playing him on DraftKings where he would be one of the best values on the day on that site. He's been striking out too much this season, but that's less of an issue against Jered Weaver who has really seen that part of his game fall off a cliff.

Angel Pagan - FD 2800 DK 3700
Norichika Aoki - FD 2900 DK 4100
Gregor Blanco - FD 2200 DK 3300
Think Aoki will be back in the lineup today which would knock Blanco back to the bench. But I basically like whatever two of the three are starting here against Jason Marquis. They will all be at the top of the lineup, are coming very cheap and hitting in a solid hitter's park.

Consider Mike Trout though he's expensive of course.

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