Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/19/15

Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster.

 

Pitchers

James Shields - FD 8800 DK 9700
Tough day on the bump and most of the pitchers are coming on the cheaper side which means we will be able to load up on some bats. The big upside for Shields in this one is just how much the Cubs go down on strikes. They K more than 25% of the time against righties on the season, and though they are a decent hitting team when not whiffing, that upside on the strikeouts is a real thing. Shields is having an excellent season from a peripheral standpoint as he's putting down more than 11 batters per nine. The xFIP is behind the ERA so the price isn't totally in line with how good he's really been. This is the clear play for me on this slate as he has the added bonus of the great ballpark.

Anibal Sanchez - FD 8800 DK 8100
I'll start by saying that I don't love it compared to Shields who I will be playing almost exclusively on every site. But there are times to ad a second pitcher, or maybe you don't trust me or something. I don't know. Sanchez is interesting because his peripherals haven't been bad this season but the xFIP isn't totally there. The Brewers are in the bottom third of the league in wOBA against righties and strike out a bunch. Don't mind at all pairing him with Shields on DraftKings, though straight up on FanDuel it isn't close for me.

Jon Niese - FD 7900 DK 7500
The Cardinals have been below average against lefty pitching this season with an elevated K rate. If you are looking for a safe-ish play it's Niese. Not to say he is a sure thing, but he offers some upside at his prices considering the Cardinals' struggles with this split. I don't love that his K's are down and I'm not wild in general about this pick, but understand that this is a tough pitching slate.

Strongly consider Jason Hammel

Just killing time until fantasy football season? Fantasy Pros has a pretty cool mock drafting software you can check out!

 

Catchers

Yadier Molina - FD 2300 DK 3300
Not loving much about what's happening at catcher today which would explain why I am leading off with a guy who's not even at a .700 OPS on the season. But such is DFS and fantasy sports in general where we are forced to play players in certain positions whether we want to or not. Molina is better (relatively) against lefty pitching and faces Jon Niese who is an above average pitcher. Again, I hate the position, but dude's coming cheap and that's about all you can ask for.

Victor Martinez - FD 3200 DK 3900
Like him on FanDuel where he still qualifies at catcher. V-Mart is coming at a discount thanks to a really low .240 Babip on the season. He's still walking more than he's striking out which in and of itself is an amazing stat. The power is very much down which could be the byproduct of a lingering injury. Something to keep in mind, but his plate discipline makes him so safe considering he's hitting behind one of the best hitter's in the game.

Nick Hundley - FD 2700 DK 3400
I'll get into it more why I think we are buying low on the Rockies right now, but just know that Hundley falls into the same reasoning. He's about league average against righty pitching and faces a flyball pitcher in the world's best hitter's park.

 

 

First base

David Ortiz - FD 2900 DK 4100
Yovani Gallardo is a mediocre pitcher that can sometimes fool you, but not a ton. He doesn't strike out many batters and you are getting a pretty big discount on Bib Papi right now. Fenway depresses power to lefties which hurts Ortiz, but everything else is in his favor in this matchup. He's run a little bad in the Hr/FB while his LD% is actually up a bit this season. This is a great buy low opportunity and will be for the short term.

Jose Abreu - FD 3700 DK 5100
Feel like we write about this guy a ton, but that's because (at least on FanDuel) the price isn't where is should be when we talk about how elite his bat plays. Abreu isn't the most patient hitter, but his walk potential does increase against Trevor Bauer. And more importantly, so does the home run expectation. Bauer is a fly ball pitcher going in a hitter's park. I really like the upside on Abreu today who is, for the most part, platoon neutral.

Consider Justin Bour and Pedro Alvarez on the cheap

 

Second base

Robinson Cano - FD 3000 DK 4300
Insanely affordable on FanDuel and very much in play on DraftKings. On FanDuel I'd call him close to a must play considering the matchup and what Cano can do with the bat. Miguel Gonzalez is merely an average pitcher without a huge K%. Cano on the other hand is running incredibly bad in the power department with a HR/FB well below his career averages. The rest of his batter ball profile looks good to go, though the K's are up some this season. I'm willing to play him strictly on the price though. It's a total buy.

Chase Utley - FD 3000 DK 4400
Hate that he's been dropped to sixth in the order. Not what we wanted to see for the guy walking into Coors. If he climbs back up into the two spot then he is neck in neck with Cano on this slate. The Coors bump is of course the thing we look for in DFS, especially when we can get guys like Utley on the cheap because of some early season bad luck. Keep an eye on batting lineups heading into this one.

Neil Walker - FD 2800 DK 3700
More of just an off the board play that is off radars a lot of the time. But he hits high in the lineup and is an above average arm against righty pitching. Over the last season plus Walker has an mid .800's OPS in this split with a 136 wRC+. Those numbers play really well out of the second base slot and I like his DraftKings price.

 

Shortstop

Troy Tulowitzki - FD 4500 DK 4700
Though I much prefer him against lefties, you are still getting Tulo on somewhat of a discount right now. One thing to keep in mind for Tulowitzki is that about 2/3 of his plates appearances have been on the road. That makes a difference considering the effect Coors has on power. You will start to see his counting numbers climb as the PAs even out. Now that doesn't explain why he doesn't take walks anymore and why the K's are up. But he's back at home and the price has fallen. Nice spot for him.

Asdrubal Cabrera - FD 2400 DK 3600
As boring a fantasy player as they come, but that's okay because he does just enough to stay relevant. Has an advantage over many of his positional brethren as long as he's hitting in the top third of the lineup. That alone is more than can be said for many other shortstops. He's striking out too much on the season, but Mike Foltynewicz walks a ton of batters and has an xFIP in the fives. Cheap play with some upside here.

Erick Aybar - FD 2500 DK 3600
Aaron Sanchez walks more batters than he strikes out and is really just one of the worst regular starting pitchers in baseball. Aybar is boring like Cabrera, but is in a similar spot being cheap against a weaker arm. If I'm not spending up for Tulo then I'm trying to spend as little as possible at shortstop.

 

Third base

Josh Donaldson - FD 3600 DK 4700
Facing a lefty so you know we are on him. Over the last year, Donaldson has an OPS over 1K against lefties and that's with a Babip of only .275. Imagine if he got a little lucky? Hector Santiago hasn't been nearly as good as his sub 2.50 ERA would suggest as the ERA is actually in the mid 4's. Fantastic hitter's park in the Rogers Centre and Donaldson is a top play at the position tonight.

Adrian Beltre - FD 3200 DK 4500
Facing the lefty Miley in Fenway puts Beltre in a great spot today. I vastly prefer Donaldson, so I want to knock that out of the way to start. But Beltre is another lefty killer coming in among the middle tier of prices. The thing about Fenway is that it can help certain guys with power, but that monster turns screamers into doubles quick. Just something to keep an eye on, but Beltre is definitely on the right side of his splits here.

Maikel Franco - FD 2500 DK 4900
Our system is so very bullish on him in Coors that it's making me think I forgot to carry the one or something when running his projection. He's a top play on FanDuel considering the slot in the fifth hole and ballpark. Chad Bettis is no great shakes and Franco has real power upside. I would play Donaldson over him in a hearbeat on DraftKings so that's not really in play for me. But a middle of the order hitter coming near the minimums in Coors has him ripe for the picking on FanDuel.

 

Outfield

Mike Trout - FD 5200 DK 5400
Kole Calhoun - FD 2900 DK 4300
I know I mentioned it with Aybar, but I just want to take this time to reiterate how crappy Aaron Sanchez is as a pitcher. With a 6.87 BB rate through 38 innings, he ranks as one of the wildest pitchers around. He's actually run good with Babip which might be the only thing keeping him in the majors. These two guys are super plays today and I would venture a guess that Calhoun is the highest owned player on FanDuel. Because you are spending much on pitching, Trout is in play as well even at these higher tags. Great game to stack some Angels.

Carlos Gonzalez - FD 3200 DK 4500
Charlie Blackmon - FD 4000 DK 4500
Like Tulo, these guys have some of their numbers down a bit thanks to rain outs and missed games at Coors. They haven't gotten a full compliment of plate appearances in that Mile High air and that has effected their numbers. Again, it doesn't tell the whole story, but you can rest assured there will be some power upticks as they play more games in Denver. Aaron Harang is more of a flyball pitcher which you know can spell disaster in this park. With Blackmon hitting leadoff and CarGo hitting (presumably) third or fourth in the lineup, you have a great stacking option. Love CarGo's price on FanDuel especially.

Coco Crisp - FD 2200 DK 4200
Love his FanDuel price as a cash game option simply because he's hitting leadoff against a weaker Roberto Hernandez and is coming at the minimums. Much too low of a price there, though I'm not touching him on DraftKings.

Ryan Raburn - FD 2200 DK 2700
If he gets the look against the lefty Quintana and is hitting anywhere near the middle of the lineup then I really like him as a punt play. Especially on DraftKings.

Strongly consider Jose Bautista at the big money against a lefty.
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