Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/20/15

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Pitchers

This is a good time to mention that the pitching situation today is beyond gross.

Tyson Ross - FD 8900 DK 9000
The strikeouts are elite, the walks not so much. Ross is a feast or famine play on any given slate because his stuff is electric but it also gets him in trouble. He issues too many free passes and it stops him from going late into games. Tonight he has the ballpark as a huge advantage as it allows for him to make mistakes in the zone. And the Cubs strike out at an ungodly 25% rate against right handers. I like the price and matchup against Wada and am usually willing to take the chance on Ross.

Drew Hutchison - FD 7500 DK 7200
The Angels are dead last against in the league in team wOBA against righty pitching this season. That's tough to believe until you see how bad their lineup gets after Trout. And how bad it is before him. Hutch has been putting up solid K numbers this season and the xFIP is trailing the ERA by a ton, almost the biggest gap in the league. I'm willing to play him even in the Rogers Centre.

Chase Anderson - FD 6500 DK 6100
See what I mean about the pitching? It's a load-up-on-bats kind of day when you start looking at Chase Anderson as a viable pitching option. The case for him is he's going in a great pitcher's park against a team that's in the bottom third of the league against righties. The Marlins strike out more than 21% of the time against righties and Anderson strikes out about seven batters per nine and has an xFIP in the low 4's. On most days I'd completely ignore him, but these are strange times.

Just killing time until fantasy football season? Fantasy Pros has a pretty cool mock drafting software you can check out!

 

Catchers

Derek Norris - FD 3000 DK 3600
Two things going for Derek Norris and some other Padres today. Tsuyoshi Wada is coming off the DL and has been shellacked by righty pitching in his short career. He's allowed a .346 wOBA in that split and the sample size isn't exactly super small. Norris is a lefty killer for his career and has had a .402 wOBA in that split over the last season and change. He's cheaper on FanDuel and really inexpensive on DraftKings.

Mike Zunino - FD 2400 DK 3500
Welington Castillo - FD 2200 DK 2600
Not positive who will get the start for the Mariners today now that they've traded for Castillo, but I'd be willing to roster either one on the cheap against the lefty. Both of these guys are better against lefties with Castillo showing an enormous amount of success in that split. I actually think he gets the nod against Chen and the ballpark boosts power for righty bats.

 

 

First base

David Ortiz - FD 2900 DK 4500
Had him as a top play yesterday against Gallardo and he obliged with a home run. Going back to it again in the matchup versus Phil Klein who looks and sounds more like an insurance agent or history teacher than he does a major league pitcher. Ortiz is still coming at a super discount on FanDuel and at his points/$ there he's close to a must play. Been running a little bad this season and it's time to buy.

Joey Votto - FD 3600 DK 4600
I hate the ballpark, but I love the matchup for Votto. He's facing Jeremy Guthrie strikes out an absurdly low 3.27 batters per nine this year. That is beyond the pale in not striking batters out. Votto is a huge favorite to make contact today and is coming at more than fair prices. He's having a solid season and Guthrie's 5+ xFIP makes me over look some of the ballpark concerns.

Jose Abreu - FD 3600 DK 5500
Another day, another potential Jose Abreu play on FanDuel.

 

Second base

Dustin Pedroia - FD 2700 DK 4200
His price on FanDuel is starting to bottom out. Not as clear a play for me on DraftKings, but the former's price is getting close to the breaking point. Pedroia's running a little bad with the Babip on the season, though he's helping himself as his walk rate has bumped a bit. I am a little concerned with his LD% as it's taken a dip. This could be nothing, or it could be lingering wrist issues. But hitting in the second spot against Phil Klein is a solid spot for Dustin.

Neil Walker - FD 2800 DK 3900
He's just a solid hitter whose price never seems to come around. Isn't flashy by any means, but gets the job done on a regular basis. I don't love the ballpark for Walker, but do love the matchup against Pelfrey, who is awful. Big Pelf is striking out batters at a Jeremy Guthrie rate. They might as well be the same guy. When a batter has this much contact expectation the floor really comes up.

Rickie Weeks - FD 2200 DK 3400
Keep an eye on if he gets the start against the lefty Chen today. Weeks is coming at or near the minimums and is very productive in this split. He has an OPS close to .900 over the last season or so against lefties with a .390 wOBA. That kind of production for these prices is very much worth a look.

 

Shortstop

Troy Tulowitzki - FD 4400 DK 4500
I think he's somewhat of a no brainer considering you don't need to pay up for pitching. There are some cases for cheaper guys, but Tulo is coming at a huge discount thanks to some recent struggles. But remember, the Rockies have plays about 2/3 of their games on the road this season thanks to a string of rainouts. He hasn't been able to hit in the Mile High air. Severino Gonzalez has been bad in limited service time this year. Probably not as ugly as his 10+ ERA, but he isn't good. It's Tulo or bust for me at shortstop.

Ian Desmond - FD 2800 DK 4200
If he sticks on the second spot in the order then you can for sure take a chance on Desmond. He strikes out way too much to be considered anywhere closet to safe. But that expectation decreases a bunch with Adam Warren on the mound who K's less than six batters per nine. Desmond's big draw is his slot in the lineup and the extra plate appearances that come with it. Wouldn't consider him on DraftKings with Tulo in the same price range, but on FanDuel he offers some upside at his price.

Consider Erick Aybar if he's still hitting leadoff

 

Third base

Trevor Plouffe - FD 2500 DK 3800
He's an above average hitter against lefty pitching with a .775 OPS and 118 wRC+ against the split over the last year plus. Plouffe faces Jeff Locke who is about as average as they come. If I am looking to load up on some outfield bats then Plouffe has upside at these prices. I don't love the third base position as a whole which is why I'm willing to go a little cheaper here today.

Maikel Franco - FD 2500 DK 4400
Still in play on FanDuel because of the price and ballpark, but not so much on DraftKings. I don't trust paying that much for a guy that's relatively unproven even with this super thin air and balls screaming out of the park on the regular. Franco is a raw talent so there will be some patience involved, but his price on FanDuel allows for it as the downside is somewhat limited considering the ballpark.

Will Middlebrooks - FD 2200 DK 3100
Don't mind taking a shot on him at the minimums against the lefty Wada. Middlebrooks is a K machine and really isn't that good. But he's been running somewhat bad on the season and is better against lefties. More enticing on DraftKings where he is so very cheap.

 

Outfield

Carlos Gonzalez - FD 3200 DK 4600
Charlie Blackmon - FD 3900 DK 4600
I like CarGo much more but am grouping them together because the considerations are the same. They are facing a weaker righty in the best hitter's ballpark known to man, as well as most extra-terrestrial species. Both are coming somewhat discounted considering their numbers don't reflect a full compliment of games in Coors. CarGo is especially cheap on FanDuel and seeing as how he was one of the highest owned players yesterday, expect more of the same today. Rockies stacks are in the works.

Kole Calhoun - FD 2900 DK 4400
Mike Trout - FD 5100 DK 5700
Have Trout under Calhoun for a reason. Calhoun is the clear value play as he was yesterday when he went yard. Trout is your spend up option. I don't love the matchup against Hutchison because of the latter's strikeout potential, but I really love the ballpark. The Rogers Centre is one of the best hitter's parks in baseball and boosts power in all directions.

Steve Pearce - FD 2800 DK 3700
He's been running very bad this season but there's room for hope. Pearce is a guy who's crushed lefties over the last season. His OPS is over 1K in that split. And even with some good luck in that sample, the truth is that he can hit in this platoon. He is way off radars right now which is exactly why I want buy on the guy.

Matt Kemp - FD 2800 DK 4300
System really likes him, but I'm skeptical. Kemp looks all kinds of weird. He's not hitting for any power. Now that's to be expected some from the ballpark, but his Hr/FB rate is less than 3%. Plus the groundballs are up. Just buyer beware here.

 

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