Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 5/20/15

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Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks

Analysis
Note: Because of the short, two-day slates, this is the same analysis that appeared in our first write up.
I suppose if you are a Cleveland native you are somewhat confused about your lot in life. On the one hand, Lebron came back and is turning up the awesome in this playoff run as he puts the team on his back. On the other hand, he shouldn't have to except for injuries to the next two best players on the team. With no Love and now and ailing Kyrie, the Cavs' chances in these playoffs took a definite hit. They did themselves a favor by closing out the Bulls a game early and giving themselves an extra day of rest. Because they'll need it against the Hawks who have home court advantage in this series.

Now home court for Atlanta isn't the same as other teams because it isn't a city living and dying with NBA basketball. But it will still be tough on Cleveland in this matchup. They'll have to contend with a balanced team that can put it to you in a number of ways. The Hawks aren't an elite bunch, but they are balanced and that could be a problem for Cleveland that's very top heavy. I'm having trouble getting a good read on what this series is going to look like.

 

Elite Plays
LeBron James - FD 11700 DK 11400
The most expensive play on the slate and it isn't by accident. He's taking a lot of shots in these playoffs. In the last two games against the Bulls he put up 23 and 24 shots respectively. The burden of the offense falls on him with Kyrie banged up and no love. It'll be interesting to see how Atlanta defends him, though they'll be mismatched almost anyway they go. My only hesitation with playing Lebron is the price as I think I'd rather play Steph and Harden together. But who would blame you for playing the King? He's putting this team on his back.

Jeff Teague - FD 7200 DK 7300
If Kyrie is hobbled even a little bit and the Hawks play Teague a full compliment of minutes then you are looking at a steal of a play here. He's been awesome in these playoffs when on the court and turning in a high volume of shots and usage. I'm expecting that to continue as he'll create matchup problems if Kyrie can't defend him. Our system thinks he's one of the best points/$ plays on the slate.

Tristan Thompson - FD 5400 DK 5800
Minutes, minutes, minutes. Rebounds, rebounds, rebounds. That's the story for Thompson who's filled in admirably for Love. He brings a totally different element to the game than Kevin in that he scraps down low for every missed shot. Dude grinds and the Cavs will need him every minute in this series. He's rebounding at a high rate and everything he can put in with points is a nice bonus.

 

Value Plays
Iman Shumpert - FD 4800 DK 5200
Just getting so much run that you almost need to play him at these prices. Shumpert does little bits of everything across the box score which is a huge boon considering his salary is close to the punt range on these short slates. His minutes are the key as Cleveland has played him 40 or above in closer games. That's tough to pass up on.

Paul Millsap - FD 8800 DK 8200
I'm adding him to the value plays and not the elite plays for a reason. I don't love his points/$ expectation, but you might be in a spot with saving at other positions that playing him is the prudent move. That's because the power forward position is a little thin on this slate and there will be some money to spend. Millsap rarely hits the stratosphere, but I do expect bigger minutes out of him.

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors

Analysis
Man that was an exciting game one. Somewhere around the middle of the second quarter I started thinking, "Golden State might be in trouble here." They were down double digits and struggling on both ends of the court. Flash forward about three and a half minutes and all of that was forgotten. The Warriors can score at such a rapid-fire pace that almost no opposing lead is safe. When they start raining threes, pushing the tempo and clamping down on defense it is very tough for other teams to come up for air. The Rockets showed as much. They sagged for a bit in the second quarter, allowed Golden State signs of life and that's what the Warriors needed to up the tempo.

This isn't to say it was all bad for the Rockets. They hung close for sure and could make a series out of it. Losing Dwight Howard definitely hurt their interior presence and allowed Golden State to attack with small ball for much longer stretches than if dude had been on the court. He should be back in game two. The Rockets will have to play near perfect to keep this a series, but they showed in game one that they can at least keep pace with the scoring.

 

Elite Plays
James Harden - FD 9900 DK 9500
He was just a beast in game one, coming very close to a triple double. With Howard out a lot of the game, Harden carried even more of the burden than usual and was up to the task. He played nearly the entire game which should happen again in game two. The Rockets will need every minute and bucket out of him to keep up with the Warrior scoring. Harden didn't get to the line as much as he usually does, so look for him to penetrate more in game two. But he was efficient from the mid range and did give Klay Thompson fits. He's the top dollar for dollar big money player if he's getting this kind of run.

Stephen Curry - FD 10100 DK 10400
Threw a couple of daggers towards the Rockets during this game. The halftime buzzer beater was a thing of wizardry as he was locked down by Capella, found the tiniest sliver of breathing room and buried the three. This is the story with Steph. You can't allow him an inch because he'll fire up a three and destroy your soul. For the big money it's still Steph and Harden for me.

 

Value Plays
Shaun Livingston - FD 2000 DK 2600
The Warriors went small for a long time in this game and Livingston reaped the most fantasy rewards from this shift. He played almost thirty minutes and finished with an 18/7/3 line that made him the value play of the day by a mile. I don't know if the Warriors will be able to play this lineup as much if Howard is fully back in game two. But it was for sure interesting. Even if Livingston's minutes are in the low to mid twenties he's a solid play at the minimums.

Josh Smith - FD 5800 DK 5400
Started and saw minutes in the high twenties. I really like his midrange salaries on this slate because that can often be the hardest dollar range to fit effectively. He played well in game one, but the big stat for me was the sixteen shot attempts. If he's going to see anywhere near that kind of volume then he's a super solid play at these tags.

Andrew Bogut - FD 5200 DK 4800
Had him as a value leading into game one because I thought he'd see more run in trying to defend Dwight. When Howard went down, Bogut's minutes did as well. With Dwight coming back for game two, I'm willing to roll Bogut again on the minutes upside.

Jason Terry - FD 3300 DK 4300
Still coming cheap and taking just enough shots to be interesting.

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