Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/26/15

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Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw - FD 11000 DK 12200
The Braves are a tough bunch to strike out, and they’ll be throwing their ace. Those should be your only real concerns when it comes to paying for Kershaw tonight. The fact that Madison Bumgarner took him deep last time out is only indicative of the bad homer luck that is artificially inflating Kershaw’s ERA this year. His K rate is actually up, and while the walk rate is up too, it’s not problematic. There are a lot of really good pitchers in the game right now and the gap between CK and everybody else may be shrinking, but this is still the best pitcher in the game and should be in cash-game consideration every time he takes the mound.

Danny Salazar - FD 9300 DK 9100
It’ll be interesting to see how much love Salazar gets tonight from the DFS community. I’m guessing he’ll be a pretty popular play in tournaments, and I’ll be trotting up out with at least one lineup. He’s striking out 12.37 per game right now and the Rangers are a tick over league average in K-rate against righties, so the upside is bananas. He’s been a high-variation guy at this early stage in the career, but he’s really had only one bad start since getting the call in mid-April and he’s not walking people this season. If that control is real, this is an ace at a relative bargain in a favorable matchup. You’ve got plenty of options when it comes to pitching tonight, but I think you’d be well advised to work Salazar in somewhere.

Clay Buchholz - FD 8000 DK 7700
Speaking of high-variation guys. Good luck figuring what you’re getting out of this dude on any given night. The upside is there, especially on a per-dollar basis: he’s striking out nearly 10 per 9, the walk rate is down, his BABIP appears due for favorable regression, and he’s getting ground balls. All of the preceding is why his xFIP is outpacing his ERA by a run and a half. The reason somebody with those credentials can be had at this price point is because when he’s bad, he tends to be awful. He’s had nine starts this year, and in four of those he’s tallied fewer than 10 fantasy points. In two of them he had less than 3. For that reason, I wouldn’t recommend over-investing, but the Twins strike out a ton and are near the bottom of the league in OPS against righties, so it’s not a bad spot to use him.

Consider: Madison Bumgarner, if you’re looking for an alternative to Kershaw.

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Catchers

Yan Gomes - FD 2700 DK 4100
I’m usually hesitant to throw guys back into my lineups immediately after a DL stint, but our projection system scoffs at my reservations. On a pretty rough slate for catchers, it’s got Gomes as the best option for production plus value. He returned to the Indians lineup Sunday and sat for the early game yesterday, so he should be good to go tonight. Keep an eye on the batting order. Gomes was slotted in the middle of the order before his injury, but hit seventh Sunday, and batting in the lower third is a drag on production. Going against Wandy Rodriguez, I'm thinking he might be elevated, as the lefty-heavy Indians could use a solid right-handed stick higher in the order, and since 2012, Gomes owns a .871 OPS against southpaws.

Salvador Perez - FD 2600 DK 4000
Perez never walks. That’s about the only hole I find in his offensive game. He makes ridiculous contact, has good enough pop, and is super cheap. The only thing holding him back from must-play status is the fact that he seems pretty entrenched in the No. 7 hole and the RvR matchup. But while Perez shows the predictable preference for lefties, his splits are respectable against righties, and Adam Warren brings nothing to the table that scares me away.

Consider: Yadier Molina

 

First base

Lots of intriguing cheaper plays here tonight.

Jose Abreu - FD 3300 DK 4900
The projection system and I are of the same mind on Abreu; we’re just not buying that all the power he displayed last year has suddenly deserted him. His slugging percentage is down about .100, but he’s still homering at a respectable pace, and his batted ball profile looks remarkably similar to last season everywhere except home run-to-fly ball ratio. That’s where Rogers Centre comes into play. The Blue Jays’ home park is a well-established launching pad, and R.A. Dickey is getting clobbered this year. I understand if you’re tired of hearing us say it, but this is a good spot to use Abreu.

David Ortiz - FD 2800 DK 4600
Two things lead me to Papi tonight: the price and Mike Pelfrey. Regarding the latter, don’t buy that respectable ERA for a second. Everything about the peripherals says Pelf remains a marginal talent (at best) and will be fighting to keep the ERA under 5.00 by the time September rolls around. Ortiz is closing in on 40 and is not the guy he used to be. But much of those wretched numbers you see are a product of his epic struggles against lefties this year. Against righties? .295/.419/.526

Consider: Chris Davis and Adam Laroche for big-fly potential on a budget, and Matt Adams as an ultra cheap play with respectable floor/ceiling combo.

Second base

Robinson Cano - FD 2600 DK 3600
Wow. I have to wonder if this is where the price bottoms out on Cano this season. It’s been a tough year for the erstwhile king of the keystone, but it’s hard to imagine he’s gonna remain below a .300 wOBA for the entire year. Our projection system is sticking with him and last night’s pick paid off: as of this writing he’s got two hits and two RBIs. With a better matchup tonight, I think we’ll see his ownership rates rise, and soon enough, the price will, too. As we’ve said before, Cano’s best days are likely past. But when the price and matchup is right, he can still be a rock-solid DFS play.

Logan Forsythe - FD 2600 DK 3100
But maybe you’ve been burned by Cano too many times. I get that. If so, take a look at Forsythe for the same price. Kinda quietly, he’s been very good this year – at least relative to the position. Good BABIP luck? Sure, but he’s also showing dramatic improvements in avoiding Ks and drawing more walks. He’s typically more of a cash-game type but, I’d feel safe playing him in just about any lineup going against a lefty.

Consider: Neil Walker

Shortstop

Jose Reyes - FD 3000 DK 4200
DFS players, rejoice. A wellspring of hope in the wasteland that is the shortstop slot in your lineup. Reyes is back at the top of the Jays’ lineup and looked like himself in his return last night. The one thing that hasn’t returned is the price. He’s coming at a steep discount, and even though Reyes has historically shown a mild preference for righties, against John Danks (4.95 xFIP), I’m not thinking twice. He’ll be my primary guy at SS tonight.

Troy Tulowitzki - FD 3900 DK 5300
We’ve talked about it before, but the projection system just wants to reinforce the message: everybody just needs to settle down a little bit about Tulo. He’s still awesome, and assuming health (I know, I know) he’s still likely to be the game’s most productive offensive shortstop. Let’s give that K-rate a little time to stabilize before we work ourselves into a panic. And you’re getting a good deal here. The price is way down off his Coors rates, but Great American Ballpark is also a great place to hit, and Reds starter Michael Lorenzen boasts the always fun combination of poor control and an inability to strike people out.

Consider: Brad Miller

 

Third base

Josh Donaldson - FD 3700 DK 4600
Possibly my favorite play of the night: a high-floor/high-ceiling hitter, in a homer-friendly park, on the good side of a platoon against a mediocre arm. At mid-tier prices, this one’s easy.

Mike Moustakas - FD 2700 DK 3900
Possibly my second favorite play of the night (seriously). Another case of everything lining up just right, as Mous will get ample opportunity to take advantage of Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch against Adam Warren. After a couple of pretty brutal years, the former prospect appears to be in the midst of his long-awaited breakout campaign, with improvements pretty much across the board. Why his price remains this low is an utter mystery to me. Where I can’t afford Donaldson, I’ll have no problem using Moustakas tonight.

Strongly consider: Danny Valencia if he’s in there against the lefty.

Outfield

Adam Jones - FD 3000 DK 4500
Jones hasn’t put up any monster games in a while, but on the whole, this is still the exact same player who has averaged about 30 HRs and a .285 batting average over the last three seasons. Actually that’s not entirely true – he’s cut his strike out rate from 19.5% last year to 11.4% this year. It’ll take some time for those numbers to stabilize, but the fact remains, Jones is still a very good Major League ball player. Equally true: Scott Feldman is not. Also, Jones is pretty much split-neutral, and while Camden Yards isn’t as awesome for righties as it is for lefties, it’s still a pretty good place to hit.

Carlos Gonzalez - FD 2900 DK 4200
We had CarGo pegged as a top play yesterday, but he was a late scratch. If he’s back in the Rockies’ lineup tonight, get him in yours. The park is great, the pitcher is bad, and the price is right.

Seth Smith - FD 2200 DK 3500
The projection system is calling for a pretty rough go of it for Alex Colome against the lefties atop Seattle’s lineup. Smith's ceiling is limited by Tropicana Park and his own lack of home-run power, but if you’re spending on pitching, you’re gonna need to get out cheap somewhere, and Smith presents a nice option. He draws his share of walks, and owns an .811 OPS against righties since the beginning of last season.

Consider: Cheap flyers on Michael Cuddyer and Melky Cabrera.