Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 6/13/15

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Pitchers

Early
Chris Archer - FD 10500 DK 11800
Price has just about caught up with this performance this season, but it is going to be awfully tough fading him on this early slate. Archer's been magical with a crazy 11.71 K/9 rate while only walking about two batters in that same set. His xFIP is just above two and he's basically the most dominating pitcher in the American League so far this season. The White Sox rank in the bottom third of the league against righty pitching and strike out about 20% of the time. The ballpark helps Archer as Tropicana depresses power all the way around. The easy cash game play here in my mind.

Gerrit Cole - FD 11000 DK 10700
I do have to say though that Cole makes things interesting on this slate. He doesn't strike out the batters at the rate Archer is putting them down, but Gerrit's been pretty damn impressive this season. His 2.70 xFIP is about a run worse than the ERA and I think you are paying more for the ERA which scares me some. But the Phillies are a bottom-feeding team. Cole's a slightly better play points/$ on DraftKings so if you are looking to hedge some, run him there.

Late
Zack Greinke - FD 10400 DK 10500
Let me start by saying I think this is a total overpay for Greinke. And if there was really any other live arm going on the slate, I wouldn't be looking in Zack's directions. But there isn't, so I am. Greinke doesn't really strike out enough batters to warrant a price tag this high but he's up here because he's run really hot with his ERA. The xFIP is about 1.5 runs worse. But the Padres are a bottom third team in the league against righties. And again, there aren't many viable pitchers on this slate. I think you can fit his salary and he projects for the most total points so you can go for it.

I suppose you can consider Mike Leake and C.C. Sabathia but neither inspire a whole helluva lot of confidence

Just killing time until fantasy football season? Fantasy Pros has a pretty cool mock drafting software you can check out!

 

Catchers

Early.
Jonathan Lucroy - FD 2500 DK 3700
If the Brew Crew stay committed to batting Lucroy leadoff like they did last night then he is basically a must play at these prices. It's really not even close. No other catcher is going to get that kind of plate appearance expectation and he's priced near punt levels. The BABIP is more than a hundred points lower than his career averages so he's run bad this year. He doesn't strike out a ton, or really walk so I expect that contact to produce more as the BABIP normalizes. No other catcher for me on this slate.

Consider Evan Gattis as a GPP play or if Lucroy sits.

Late
Yasmani Grandal - FD 3000 DK 3400
What we love about Grandal, and we always say it, is the walk rate. Dude lives for the free pass as he's taking base on balls more than 15% of the time this season. I don't mind that at all against a guy like Ian Kennedy who can take a walks on the wild side every once in a while. Grandal will be back in the lineup tonight after sitting yesterday. Not a ton of power, but one of the better offensive catchers in the game.

Consider Jarrod Saltalamacchia

 

First base

Early
Adam Lind - FD 2700 DK 4500
Not a ton to love about first base on this slate. There are a lot of guys overpriced, in bad pitching matchups, or both. Lind fits a need here as he won't crush your cap on FanDuel (little pricey on DK) and is going in a great hitter's park. Joe Ross is a live-ish arm with a small major league sample size. I'm going to lean the way of the hitter in this one. Lind's having a fine enough season with an OPS in the mid .800's, can take a walk and rocks a .211 ISO. He's much better against righties for his career and is in a solid spot today.

Pedro Alvarez - FD 2800 DK 4200
Like him in a tournament for the power upside. He can dial up the power but will also go down on strikes a ton. That latter piece shouldn't be as big a concern with Sean O'Sullivan on the mound. The "O" in his name stands for the amount of batters he seems to strike out. O'Sullivan blows and K's less than 3.5 batters per nine. That's great news for Pedro in this one.

Late
Anthony Rizzo - FD 4500 DK 5400
You are spending up big here, but with some of the savings you'll find at other positions (or if you go with any pitcher other than Greinke) then Rizzo is clearly the guy. He's having a season to remember with an OPS well over 1K, a crazy .265 ISO and the ability to walk more than he strikes out. He's putting it all together this season and is in elite status in terms of hitters right now. Rizzo's tag has been way up there and he's pricey on DK today. But on the latter site you won't break the bank for pitching and I think you can fit the $4400 on FanDuel.

Consider Billy Butler and Adrian Gonzalez

Second base

Early
Neil Walker - FD 2700 DK 4100
Much of the same reasoning behind Alvarez applies to Walker as well. Namely that Sean O'Sullivan is such a garbage pile that we are going to want some Buckos in the mix. O'Sullivan's xFIP is over five and he's really not a major league pitcher. Walker is just kind of a regular hitter, but when he's in a good matchup and slotted near the top of the lineup against a weak arm then he makes a nice safer play.

Robinson Cano - FD 2400 DK 3600
Still buying totally on price. He's had fits and starts of contact over the last weak or so and is priced significantly under what he should be (I think). It can be hard recommending guys like this who have burned just about everyone at some point this season because of his weak start. But he's still hitting third, faces an extreme flyball pitcher Colby Lewis in a great hitter's park. I buying him again (like a crazy person I'm sure).

Late
Ben Zobrist - FD 2600 DK 3500
He isn't on a ton of radars right now but dude's really struggled with the BABIP on the season as that number is about 80 points lower than his career average. As a switch hitter, Zobrist is better against lefties for his career with a 124 wRC+ and .808 OPS in that split. Today he faces C.J. Wilson and should be in line for some points hitting out of the cleanup spot. You will be against the grain playing Zobrist but I love the safety in his skillset.

Consider Stephen Drew

 

Shortstop

Early
Alcides Escobar - FD 2300 DK 3400
God shortstop sucks so bad. My strategy has been to spend just about the least amount of money possible and move on with my life. Find a guy that'll head to the plate more than some other guys and hope he luck boxes into a hit or two. Alcides hits leadoff and is facing a lefty in Tyler Lyons and hits leadoff. That's about a good a case as you can make for any loser at this position.

Ian Desmond - FD 2800 DK 3900
It's near impossible to make a solid case for any other shortstop here. Tulo and Peralta are crazy over-spends. You really can't go there. Desmond's points/$ doesn't stink as bad as some other guys. How's that for making a winning case?

Late
Erick Aybar - FD 2600 DK 3500
Starting to sound like a broken record with this guy, but I don't really know how else to put it in my normally eloquent prose. Aybar isn't a good hitter, but the Angels appear intent on having him lead off every game. That doesn't make any sense, but we can at least use it to our advantage and play him at rock bottom prices. Like I've said for days on end, shortstop is like kicker in the NFL. We have to play it, but everyone hates it.

Consider Marcus Semien

 

Third base

Early
Joey Gallo - FD 3200 DK 3800
Gallo's biggest issue (by far) is his K rate. Dude's going down on strikes almost 43% of the time since being called up. 43%! An alarming number for sure. But today he faces Big Pelf, a dude striking out only 4.5 batters per nine this season. These are the kind of matchups where we want to target Gallo. Where his chances to K are greatly diminished. Don't get me wrong, he'll strike out in this one. But the chances are lower and he's got the legit power we dream about. Even with that crazy K rate he's still sporting an OPS over .800 thanks to a .219 ISO. Love the power upside here.

Aramis Ramirez - FD 2200 DK 3800
Appears semi-to-totally dead this season. Aramis's numbers look grizzly with an OPS hovering in the low .600's. Some of that is thanks to a BABIP much lower than his career averages. But it doesn't tell the whole story. He's coming so cheap though that I don't mind taking a chance on him against Joe Ross.

Late
Chase Headley - FD 2200 DK 3700
Here's to hoping he's hitting second in the lineup again. Girardi ran him out there last night and he could get slotted their again tonight. If so, this is really the only guy I'm feeling on this slate. He hasn't been great, but he's a punt play with some upside against crappy Bud Norris is a great hitter's park. Headley wouldn't have to do much to pay off these salaries and would be in a nice spot to do so with the plate appearance expectation and below average arm on the mound.

Consider Manny Machado

 

Outfield

Early
George Springer - FD 3600 DK 4900
I'm falling in love with Springer on this slate, especially on FanDuel where he'll be a staple in most of my lineups. Hitting leadoff, Springer is a three true outcomes guy who also adds steals into the mix. He's basically Adam Dunn with speed. Springer strikes out at a high clip but also walks 14% of the time. He faces a weak arm in Mike Montgomery who strikes out less than five batters per nine. Springer is in a great spot as he's pounded lefty pitching with a 163 wRC+ and .400 wOBA this season. Can you tell I'm in love here?

Lorenzo Cain - FD 2500 DK 3800
He's seen the price dip over the short term but this is a good spot to start buying on Cain. He is a much better hitter over the last two seasons against lefty pitching and his splits are looking fairly extreme in that sense. This season he's got a .400 wOBA in that split and has run a little bad of late. Still hitting in the middle of the lineup and facing Tylor Lyons, Cain isn't a guy we've looked at too much this season because the price has been a little out of bounds. Not anymore. Nice time to buy.

Gregory Polanco - FD 3000 DK 4400
The upside for him is in his wheels Polanco already has 16 stolen bases on the season and looks to run when he gets on base. Do wish he'd find a way to actually get on base more, but he makes a solid mid tier guy against Sean O'Sullivan. The Pirates should be able to get something started today and I don't mind some mini stacks in their general direction.

Consider Carlos Gomez and Gerardo Parra

Late
Mike Trout - FD 5200 DK 5300
Kole Calhoun - FD 2700 DK 4100
I'm buying both of these guys against Kendall Graveman; he of the 5.27 K/9 rate and 4.77 xFIP. Both Trout and Calhoun are better against righty pitching for the their careers and the latter is especially affordable on FanDuel. Trout, while obviously expensive, is a a guy we can always consider paying up for when he's facing a weaker arm. That's the case here for sure. Both guys will fit a lineup need and Trout is the one guy I'd consider paying up for over Rizzo only because first base can get filled with some power easy. Calhoun is a near automatic for me on FanDuel and is definitely in play on DraftKings because you won't break the bank for pitching.

Consider all of the Orioles' righties against Sabathia today as upside plays. Take a look at the lineups beforehand.

 

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