Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Yahoo and Victiv 8/5/15

Two slates on this Wednesday with a mini in the afternoon and a medium-sized one in the evening. Lot to get into, so let's get started.

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Pitchers

Early Slate
Danny Salazar - FD 8800 DK 11400 Victiv Yahoo 54
Opponent- LAA (Santigao) L Park- @Ana
He's never an easy guy to trust and if you've been playing DFS for long you've probably been burned by him before. Such is the way with a guy like Salazar who has some insane stuff, but falls prey to fits of wildness (or getting blown up for a disaster inning). This isn't the best matchup in the world, but he's by far the best pure stuff pitcher on the slate. The Angels are a middle of the pack team against righties, striking out right around 20% of the time in this split. Salazar's been filthy at times this season with a K rate over 10, basically limiting the walks and working an xFIP in the low 3's. I'll take him over a similarly-priced Hector Santiago all day long without hesitation.

Late Slate
Madison Bumgarner - FD 11400 DK 10600 Victiv Yahoo 54
Opponent- Atl (Perez) R Park- @Atl
You're spending up on pitching for this slate and there's almost no way around it. The funny thing is, none of the expensive pitchers are necessarily fantastic deals, but I think you need to pay for the raw points regardless. The middle tier of pitching is pretty gross so fitting the big salaries into your lineups is important. Bumgarner faces a Braves' team ranked 26th in the league against lefty pitching on the season. They are a weak hitting bunch with no real righty power bat to speak of. Madison continues doing pretty much what he goes out and does every single season. He's striking out more than a batter an inning, limiting the walks and the xFIP is under three. He's just this kind of pitcher. And by "this kind of pitcher" I mean "a really damn good pitcher". The tag will cost you, but there's enough savings in an among the bats to make it happen.

Matt Harvey - FD 10900 DK 11000 Victiv Yahoo 52
Opponent- Mia (Phelps) R Park- @Mia
It's been a rather disappointing season for Harvey coming back from injury as he's struggled at times with command. The numbers are still good mind you, it's just that you are paying a premium for his services when he hasn't been an elite arm. Has a chance to make up for some of it today against the Marlins who rank dead last in the league against righties. The ballpark really helps Harvey as well considering power is a very tough thing to come by in Miami. This one isn't a lock as I have some concerns about Harvey in general, but I love the matchup and park.

 

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Catchers

Early Slate
Mike Zunino - FD 3000 DK 3600 Victiv 4300 Yahoo 11
Opponent- Col (Rusin) L Park- @Col
You might get a little overloaded with Mariners' plays today, but such is the case with a small slate and one fantastic ballpark in the mix. He strikes out a ton and rarely takes a walk. Those aren't encouraging numbers, but he's better for his career against lefties (though below average still). This is a little bit over the value zone for me, but there aren't a ton of other options here. Still coming cheaper on DraftKings.

Consider Yan Gomes against the lefty

Late Slate
Yadier Molina - FD 2200 DK 3200 Victiv 4300 Yahoo 12
Opponent- Cin (Holmberg) L Park- @Cin
Because you'll spend some more at pitcher today, you're going to need to find savings in other parts of the lineup. Molina's one of those low risk/ low reward type plays that can work in cash games. He's just a tick below average against lefty pitching over the last couple of years though the risk is mitigated because you don't allocate any real dollars his way. He doesn't strike out much in this split and David Holmberg isn't a guy prone to actually getting batters to swing and miss. Like saving some hear and moving on.

Yasmani Grandal - FD 3400 DK 3500 Victiv 4900 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Phi (Harang) R Park- @Phi
If you do want to spend a little more, Grandal against Aaron Harang in Philly makes for a fine enough play. He's especially affordable on DraftKings where I think I'd play him over Molina. Grandal has an .850 OPS and 14% walk rate over the last two seasons against righty pitching. It's his better split by far. Many Dodgers are in the discussion on this slate so you'll hear more about them as we roll ahead.

 

First base

Early Slate
Carlos Santana - FD 3200 DK 3700 Victiv 5200 Yahoo 16
Opponent- LAA (Santigao) L Park- @Ana
I'm much more inclined to play him on DraftKings where the price is as low as you're bound to see it in the short term. As a switch hitter, for his career, Santana is a better bet against lefties with a 134 wRC+. Over the last couple of seasons that's been the case as well, though he's really struggling in this split this season. The ISO's bottomed out and the lack of power is obviously hurting him. Hector Santiago's been living off a super low BABIP against this season as his xFIP is more than a run and a half higher than the ERA. It might never catch up with him, but I don't mind betting against the guy.

Consider Adam Laroche

Late Slate
Adrian Gonzalez - FD 3300 DK 3900 Victiv 5400 Yahoo
Opponent- Phi (Harang) R Park- @Phi
Remember a minute ago when I was mentioning how many Dodgers you were likely to see on this slate? Here's another example. I know we've mentioned him a great deal in picks over the last couple of weeks. It's not lost on me. He's been consistent, if not fantastic in that time with the long ball really missing. That's the one thing keeping the price in check. He's not going yard. But he's facing a flyball pitcher in a solid power park in Citizen's Bank. The price is what I'm all over as I don't see a lot of comparable value at the rest of the first base position. The player pool gets limited with so many big arms going so we need to take the upside plays when we can get them.

Consider Mark Reynolds on the cheap

 

Second base

Early Slate
Logan Forsythe - FD 3400 DK 3900 Victiv 4700 Yahoo 15
Opponent- CWS (Rodon) L Park- @cws
This is definitely an overpay, and of all the guys in this price tier in our picks today, Forsythe would probably be the first to go if I needed to save a little money. But he's a much better hitter against lefty pitching with a .341 wOBA and 124 wRC+ over the last couple of seasons in this split. Those aren't elite numbers, hence paying a little too much here. But it's a hitter's park against a less-than-formidable opponent. Much better deal on DraftKings than on FanDuel.

Consider Jimmy Paraedes

Late Slate
Anthony Rendon - FD 3000 DK 3300 Victiv 5100 Yahoo
Opponent- Ari (de la Rosa) R Park- @Was
Though he's a righty, Rendon doesn't have extreme splits and has had a fair amount of success against right handed pitching over the last couple of seasons. The OPS is over .800 with a .356 wOBA. Those a fine enough numbers for a guy coming on the cheaper side and hitting second in the order. While Rubby de la Rosa hasn't been as bad as the mid 4's ERA would suggest, he isn't an overpowering pitcher. The K rate is in the mid 7's which isn't elite, though it does knock down Rendon's expectation some. This, like many other guys on the slate, is a price play.

Consider Howie Kendrick

 

Shortstop

Early Slate
Jose Reyes - FD 3400 DK 4700 Victiv 5300 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Sea (Walker) R Park- @Col
Pitching not going to cost you really anything on this slate so you'll want to load up when possible. Reyes is by far the highest shortstop expectation on this slate and that's even with a tough matchup against Taijuan Walker. Coors is the name of the game on this slate as you'll be loading up on the park whenever possible. There are for sure some other guys to target at other positions, so you don't need to completely overdo it. But he's hitting near the top of the order in the best power park in baseball. Even with Walker on the mound, you should probably pay up for Reyes.

Consider Marcus Semien

Late Slate
Couple of interesting plays at this position today. Which is more than you can usually say about this offensive wasteland

Jimmy Rollins - FD 2500 DK 3300 Victiv 4700 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Phi (Harang) R Park- @Phi
Now that he's hitting leadoff again, Rollins jumps right back into the value conversation. That slot in the lineup is so valuable for anyone, but especially a super cheap shortstop. Rollins isn't an offensive dynamo by any means, but that plate appearance expectation out trumps almost any other fault he's got. As we said for some of the other Dodgers on this list, this matchup againt Aaron Harang really favors the hitters. The park helps with power across the lineup and Rollins, from the top slot in the order should be considered across the board.

Jhonny Peralta - FD 3000 DK 4000 Victiv 4700 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Cin (Holmberg) L Park- @Cin
I also don't mind spending up a little for Peralta here as well. He will cost a bit more than Rollins, but is very good against lefty pitching and David Holmberg is one of the worst around. In 30 IP this season, Holmberg is striking out only 5.4 per nine and walking nearly as many. Dude's xFIP is in the high 5's and he's a guy we want to put money in against whenever possible. There aren't a ton of righties to target in the Cardinals' lineup, but Peralta makes for a nice play hitting in the middle of the order.

Third base

Early Slate
Evan Longoria - FD 3200 DK 4000 Victiv 5100 Yahoo 17
Opponent- CWS (Rodon) L Park- @cws
He's faced a string of lefties lately which is why he's been in the picks quite a bit over the short term. Dude, for all of his troubles, can still hit in this split. He has a 148 wRC+ and .894 OPS against lefties this season and those numbers are legit. They're in line with his career averages and his price gets pulled down because he's sucked against righty pitching. Facing the erratic Carlos Rodon today and Longoria makes for a cost-saving play at a weaker position.

Late Slate
Kris Bryant - FD 3100 DK 4200 Victiv 4600 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Pit (Locke) L Park- @Pit
It can be tough hanging with a guy like Bryant because the strikeout rate means you'll see a lot of O'fers from the dude. But he's put up a .233 ISO and .352 wOBA against lefties in his limited service this season and he does take a 14% walk rate in this split. Jeff Locke isn't a big strikeout pitcher which has me on Bryant even more. He's a great price on FanDuel and a fair enough value on DraftKings. As he's locked into the top three in the order, I think he's safer from that respect. I'll have him almost across the board on FanDuel and I like the Cubs in this matchup.

Consider Yunel Escobar if you want to go super cheap

 

Outfield

Early Slate
Nelson Cruz - FD 5600 DK 6200 Victiv 6300 Yahoo 21
Opponent- Col (Rusin) L Park- @Col
Austin Jackson - FD 3000 DK 4300 Victiv 5000 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Col (Rusin) L Park- @Col
Mark Trumbo - FD 2200 DK 4000 Victiv 5300 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Col (Rusin) L Park- @Col
Let's not even pretend to mess around with the outfield today. All three of these guys are in play against the lefty in Coors. Chris Rusin actually hasn't been terrible all things considered, but these are three guys who are significantly better against southpaws and all come rather affordable considering the pitching situation. Cruz is especially dominant in this split with an OPS over 1.000 over the last couple of seasons. Trumbo is an extreme split guy as well and is coming at punt prices on FanDuel. I suspect he's in the lineup today. Jackson, hitting leadoff makes a nice midrange play and you can fit all three into most lineups today. I'm not messing around too much with other games and parks on this baby slate.

Consider Brandon Guyer and Joey Butler coming on the cheap

Late Slate
Andre Ethier - FD 2700 DK 3000 Victiv 4000 Yahoo 14
Opponent- Phi (Harang) R Park- @Phi
Yasiel Puig - FD 2800 DK 3400 Victiv 5100 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Phi (Harang) R Park- @Phi
At the risk of putting every single Dodger on the list, I just went ahead anyway and put every single Dodger on this list. What do you want from me? They are all coming so cheap and face a middling starter in a good park. Ethier is especially cheap on DraftKings while Puig remains an upside play at these prices as long as he's in the lineup. They are both well above average against righty pitching over the last couple of seasons with 123 and 147 wRC+'s respectively. I get that you can't play all of the guys in blue today, but I really can't overstate how much of a bargain most of their lineup is on this slate.

Gregor Blanco - FD 2400 DK 3000 Victiv 3700 Yahoo 8
Opponent- Atl (Perez) R Park- @Atl
Angel Pagan - FD 2200 DK 2900 Victiv 3900 Yahoo
Opponent- Atl (Perez) R Park- @Atl
Norichika Aoki
I'm putting these three guys together today because I'd be willing to play whoever is hitting at or near the top of the order on this slate. All three have lower ceilings because of their batter profiles, but all three are coming cheap against a very weak arm in Williams Perez. He's a mid 4's xFIP guy with a lower K rate and a walk rate up near 4.5 per nine. None of these guys is a threat to go deep, but they all make good contact against righty arms. Like I said, check the lineups prior to game time and play the ones at the top of the order so you can save some bucks.

Strongly consider Dexter Fowler and Chris Denorfia
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