Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Victiv 8/25/15

Big old Tuesday slate rocking today with some quality arms and plenty of value in the bats. Let's not waste any time with my typically hilarious and high level banter. On to the picks.

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Pitchers

It's an interesting day for pitching. There are some mid-tier and even very cheap guys who could well outperform their price.
Stephen Strasburg - FD 10000 DK 10000 Victiv
Opponent- SD (Shields) R Park- @Was
James Shields - FD 8900 DK 8900 Victiv
Opponent- Was (Strasburg) R Park- @Was
So these guys are facing each other meaning I wouldn't necessarily advise playing them together on a site like DraftKings. But both are coming right next to each other in terms of points per dollar through our system. Shields has underperformed his contract for sure, but remains an above average pitcher who's been bitten by the long ball this season. The Nats are a middle of the pack team against righties and are prone to striking out. Shields is K-ing close to ten batters per nine though he struggles to stay in games late because of the walk rate. Mostly a price play for me here.

As is Strasburg who for all his early season tilt-inducing performances, has come back and pitched decently over the last three games. Even his full-season stats don't look too bad with a strikeout an inning and a low 3's xFIP. The strand rate kills him as when he gets guys on base and pitches out of the stretch it all starts to fall apart. The Padres rank among the bottom third of the league against righty pitching. I'm definitely a fan of Stras's DK price as he makes it easy to get some bigger bats into the mix. Look, both of these guys have blow up tendencies, but mixing them into games has some upside.

Noah Syndergaard - FD 10800 DK 10900 Victiv
Opponent- Phi (Williams) R Park- @Phi
If you got DeGrom'ed last night, count yourself in the majority of cash game players. He was a disaster for sure, getting rocked early by the Phils putting up negative points when it was all said and done. Nevertheless, we trudge on and I think Syndergaard is in play against Philly today. Thor has outstanding peripherals, striking out close to ten batters per nine and walking only two. The 3.13 xFIP has him among the better pitchers in the game. The Phils though have been hitting of late and the price on Noah is very steep. Honestly, our system doesn't love him, but he's a big favorite for the win with a high money line going in.

On the cheaper side of things, I think there's a tournament case to be made for Ervin Santana at a ridiculous $4700 on DraftKings against a weaker Rays squad. The same goes for Matt Cain at $5100 against a free-swinging and K-loving Cubs team. And finally John Lamb has put up ridiculous peripherals in his first two games. Don't get scared off by that ERA, the xFIP (smallest of samples) is in the mid 2's. I love the K potential at his prices. All of these guys are extremely risky, but even average games far outstrip their prices.

 

Catchers

Russell Martin - FD 2500 DK 3500 Victiv 4500
Opponent- Tex (Holland) L Park- @Tex
He's getting cheap all over the place and if you are rostering anything like an expensive pitcher then having Martin's middle-ish of the order bat against the lefty Holland makes for a decent value play. The Ballpark in Arlington is a big time power launching pad and Martin's hit lefties well over the last couple of seasons with an .822 OPS in that split. If he's hitting 5th or 6th then there's some upside for the dude, especially if the predominantly right Jays squad can get to the lefty early.

Jonathan Lucroy - FD 2800 DK 3400 Victiv 4500
Opponent- Cle (Tomlin) R Park- @Cle
Forever cheap Lucroy has been a guy we've been on like crazy over the last couple of weeks with the price trending all the way into the basement. He had some serious BABIP issues he needed to work out and that's evened out some in the short term with his last ten games finally seeing him not be an abject disaster. The price is still very much there against a very average Josh Tomlin.

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First base

Jose Abreu - FD 4100 DK 4800 Victiv 5700
Opponent- Bos (Miley) L Park- @Cws
James killed it on first basemen yesterday with Votto who walked and donged his way to value while Abreu simply donged his way there. Going back to the well with Abreu against the lefty Wade Miley who walks more than three batters per nine and strikes out less than seven. Abreu's mashed his way to a .396 wOBA against lefties over his career and put up an OPS over .900. U.S. Cellular Field is about as good as it gets for righty power. And though the rest of the White Sox lineup is almost entirely forgettable, Abreu is one shining light.

Freddie Freeman - FD 3200 DK 4600 Victiv 5200
Opponent- Col (Bettis) R Park- @Atl
Chad Bettis has been victimized some by having the unfortunate luck of pitching in Coors for half of his games. But it isn't like he's anyone we need to avoid and Freeman's an absolute bargain on FanDuel today. He hasn't done much since coming back off the DL, Freeman's tagged righty pitching for his career and especially over the last couple of seasons with an OPS creeping around .900. He takes a ton of walks and has put up a 147 wRC+. Like I said, this one is more about FanDuel where the $3200 price is going to show up a lot in cash games.

Mike Napoli - FD 2700 DK 3600 Victiv 4500
Opponent- Tor (Buehrle) L Park- @Tex
Makes a cheaper punt play against the lefty Buehrle if Nap is in the middle of the order.

 

Second base

Jason Kipnis - FD 3200 DK 4300 Victiv 5100
Opponent- Mil (Peralta) R Park- @Cle
Kipnis, much like Freeman, has come off the DL to a slow start. It's caused his price to really drop and he's another clear FanDuel play as long as he's hitting leadoff (and by that I mean, not sitting). Before the injury, Kipnis has been having a fantastic season with a .398 OBP and high .800's OPS. You won't see much better from a second baseman and he'll even swipe a bag every once in a while. Wily Peralta only strikes out about five batters per nine and keeps that xFIP in the mid 4's. This is another guy you'll see in a ton of FD cash games and for good reason. I'm not off the DK price, but he's a better deal on the former.

Kelly Johnson - FD 2400 DK 3000 Victiv 3500
Opponent- Phi (Williams) R Park- @Phi
He should be in the lineup against the righty Williams. He's a punt play for sure, but if you're rostering some bigger arms you will need guys like this. By no means a good hitter, he does hit around the middle of the order when he's in there and can handle righty pitching for his career. This is a hitter's park against one of the weaker arms in baseball. Johnson is especially cheap on DraftKing and Victiv where his floor won't kill you at the punt prices.

Shortstop

Jhonny Peralta - FD 2400 DK 4100 Victiv 4700
Opponent- Ari (Ray) L Park- @Ari
This is what James said yesterday and everything applies especially considering Ray was pushed back a day.
We've been giving you Peralta basically every day for a week, and last night, it paid off pretty well in spite of him actually not doing a whole lot. Here's the thing - Peralta is definitely in a little swoon here. But it's baseball(!) folks - these things happen. Thankfully, he's still batting toward the top of his lineup among some other guys that can really hit. He's also a guy who's been .050 OPS points better against left handed pitching for his career. And! He's hitting in quite a favorable hitter's park. Peralta is nothing like a minimum priced shortstop. He's 2nd in the majors at SS in homers. And he's cheaper than Alcides Escobar? Give me a break. I'll keep buying and buying, and don't suspect I'll regret it until his price climbs the (at least) 25% that it should.

Jose Reyes - FD 3000 DK 4200 Victiv 4900
Opponent- Atl (Foltynewicz) r Park- @Atl
Mike Foltynewicz is a name I hate typing and a guy who sports a mid 4's xFIP. He can snag a strikeout here and there, but also walks a lot of guys and is just an average arm in general. Reyes' value comes from hitting second in the order, a lineup placement most shortstops only dream of. At this point, he is what he is. A very average bat who'll steal a base on the rare occasion he gets on base. This isn't your older brother's Jose Reyes and we need to understand as much. But he isn't priced like that guy either and is coming real cheap on FanDuel. Price on DraftKings is still a little high considering some of the value you can get over there. But Reyes' plate appearance expectation is just about enough to make him a solid play at these prices.

Consider Erick Aybar on the super cheap.

Third base

Todd Frazier - FD 2800 DK 4100 Victiv 5000
Opponent- Lad (Wood) L Park- @Cin
Like Peralta, Frazier's writeup from yesterday by that wordsmith James holds water today. Here's what he said:
If daily fantasy baseball favors one skill in particular, it's a steady hand. This thing is a marathon, folks, it's not a sprint. It's a buy-and-hold business, not one where you are trying to hold your finger in the air and see which way the wind is blowing. So, yeah, these are my excuses as to why Frazier is on some tough luck recently. But still!
The same holds true of Frazier today against Alex Wood. Frazier's price is dumb on FanDuel where I see him as the far and away best points/dollar play at the position. He's been excellent against lefties for the last couple of seasons with a mid .800's OPS. Wood is a fine pitcher, but this one is all about the price. He's not a must play, but he's close.

Aramis Ramirez - FD 2800 DK 3400 Victiv 4300
Opponent- Mia (Hand) L Park- @Mia
Josh Harrison - FD 2600 DK 3700 Victiv 4700
Opponent- Mia (Hand) L Park- @Mia
One or both of these guys should be in the lineup against the lefty Brad Hand today and both make excellent values. Both are mid .800's OPS dudes over the last couple of seasons. Aramis has those numbers even with a putrid BABIP in the split. Brad Hand's a low K guy who gets rocked by righty bats. He's allowed close to an .800 wOBA this seasons to that platoon. The only thing I don't like here is the ballpark.

 

Outfield

Outfield's a little tough to parse out today. There are a lot of good arms going on this slate, and while I think some of the other positions have some clear cut value, it's not the case with the outfield.

Carlos Gomez - FD 2800 DK 3700 Victiv 5000
Opponent- NYY (Nova) R Park- @NYY
Price has bottomed out on Gomez and I see him as basically a must play. He's a well above average bat against righties and Yankee Stadium is a power park for righties and lefties alike (though obviously much more for the latter). Gomez has BABIP'd a terrible .241 since the All-Star Break, a string of bad luck that's led to this kind of pricing. For his career, Ivan (Super) Nova is actually worse against righty pitching which works in Gomez's favor as well. These prices for a guy hitting around the fifth spot having me wanting to weather the storm. There isn't much in Gomez's batter profile to suggest this is anything more than a slump (he's actually walking twice as much in the second half). These are the buy-low opportunities we need to take advantage of.

Andrew McCutchen - FD 4900 DK 4900 Victiv 5900
Opponent- Mia (Hand) L Park- @Mia
Starling Marte - FD 4000 DK 5000 Victiv 5300
Opponent- Mia (Hand) L Park- @Mia
I made the case for these two guys when I did the write up on Aramis and Harrison. Both of them are lefty killers in their own rights. They will cost you more than the third basemen for sure, but that's because they are better. Much better in fact. McCutchen is one of the best hitters in the game against lefty pitching. Marte on the other hand doesn't have quite the numbers as the third basemen, but makes up for it with the extra speed points. Again, like I said for the other dudes, the ballpark is the only thing giving me even a little pause as Miami does depress power significantly.

Mike Trout - FD 4600 DK 5300 Victiv 5800
Opponent- Det (Simon) R Park- @Det
Even at these prices I think Trout is affordable considering his MVP skillset and the fact that he's about the best hitter in the game against righty pitching. Trout's price dropped over the short term though is creeping back up thanks to a solid game the other night. He's still a bargain on FanDuel and DraftKings even though I know it's hard to think about these prices as values. They are. Alfredo Simon is a low K pitcher and only really Bryce Harper is better against righties over the last couple of seasons and it's only by percentage points.

Consider Hanley Ramirez

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