Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Victiv 8/30/15

Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo.

 

Pitchers

Stephen Strasburg - FD 10100 DK 10000 Victiv
Opponent- Mia (Hand) L Park- @Was
I can't even field questions as to whether there's a clearer play for double-ups and 50/50s tomorrow. Strasburg has been on point since returning from injury - 32 Ks again 3 BBs and a 1.73 ERA. That's the pure ace we were expecting coming into this season, and our projection system would have you believe that this is the guy we ought to have been expecting all along. His price is still depressed from his early season woes, making him one of the best buying opportunities in the game. And today? He also happens to have the definition of an ideal match-up. The Marlins are dead last in the majors when it comes to wOBA against right handed pitching, and they're trotting out a guy in Brad Hand who's got a dismal 4.51 career xFIP. I'm all in, here.

James Shields - FD 8500 DK 8500 Victiv
Opponent- Phi (Asher) R Park- @Phi
Shields isn't the guy he used to be, but recent struggles have him priced well below what you ought to be able to expect from him. His 3.54 xFIP is still better than league average, and his 9.64 K/9 this season is actually the highest of his career. And yes, that number is buoyed by pitching in the National League. But guess what? This game is being played against a National League team! And a really horrid one, at that. The Phils have been battling the Marlins for worst wOBA in the majors against RHP (they're currently tied for 2nd worst), and they actually strike out more against righties than the fish do. They also have the very lowest walk rate in the majors against RHP. For my fifteenth "also," there's Alec Asher. The 23rd ranked pitcher in the Phillies system, per FanGraphs. Love Shields for big tournaments, today.

Lance McCullers - FD 6700 DK 9300 Victiv
Opponent- Min (Santana) R Park- @Min
My favorite super cheap, big tournament only guy. McCullers is a pitcher with a true prospect pedigree, true put-away stuff, and a handful of very good starts we can point to in the majors. He's also laid a few real eggs. But that's just what you're hoping for in a punt play - a guy whose price is depressed by his bad starts to the point where his good starts become a great value. And it's not like he's exactly been bad. His 3.41 xFIP in these first 84 big league innings mean he's already a solidly above average big leaguer. This price is insane. As for the Twins, they've got the 6th lowest wOBA in the majors against righties this year, and the 8th highest K%. And they're starting Ervin Santana! Another dream spot if you're cruising for upside.

 

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Catchers

Buster Posey - FD 3000 DK 3800 Victiv 5100
Opponent- Stl (Garcia) L Park- @SF
The leader in my catcher clubhouse, and like Strasburg above, it really isn't close. The guys has a .934 career OPS against left handed pitching, and has struck out just one more time than he's walked this season. Jaime Garcia has actually not been bad this season - he's much the same rather good pitcher he's always been. But his pitch-to-contact approach shouldn't be able to out-do a hitter of Posey's caliber. If there's one fly in the ointment here, it's Garcia's heavy ground-ball ways. They'll limit Posey's upside some. Though I still suspect you can play him where you like.

Victor Martinez - FD 2400 DK 3400 Victiv
Opponent- Tor (Buehrle) L Park- @Tor
V-Mart is an absolute shell of his former self, this I know. But still. He's a near minimum player, and his performance against left handed pitching is worth a lot more. His underlying numbers are just fine - 8 Ks against 6 BBs in 90 plate appearances, and an .876 OPS against LHP are excellent. But what you really love here is the match-up. Mark Buehrle owns the league's lowest K/9 - 4.25 - and the Tigers should be able to put up a fine total. That means a high floor for Martinez, with some upside if he can run hot with counting stats.

Yasmani Grandal - FD 2500 DK 2800 Victiv 4300
Opponent- CHC (Arrieta) R Park- @Lad
If you want perhaps a little more upside with a certain increase in risk, you may want to consider Grandal. Grandal's got an .850 OPS and all 15 of us homers in 301 plate appearances against right handed pitching this season. Unfortunately, Arrieta is a pretty great pitcher. Simply a solid lightning in a bottle play, especially if you want to save up at the position.

 

First base

Jose Abreu - FD 3900 DK 5100 Victiv 5700
Opponent- Sea (Olmos) L Park- @Cws
Abreu is a guy our system has liked all season, and while he's certainly been up and down, he seems to be heating up recently. But let's not talk recently. This is BASEBALL! after all. But this is truly a dream match-up. He'll be hitting in his lovely home park, and batting against "Edgar Olmos." Haven't heard of him? Don't blame you. He's started 3 games (all in the minors) since 2012. He wasn't particularly good in his bullpen work. And he's supposed to deal with Abreu, and his career .925 OPS against lefties? Nah. This will be a bloodbath, if the baseball gods are watching.

Albert Pujols - FD 3500 DK 4300 Victiv 5000
Opponent- Cle (Tomlin) R Park- @Cle
This one feels strictly like an upside play, but I kinda like it. It comes down to this - Pujols has actually been better against right handed pitching this season, and Tomlin's been besieged by home run problems throughout his career. Pujols has 27 home runs in 386 plate appearances against righties this season. Not saying this is a sure thing, but the upside here is so thick I can taste it.

Freddie Freeman - FD 3200 DK 4400 Victiv 5100
Opponent- NYY (Eovaldi) R Park- @Atl
Freeman isn't a conventional upside play, but there might be more upside here than there appears at first blush. His season line is less than fantastic, but he's got an .888 OPS and 14 home runs in 267 PA against right handed pitching this season. Perhaps nothing to right home about, especially for a first baseman, but his OPS balloons to .930 at home. Eovaldi is basically a league average pitcher, and I think Freeman could take advantage here.

 

Second base

Anthony Rendon - FD 3400 DK 3700 Victiv 5100
Opponent- Mia (Hand) L Park- @Was
I tentatively gave you Rendon last night, and he decided to try and show me he warranted a higher ranking by doing just what our projection system pictured - hitting some hard hit balls, knocking someone in, and scoring a run. Well, the reason for my tentativeness was because of Rendon's less than stellar track record against right handers. Against lefties? He's about .050 OPS points better, and a significantly bigger power threat. Hand, and his career 4.51 xFIP stuff, is essentially a batting practice pitcher. This is an easy play for 50/50s, if I've ever seen one.

Brian Dozier - FD 3100 DK 4500 Victiv 5300
Opponent- Hou (McCullers) R Park- @Min
Hey now - I like McCullers today. I do. If you want upside, though? You can't ignore Dozier. Traditionally a lefty killer, Dozier has 20 homers and 8 steals in 391 plate appearances against right handed pitching this season. making him far and away the highest upside guy at the position. Could he take advantage of a young pitcher who has the occasional awful game? It's probably worth investing $3,100 on FanDuel to find out.

Kolten Wong - FD 2300 DK 3300 Victiv 4400
Opponent- SF (Heston) R Park- @SF
Your cheap double-up option for the day. Our projection system loves him on a points per dollar basis again today. His .779 OPS against right handed pitching is very solid for the position, and it's a more than fine number if you're basically paying minimum salaries. And then there's Chris Heston. The luster is well off the Giants' right hander at this point. He's walked more batters than he's struck out in his last month of starts, and he looks more like the so-so prospect he was in the minors than the ace-to-be silly people though he was earlier this season. Love Wong if you want to get away from the position cheaply, even if there isn't huge upside here.

 

Shortstop

Jose Reyes - FD 3300 DK 4200 Victiv 4400
Opponent- Pit (Morton) R Park- @Pit
Reyes had a bad run of BABIP luck against Happ yesterday, but that'll happen. Well, Reyes is still the same guy who averaged 4.3 FanDuel fantasy points per games in the 9 games leading up to it, making him the very best fantasy option at the position going right now. And, you can still get him for a very affordable price for the time being. I called for a 20% increase in price when he was at $3,000 last night, and while we already halfway there, I think we still have a buying opportunity here. Charlie Morton is an unorthodox pitcher, but probably still slightly below league average. I like Reyes in any format.

Jhonny Peralta - FD 2200 DK 3700 Victiv 4500
Opponent- SF (Heston) R Park- @SF
I don't know what to say - Peralta continues to disappoint, but the underlying numbers suggest that this is nothing more than a serious (and likely aberrational) slump. Like Reyes, Peralta piled up the at-bats yesterday, but couldn't managed to make any of the balls miss a glove. That's going to happen in this stupid game. But you're telling me that the guy with the 2nd most homers and 4th highest wOBA at the position should be a minimum priced guy? Hogwash. Another great match-up with Heston, and I'm still a buyer - especially while Peralta's batting 3rd.

Troy Tulowitzki - FD 3700 DK 4700 Victiv
Opponent- Det (Simon) R Park- @Tor
Tulo's been even worse than he had been in Colorado as a Blue Jay, and his price has suffered. Is he the same guy that he has been in the past? I actually would wager that he isn't. I won't touch him in my 50/50s or double-ups at these prices. But for upside? I guess I'm still a believer. Today he'll face Alfredo Simon, who followed up his random complete game with a more Alfredo Simon-esque -1.67 fantasy point performance against the Angels. What I'm saying is - upside! There's potenial for a huge game, here.

 

Third base

Evan Longoria - FD 2500 DK 3300 Victiv 4900
Opponent- KC (Duffy) L Park- @TB
Our system has been giving us Longoria as the top play of the position against left handed pitching since his price dipped to these levels, and his OPS against lefties was .860. Well, it's climbed to .964, meaning there have been a lot of happy Longoria owners along the way. Well, today he's facing arguably the worst lefty he's faced all season. The sad story of wasted potential that is Danny Duffy has only gotten sadder. His 4.94 xFIP would be the 3rd worst in the league, but Danny Duffy hasn't managed to pitch enough innings to qualify. He's wretched. I love Longoria here, for any format.

Todd Frazier - FD 2700 DK 4400 Victiv 5200
Opponent- Mil (Peralta) R Park- @Mil
We gave you Frazier as the top play of the day yesterday, in spite of how much better he is against left handed pitching. As of this writing, he's 2/3 with a homer through 5. Here's what I wrote:

Frazier is a lefty killer by trade, but at these prices, we can punch in his 16 homers and 10 steals in 400 PA against right handed pitching this year and figure he can still do a little something for us against the right pitcher. As for Garza, his decline has been precipitous. His K/9 is at a career low, his BB/9 are near a career high, and his HR/9 are at a career high. His 4.40 xFIP is an embarrassment to his legacy. This isn't a sure thing or anything, but the value might be too good to pass up.

Well, Peralta is an even worse pitcher than Garza. So, needless to say, our system loves Frazier yet again.

Josh Harrison - FD 2500 DK 3400 Victiv 4400
Opponent- Col (de la Rosa) L Park- @Pit
Another throw-back to yesterday's picks, and another guy whose situation is nearly identical to his spot yesterday. Well, de la Rosa is a worse pitcher than Rusin was, and Harrison makes a very safe play on a very cheap salary yet again. I pointed this out yesterday, but Harrison has walked as many times as he's struck out against left handed pitching this season, and he bats high in the lineup (2nd last night) when the Bucs are facing a southpaw. He should get lots of plate appearances here, and should have a similarly high floor.

 

Outfield

Mike Trout - FD 4100 DK 4900 Victiv 5100
Opponent- Cle (Tomlin) R Park- @Cle
I'm not sure I've seen a big money player with a points per dollar projection like this in a while, so I'll give a specific number even though we normally reserve those for subscribers. It likes Trout for an average projection of 3.78 fantasy points. Pretty amazing. What's driving such unbridled enthusiasm? Well, Tomlin's the rare righty who's allowed a higher wOBA against right handed hitting - his .334 wOBA allowed vs. righties is a very high number, if you follow this sort of thing. And Trout has always been better against right handed pitching as well. Sort of a perfect storm, and I love Trout in any format, if you can afford him.

Jay Bruce - FD 2600 DK 3400 Victiv 4600
Opponent- Mil (Peralta) R Park- @Mil
Another re-up from last night, but another one that very much worked out. Bruce, as of this writing, is 2/4 with a double and a homer, and showed exactly what he can do against terrible right handed pitching. He's been .100 OPS points better against right handed pitching for his career, and his homer upside against right handed pitchers without strike-out stuff is as good as it gets. And, as noted above, Peralta is an even softer pitcher than Garza is. You're getting all of this for just $2,600 on FanDuel. Did I mention that? An easy upside play, though the downside with Bruce is always present.

Carlos Gomez - FD 2900 DK 3800 Victiv 5200
Opponent- Min (Santana) R Park- @Min
Gomez has been particularly terrible since joining the 'Stros, but the price hate is just insane here. He's still got a double-double with 400 plate appearances, giving him a pretty solid upside profile in the right match-up. He's been .050 OPS points better against right handed pitching for his career, and bats 5th behind some guys who can get on base. And then there's poor Ervin Santana. His 5.05 xFIP might be generous compared to what he can actually do at this point - his K/9 and BB/9 are both at the worst of his career.

Brett Gardner - FD 3100 DK 4100 Victiv 4700
Opponent- Atl (Teheran) R Park- @Atl
Jacoby Ellsbury - FD 3200 DK 3900 Victiv 5000
Opponent- Atl (Teheran) R Park- @Atl
Two guys I picked yesterday who were colossal let downs. See? This doesn't work out every time. Well, both are modest power threats and excellent speed threats against right handed pitching, and they bat next to each other atop a potent lineup. If the Teheran name scares you, don't let it. He's devolved into a below league average pitcher this season, posting a 4.04 xFIP that actually gives him a pass on the kind of hard contact he's allowing. I'm comfortable calling these guys excellent 50/50 plays.

 

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