Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, StarsDraft and DraftPot 9/26/15

This is a huge sports Saturday with a double slate of baseball plus college football going all day. Feel bad for my wife and kids on days like this as I'll be "working" most of the day on watching sports. It's a tough job for sure.

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Pitchers

Afternoon Slate
Stephen Strasburg - FD 11000 DK 10700 StarsDraft
Opponent- Phi (Nola) R Park- @Was
I never stopped believing in you Stephen. I swear, it's been me and you buddy and there was never a doubt in my mind about your talent. Even when you were breaking my heart into a million little pieces earlier in the season, it wasn't doubt that caused me to throw remotes and huff around the house in a rage-filled stupor. It was just love. And now that love has been paid off the last couple of weeks as Strasburg returns to form. In his last three starts he's struck out 37 batters in 22 innings. That's elite stuff and he's looked dominant. Today he gets the Phillies, who will provide some spoiler stuff every once in a while, but I'm not worried about them today. Stras is a huge money line favorite on this slate and I don't see a reason to get away from him in cash games. I always believed in you buddy, keep paying off.

Late Slate
Julio Teheran - FD 8600 DK 8300 StarsDraft
Opponent- Mia (Nicolino) L Park- @Mia
I don't think you are going to need to pay up for King Felix on the late slate so hitting the mid tier of pitching should be an okay opportunity. The Marlins are dead last in the league against righty pitching this season and really have no threats to speak of. They are a light-hitting bunch and I'm actually a little surprised the money line is even in this game. It's not like the Braves are any great shakes, but this one seems like Teheran should be more of a favorite for the win. He's been solid over the last four starts, finally finding some of the strikeout stuff. He needs to limit the walks to stick around in the game. The ballpark helps for sure as it depresses power all around. Teheran and others in his price tier will allow you to spend up for some of the bats going in Coors.

Consider Jeremy Hellickson

Early Slate Special- Francisco Liriano in tournaments

Catchers

Afternoon Slate
Buster Posey - FD 3400 DK 4300 StarsDraft 5400
Opponent- Oak (Zito) L Park- @Oak
This one is a near lock for me on the early slate. He's coming at more than reasonable prices on nearly every site and even having to pay up for Strasburg wouldn't sway me too far off Posey. He's one of the few good offensive catcher-eligible dudes and he crushes lefty pitching. Over the last couple of seasons his OPS is right around .900 and the .381 wOBA is among the best in the league during that stretch. He's facing Barry Zito, yes that Barry Zito.

Late Slate
Yasmani Grandal - FD 3400 DK 3500 StarsDraft 4700
Opponent- Col (Kendrick) R Park- @Col
Wish he was hitting higher in the lineup, but rolling sixth or seventh and hitting in Coors will have to do. Grandal has been BABIP'd to death in the second half of the season. That number's at .256 and it's killing some of his upside. He's still walking more that 10% of the time so the patience is there, though so are the strikeouts. I'm less worried about the latter against a guy like Kyle Kendrick. And of course the ballpark always gives a power bump.

Early Slate Special- Evan Gattis on FanDuel

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First base

Afternoon Slate
Jose Abreu - FD 3900 DK 5000 StarsDraft 5500
Opponent- NYY (Warren) R Park- @NYY
Adam LaRoche - FD 2200 DK 2600 StarsDraft 4400
Opponent- NYY (Warren) R Park- @NYY
Getting one of the better parks on the slate with a weaker pitcher on the mound. Warren isn't a bum mind you, but he doesn't strike a ton of hitters out and is average across the board. Yankee Stadium helps lefties more for sure, but it's a power park for all hands. Abreu's moved up to the second slot in the order which helps his plate appearance expectation just a tad. And Laroche is an above average hitter against righties coming on the cheap if you need to save a buck (though you need to check he's in the lineup).

Late Slate
Adrian Gonzalez - FD 3900 DK 4400 StarsDraft 5600
Opponent- Col (Kendrick) R Park- @Col
Because I don't think you are paying up for any pitching on the evening slate, getting almost all of your money in on Coors is no big thing. In fact, on FanDuel I think you should easily play four Dodgers and on DraftKings consider getting a decent amount of their lineup in. The over/under on the game is about four runs higher than anything else on the slate (except for Min/Det). Kyle Kendrick strikes out less than five batters per nine and rocks an xFIP over 5.00. This is just the spot for a Dodger offensive onslaught.

Strongly consider Miguel Cabrera who is also a bargain today.

Early Slate Special- Chris Carter

 

Second base

Afternoon Slate
Dustin Pedroia - FD 3500 DK 4600 StarsDraft 5300
Opponent- Bal (Chen) L Park- @Bos
He's quietly put together a season right in line with his career averages, though of course he missed half of it because of injury. When on the field, Pedroia's OPS is in the mid .800's and he's continued to put in work against lefty pitching. This is a little expensive for Pedroia all things considered, but the rest of the position is very weak. I don't think you can pay all the way up on DraftKings (I'd probably play Anthony Rendon there, and you can consider Rendon on FD as well). But Pedroia is flying under the radar and has been hitting of late.

Late Slate
Chase Utley - FD 3500 DK 3600 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Col (Kendrick) R Park- @Col
On DraftKings he's the clear play as I think that salary really shouldn't be faded at all if he's in the leadoff slot again. On FanDuel I actually think it's a little closer as there are some solid options going at second base for the evening slate. The other reason to possibly get away from him on FD is if you run up against the problem of playing only four Dodgers. Utley might be the guy to set aside only because the guys below are coming so cheap. But not on DraftKings. If Utley's hitting near the top of the order again, then he is a must start over there.

Brian Dozier - FD 2900 DK 4400 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Det (Simon) R Park- @Det
Jason Kipnis - FD 2900 DK 4600 StarsDraft 4800
Opponent- KC (Medlen) R Park- @KC
These are two of the ways you can get away from Utley on FanDuel. Both are coming significantly cheaper and offer just as much points/$ value as Utley. They are both better hitters than Utley, though admittedly are going in much worse ballparks. It's the second piece that makes it closer. But both guys hit leadoff for their respective squads, are facing below average pitchers and have offensive skill sets perfect for cash games. Like I said, this position is close for me today on FanDuel. Really no way to go wrong here.

Early Slate Special - Jose Altuve

 

Shortstop

Afternoon Slate
Shortstop on this slate is a very hot mess.

J.J. Hardy - FD 2300 DK 2700 StarsDraft 4000
Opponent- Bos (Rodriguez) L Park- @Bos
Will cost you almost nothing and that's about the best thing I can say about the guy. He's been brutal on the offensive side of things this season and the splits against lefties don't leave a lot to be desired. But I wouldn't advocate paying up for some of the other shortstops going in the 4 PM hour. If for some reason one of the Mets guys finds himself out of the lineup basement, you can consider them as well. Again, shortstop here is real brutal and I'm not feeling comfortable with anyone here.
Late Slate
Jhonny Peralta - FD 2500 DK 3900 StarsDraft 4100
Opponent- Mil (Wagner) R Park- @Stl
Because. Just because. I'm sick of writing about it. It's become a joke around the DFSR offices. He's been underpriced for so long on FanDuel that we've written the case in as many different varieties as humanly possible. There are no other angles.

Cristhian Adames - FD 2500 DK 2000 StarsDraft 3200
Opponent- LAD (Anderson) L Park- @Col
If he's still hitting in the second slot for the Rockies because they are benching Jose Reyes, then the DK salary is a total joke. He's interesting on FanDuel was well, but coming at the bare minimum on DraftKings for really any player hitting second in the order in Coors is basically a must start. There's very little downside.

Early Slate Special- Carlos Correa

Third base

Afternoon Slate
David Wright - FD 3500 DK 4400 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Cin (Lamb) L Park- @Cin
When he's right, there are few hitters in the league better at hitting lefties than Mr. Wright. Over the last couple of seasons Wright's putting up a crazy .962 OPS and 171 wRC+. Those are elite numbers and rank right up there at the superstar level. The ballpark is right too as Great American plays as one of the best power pads in all of baseball. The only issue here is John Lamb who's a decent arm with a high K rate. He has a mid 3's xFIP which is perfectly acceptable. It's really Wright's history in this split that gives him the edge.

Late Slate
Justin Turner - FD 3400 DK 4300 StarsDraft 4300
Opponent- Col (Kendrick) R Park- @Col
Let the Coors love keep coming. Again, I don't know why we'd want to get away from the game on this slate and you shouldn't have really any issue fitting the salaries. Over the last couple of seasons Turner's been a reverse splits guy in a big way. He's been excellent against righties with a .392 wOBA and .901 OPS. It's a little BABIP heavy, but you don't put up those numbers in that sample size with luck alone. He's getting the job done and has been hitting around the middle of the lineup. This is another one of those mid tier price plays that is in an excellent power spot.

You can also strongly consider paying up for Nolan Arenado against the lefty

Early Slate Special- Josh Harrison

 

Outfield

Afternoon Slate
Steve Pearce - FD 2900 DK 4100 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Bos (Rodriguez) L Park- @Bos
He's hitting in the middle of the lineup right now for the O's and this is a guy you want to play when a lefty is on the mound. He's been running a little bad in the split this season, but over his career he's a mid .800's OPS guy and walks more than 10% of the time. Craig Breslow draws the spot start for the Red Sox tomorrow though it's unclear how long he'll go in the game. No matter what though, the O's should be facing some Breslow and then a lot of middle relievers for the Sox. Pearce is still coming cheap on FanDuel and makes a nice cash game play if you are rolling with Strasburg.

Brett Gardner - FD 2600 DK 4300 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- CWS (Danks) L Park- @NYY
Jacoby Ellsbury - FD 2700 DK 3900 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- CWS (Danks) L Park- @NYY
Going for a little lefty-lefty crime here. We don't throw this kind of play out a lot, but I think you can pull the trigger in this game. Both Ellsbury and Gardner are actually slightly above average over the last couple of seasons against lefties (just barely) while John Danks is an even splits pitcher for his career. The ballpark obviously really favors those lefty bats and both of these dudes are coming as punt plays on FanDuel.

Late Slate
Andre Ethier - FD 2900 DK 3300 StarsDraft 4200
Opponent- Col (Kendrick) R Park- @Col
He's a must start for me on this slate, every site. This is just too good of a matchup with him hitting around the 5-6 slot in the order. I just don't know why you wouldn't play him in this matchup, in this park. He's coming so cheap and has raked righty pitching this season with an OPS closing in on .900, 146 wRC+ and .381 wOBA. This one is easy and I'm not going out on any kind of limb with the recommendation. Carl Crawford's also in the mix if he's in the lineup again.

Nelson Cruz - FD 3700 DK 4500 StarsDraft 5600
Opponent- LAA (Heaney) L Park- @Ana
His price tag has come down a little bit in the short term, but that means it's a great opportunity to buy. There are only a handful of hitters in the league better at hitting lefties than Cruz. He's a superstar in this platoon and you are getting him at a moderate discount. Easy to fit his salary on every site. This is an opportunity to get away from Coors just a bit.

Early Slate Special- George Springer and
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