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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

10/21/2015
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft 10/21/15

Another night of playoff baseball, another night of... pretty darned similar picks. Sorry, there just isn't a lot we can do with the same teams playing the same opponents in pretty much the same ballparks. There will be a few slight differences, though. Enjoy!

If you're new to the playoff picks, I'll be giving you one play per position to whet your appetite. You can also grab a free trial of the projection system that makes these picks possible. Your free trial also includes access to our NFL and NHL tools - so get started today!

Pitchers

Jason Hammel - FD 7900 DK 8100
Opponent- NYM (Matz) L Park- @Chc
If there was ever a day when you can go cheap and load up on some bats with these short, playoff slates then this is the one. No pitcher on FanDuel is more than 9K. And for our purposes here, I think you can take a chance on the cheapest of the bunch. When you look through Hammel's game log, it sure doesn't inspire a ton of confidence, though his season peripherals do. He struck out more than a batter an inning, walked around two per nine and put up an xFIP in the very low 3's. Those numbers give me just enough of a glimmer of hope that he can pay off this salary. I know Estrada is the biggest money line favorite, but whenever possible I'd rather take the NL guy if for nothing else but they get to face the pitcher's slot.

With that in mind, if you don't go with Hammel, I'd rock Steven Matz for many of the same reasons. It's very much between those two guys for me.

 

Editor's Note: With these two game slates you are going to see a lot of repeat plays. There's no way to avoid it and the narratives don't change too much as long as the prices stay put. So please don't hate on the repeats here. There are only so many words.

Catchers

Salvador Perez - FD 2400 DK 3300
Opponent- Tor (Estrada) R Park- @Tor
Been a mainstay in these picks over the last week and it's not about to change today. There's definitely a case to be made for Russell Martin as well (and a Blue Jays' stack in general) but I'll opt to go cheap from the catcher's slot and load up in some other areas. Perez contributed to the onslaught of Royals' runs yesterday going 1-3 from a walk and a run scored before giving way to Butera late game. Go cheap here my friends and get ready to load up on those bigger bats further down the lineup.

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First base

Eric Hosmer - FD 3100 DK 4300
Opponent- Tor (Estrada) R Park- @Tor
Was the top first base play for us yesterday and he delivered somewhat with a 1-4 line including an RBI and run scored. Suppose you would have liked a little bit more considering how many runs Kansas City put up, but that line is fair enough. Let's go back to him today against Estrada. The ballpark is just so damned conducive to power and we want to get as much exposure to the Rogers Centre as possible. He's had a hit in every game of the series. And while neither I (nor our system) care about such things, I always take a little comfort when the recent results have been there.

This is also the day you can really pay up for Edwin Encarnacion

 

Second base

Ryan Goins - FD 2300 DK 2700
Opponent- KC (Volquez) R Park- @Tor
Bats last and generally stinks (comparatively at least, he's a better hitter than me of course) but I don't mind getting in some minimum dollars at second base with Goins. I suppose there's some upside to hitting in front of the top of the Jays' order, though the reduced plate appearance expectation cuts into that somewhat. You can make a case to not play Goins on FD because you simply want to max out your Jays' hitters with other better guys, but the price is right here.

Consider Ben Zobrist as well more in the mid tier of salaries. I like him because he hits second in the order, though his versus righty platoon is his worse side.

The elephant in the room: It's true, we haven't been recommending Daniel Murphy. How long can he keep up this Honus Wagner

 

Shortstop

These picks are going to be the same as yesterday
Alcides Escobar - FD 2300 DK 3300
Opponent- Tor (Estrada) R Park- @Tor
We've been giving you Escobar over and over and over again for something like 2 months. What are some fresh things I can say about him? Well, he's tripled and scored through 4 innings in Monday's game, and already more than paid off the consistently too-cheap prices. What really drives his value is the combination of where he bats in the order and the price. He's getting tons of plate appearances, makes a lot of contact, and bats in front of a lot of guys who can really hit. He's just not a minimum player, and I frankly don't know why the sites refuse to change him from one.

Troy Tulowitzki is also very much in play considering the state of pitching.

Third base

Josh Donaldson - FD 4600 DK 5100
Opponent- KC (Volquez) R Park- @Tor
It's always so hard to afford him on these slates if you want to pay up for any kind of pitching. And that the Royals haven't thrown any lefties out there yet does cut into Donaldson's expectation just a tad. But I'm playing him today almost regardless of which pitcher I throw out there. You can also make a strong case for David Wright but I've sort of picked a lane with these picks and I'm sticking to it. Donaldson is a beast of a hitter and really the only reason he's been left out of our picks is because we like to gear these toward lineup setting and I just didn't often see how you'd swing it. That's not the case today. He's had a fine enough series, going yard two games ago and chipping in some yesterday. Roll him against Volquez without hesitation.

Outfield

Jose Bautista - FD 4400 DK 5500
Opponent- KC (Young) R Park- @Tor
Ben Revere - FD 2800 DK 4500
Opponent- KC (Young) R Park- @Tor
Chris Colabello - FD 3000 DK 4000
Opponent- KC (Young) R Park- @Tor
Yes please. I'm stacking Blue Jays all over the place and playing these guys in the outfield gives you a solid expectation up and down a couple of different pricing tiers. They hit 1-3-5 in the order, and the Jays are projected for, by far, the most runs on the slate. Edinson Volquez is the very definition of average pitcher, striking out less than seven batters per nine, walking more than three and putting up an xFIP in the low 4's. Vegas likes the Jays' for runs and so does our system. Like I said before, the hardest part for me on FanDuel will be deciding which four to go with. Bautista's a near must for me. Revere isn't too far behind for cash games. His lack of power limits the upside which is why I'd probably run Colabello a bit more in tournaments.

Dexter Fowler - FD 2800 DK 4000
Opponent- NYM (Matz) L Park- @Chc
Jorge Soler - FD 2800 DK 3600
Opponent- NYM (Matz) L Park- @Chc
I don't mind these two guys from the other game if you want to get a little away from the AL. Fowler is better for his career against lefties while Soler is more platoon neutral. Against the lefty I expect them to be 1-2 in the order and though Matz is a live arm, I think these two are coming at price points low enough to consider.

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