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Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 2/11/16
Another Thursday, another short slate. I personally like them, but the margin for error can be thin. Other players will see some of the obvious values, so cashing can depend on just a few decisions. Tonight that’s amplified with just two games. The good news is that they both should be good from a fantasy perspective. The Wizards/Bucks game has a decent Over/Under and the line is virtually even. The NOP/OKC matchup has some blowout risk, but a huge O/U. Let’s get to identifying the values and the upside plays that could make for a successful night.
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A quick heads up - we post an updates article every day in the early afternoon, EST, to catch everyone up on how things are changing as a result of whatever news has come through. We also have great talks in the comments of that article. Hope to see you there!
POINT GUARD
Russell Westbrook - FD 11000 DK 11200
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 49.7 DK Proj. Pts - 51.54
Personally, I have a hard time not playing Russ every time he’s on the court. Finding a high-end option that consistently hits value is not easy. In his last 10 games, he’s failed to hit at least 4x exactly once, with outputs between 5x and 6x most nights. He’s even relatively immune to minutes risk. At this level of investment, that’s huge. The system projections seem depressed by blowout risk, and I think there’s upside here. No reason not to go back to the well.
Norris Cole - FD 5100 DK 5400
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 24.14 DK Proj. Pts - 25.41
Jrue Holiday - FD 7400 DK 6800
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 33.09 DK Proj. Pts - 34.61
One place to begin saving a bit is right here. Tyreke Evans is now done for the foreseeable future, so Cole should be locked into starters’ minutes. Add in a fast Pace, plus the fact that OKC is merely average defending the PG position, and Cole looks like a safe play with definite upside. I’ll roll him out across the board on both FD and DK. Note: These picks were written during Pelicans' game in which Cole was buzzed off minutes. We've upgraded Jrue Holiday who starts looking better in system. Though the Pels are tough to trust when it comes to PG run.
For variation, particularly in tourney plays, Michael Carter-Williams (or even Jerryd Bayless if you want to punt and are willing to go to the bench) could be set to go off – The Wiz are 29th against PGs.
SHOOTING GUARD
Khris Middleton - FD 7300 DK 6900
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 31.82 DK Proj. Pts - 33.93
Did I mention the Washington defense? Not very good against wings either. On a night with limited options, Middleton offers a decent floor and quite a bit of upside. He’s the highest price point at the position, but this is a good place to invest.
Dion Waiters - FD 4200 DK 4600
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 19.21 DK Proj. Pts - 20.69
In contrast to Middleton, Dion presents a great bargain opportunity. As the seemingly entrenched starter, he’s had a pretty solid floor near 4x, and his output regularly spikes. The prospect of the Pels 29th-rated D against the SG position isn’t particularly troubling either. I’ll have him across the board, cash and tourney.
While neither particularly cheap nor safe, Bradley Beal is an alternative to consider for tourneys.
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SMALL FORWARD
Kevin Durant - FD 10700 DK 10400
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 43.28 DK Proj. Pts - 45.8
Much like his running mate, Durant generally represents a good place to park large sums of salary. The key to big investments is a high floor, and he epitomizes that. Even as his cost has crept back up ($1200 higher than 3 weeks ago on DK), he’s been absolutely going off. The potential for serious upside is there. I think this is another opportunity of the DFSR system keeping projections down due to blowout risk – if the Pels somehow keep it reasonably close, these projections would be quite conservative.
Giannis Antetokounmpo - FD 7300 DK 7100
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 31.23 DK Proj. Pts - 32.31
The Greek Freak is priced at a high-but-not-outrageous point. I don’t see an explosion in the making, but there’s a decent floor and some upside. A relatively safe play on a night with limited options, if you want to spend a little less or are nervous about a Durant/Westbrook stack (something to consider for tourney entries), this is a good place to go.
Otto Porter - FD 5300 DK 5500
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 22.72 DK Proj. Pts - 23.59
If you’re looking to spend a little less so you can do so elsewhere, Porter is a third, economically sensible option at SF. There’s nothing sexy here – he’s priced about where he should be. We aren’t expecting a 7x outburst like he had against Charlotte over the weekend. He’s also unlikely to sink your night, in part because Washington is terrible defending the 3-spot. If you need to make the numbers work to fill out your roster, keep him in mind.
POWER FORWARD
Anthony Davis - FD 10200 DK 9700
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 49.81 DK Proj. Pts - 50.56
The Glass Brow makes an appearance. In case you’re worried, there’s no indication that his bad night against the Jazz is due to injury. He just seems to have picked up some fouls, and had to contend with the Favors/Gobert tandem on the interior. OKC is pretty good in their own right defending bigs, but, as noted above, some fast action is expected in this game. That should lead to things we like – Pts, Reb, etc. The DFSR system is really high on AD tonight.
Jabari Parker - FD 4700 DK 5000
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 22.44 DK Proj. Pts - 23.28
Much like Davis, Parker is projected for a very good multiple. While Gortat, Nene & Co are very stingy inside, Jabari comes at a low enough price point that he can help you fit in the bigger ticket items while maintaining solid value.
A consideration for tourney play is Serge Ibaka. He has an o.k. matchup, but is uber-volatile.
CENTER
Marcin Gortat - FD 6900 DK 6700
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 31.92 DK Proj. Pts - 32.44
Marcin Gortat is the destination Center tonight. The Bucks are solid defending 5s, but Gortat is not very sensitive to matchups. He’s got an extremely strong floor, decent upside, and I think he’s underpriced a bit, especially on DK (where he actually ticked down after a not-terrible 4.5x outing). You need a Center, he’s a good option among few, and I’ll be running him across the board. So should you.
Steven Adams - FD 4300 DK 4300
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 22.05 DK Proj. Pts - 22.45
Purely because there are so many high-cost options elsewhere, I thought you should see that the system really likes Adams tonight. He’s projected for a very high multiple and comes dirt-cheap. Consider this a lineup-building option if you want to punt here.
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- Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook: (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
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I notice that neither, Bryce DeSean-Jones nor Dante Cunnigham were listed? I just think on a slate this small, guys like that have to be considered. Also, can someone help me understand how Jrue holiday doesn’t get any consideration? I know he comes off the bench but his numbers lately have been eye-popping! Any comments would be appreciated…I like this site and use it often but I just gotta get a few other perspectives on it. Thx
Bryce 10 contract has expired and he wants a season deal. He is unlikely to play tonight. Cunningham has a horrible match up. On this short slate he could very well be a pung play. Jrue I’d playing great his minutes in a potential blowout makes him a risky play.
Hey Cameron. Thanks for checking in. Couple of answers to your questions. BJD and Cunningham aren’t really in consideration because BJD simply doesn’t see enough minutes (hasn’t topped 20 in last three games) and Cunningham doesn’t do enough on the court when he does see the minutes.
Holiday probably deserved a mention, though my issue there is that the minutes (and this actually applies to Cole as well) are so freaking variable. We wrote up picks during games last night and Cole was buzzed off minutes. So he’s getting a downgrade. With Holiday, you are trusting he does a ton in <30 minutes. That's what our system sees. He's a tournament play for sure, but hard to trust that situation.
You wouldn’t say wall is a better play than Westbrook in case of a blowout?
Nick;
In addition to my man-crush on Russ, Wall is more volatile generally. I can’t stress enough how important a high floor is for high-priced players. Even a 3x can sink you when it’s up to 10% of your total salary.
That said, Wall certainly qualifies as a contrarian/tourney option.
While I can’t speak for Doug or James (the proprietors, and the other guys who write up these daily pcks) , when writing up picks, I’m generally thinking of cash games, and try to clarify when a pick or some of the analysis of a pick is aimed more towards tourneys.
Also, if you’re a subscriber, you get to peek “behind the curtainn” to some extent. That provides more context when trying to analyze why we might prefer one player over another (or what the system generating the numbers informing these picks thinks of every player on a given night’s slate).
If someone can help me understand the system because all the information I’m getting when I’m logged in is the same that’s already posted for free ,please help?
Jose: You should see the info for all players, not just the ones in the write up. That said, this is probably the absolute worst night ever to see value in having access to all of the projections due to there being only two games. I assure you, when you’re trying to sift through dozens of options, having specific output projections for every player is huge.
Separately, please believe that having access to the Llineup Builder is huge. You can (almost) never simply take the recommendeations we make in these articles and construct an actual playable lineup with these alone (nor are they intended to, though there’s no intention not to either). Even tonight with just two games, I couldn’t directly constructi a lineup from the article (I actually tried?).
Additionally, DFSR will be rolling out a big platform update after the ASB, part of which has a lot to do with this very topic. That’s just a couple of days. If you happened to pick one of these last few days for a free trial, post back and I’ll have someone contact you, and I’m sure that can be addressed.
Hope that addresses your concerns.
Appreciate the quick response Ben and think I will be trying out the trial after the allstar break 😉
You’re welcome, though I can’t promise that every time.?
Se my post in response to another comment – I think you’ll find your timing to be optimal.
Jones out for the pelicans
Hey everyone. Sorry, no updates article today. But can throw questions into these comments and I’ll jump in throughout afternoon/evening.
No BDJ tonight. Cole, Holiday and Douglas are all in play.
You think Ryan Anderson will see extra time due to this as well?
I’m not convinced he does. He’s a tournament play.
Nick,
Ryno’s minutes strictly hinge on Anthony Davis and how they play Asik. Ryno doesn’t play the 3 at all but NO has shown willingness to play him a little at the 5, although mostly at the 4 position. He is solid for 24+ minutes but is largely scoring dependent. IMO he’s a good tourney pivot but not cash game safe.
TheWalrus82
Im gonna be the only one stashing Payne in this blowout
I bet I’ll be only one stashing Payne in this blowout
For a two game slate pretty crazy how many ways you can go with the lineup. Typically get a bunch of chalk plays but that’s not the case tonight imo because the punt plays are total guesswork. Guessing most people will take (2) of the big four and work from there.
Agree. It’s tempting to take the big three guys and punt a couple of spots. I think that’s very close to being correct. But the NO PG position is really the decider tonight.
I entered one in a tourney just to see how it did (very low stakes). Had to go Toney and Cunningham to get it done. We’ll see…
For anyone interested, it didn’t go so well. Not surprised, just disappointed. It may very well be that I simply punted wrong – easy to do, and an example of why GPPs aren’t easy to win, even with rock-solid analytics (like you’ll find here at DFSR:).
Better punt- Payne or Douglas?
Still hoping we get some late news that clears up a punt play or two. Seems like the “safe” play is to grab 2 big guys and then take 7 consistent guys but I’d bet the winner of the GPP stuff will have (3) bigs and hit every punt. Still got to get the right big (3) and the right punt plays but someone will hit paydirt..
A DK $75k, 3-entry-max GPP with roughly 29k entries was taken down by an entry with a 6.20 multiple and exactly ZERO members we’ve been referring to as “the big 3.”
An FD single-entry $25k GPP with roughly 29k entries was taken down by 113 people (no, seriously) with a lineup with a 5.58 multiple including only Westbrook.
Go figure. That’s why we love (and sometimes get extremely frustrated by – “hate” is I think too strong a word) DFS!
Doug or James, can you guys describe the System Optimal Lineup tool that you teased on Twitter and do you have an idea of when it will be rolling out? Thanks!