Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks for DraftStreet and FanDuel 1/7/14
Jam packed night in the NBA with twelve games on the schedule. That means you need to get your mind right. And get it right early. No time to waste. Let’s get to it.
Quick reminder about these picks. At DFSR we employ a system that seeks to gain the most points-per-dollar. When we give a recommendation, it’s because we believe that player has the best chance to meet or exceed his price. On any given the night the highest dollar player can be expected to score the most points, but that doesn’t always make him the best play for the money. Just something to keep in mind. On to the picks.
There is tons of great value at point guard today. I wouldn’t advocate paying top dollar at this position today as I think there are oodles of guys in the mid-to-upper tier range who’ll provide more for the dollar.
Michael Carter-Williams DS $15685 FD $8200 - Here’s your top point guard play on both sites, and for us, it’s not that close. The Cavs are always a dream matchup for opposing point guards, and now they’re a little banged up. Love Carter-Williams here. And because they got boat raced by the T-Wolves last night, he should be well rested.
Damian Lillard DS 14807 FD 7900 - For me, Lillard is strictly a GPP play. He’s awesome, don’t get me wrong, but he’s just way too inconsistent to run out there in double ups. That being said, when he catches fire, the sky’s the limit. He can win you a tournament and this price range is exactly what I’m looking for. Sacramento really struggles with scoring point guards. Bingo.
Nate Robinson DS 6604 FD 4200 - If Andre Miller sits again for “personal” reasons then Nate becomes a fantastic play at these prices. Honestly, if you could confirm he was going to get 20+ minutes then he starts entering “must start” territory on DraftStreet. I don’t typically run out bench guys on FD because there are almost always punting options in starting roles, but Robinson gets hot and he pays off both sites.
Additionally keep tabs on the health of the Cleveland backcourt as they face the Sixers. Kyrie Irving DS $16977 FD $8600 or Jarrett Jack $10692 FD $4700 would be insta-starts for me, but coming off injuries always gets a little downgrade until I can see they are 100%. (Update: Kyrie is starting tonight. Like his price, but coming off injury there's always some risk)
Draft Street Value
Kendall Marshall DS 12351 - DraftStreet typically adjusts their prices much quicker than FanDuel, but Marshall and the HOF resume he’s put together in two short games is one situation in which DS might have undercorrected. Considering what he’s done so far, this salary is awesome against a worse than league average point guard defense in Dallas.
John Wall FD $8700 - Very nice price for an elite point guard.
Monta Ellis DS 14526 FD 7400 - Got to love Monta in this spot tonight. The game should be fast-paced with defense far from a priority. The Lakers get crushed by opposing shooting guards. Especially high-scoring ones. This is a perfect storm for Ellis, and he will be in all of my lineups.
Lance Stephenson DS 12251 SG 6200 - If you’re like me, you never pick the right night with Lance. His scoring has dipped over the last few games as he’s been shooting less. But he can still fill the stat sheet, and we’ve seen him gun for triple doubles. I think Toronto will really struggle with Stephenson’s complete game.
Just as I said for the Cleveland point guards, the same applies for their shooting guards. Both Cleveland Dion Waiters DS 8568 FD 5200 and CJ Miles DS 9142 FD 4200 should get heavy consideration, with even bigger bumps if either Jack or Irving (or both) sit again.
Gerald Green FD 5100 - He’s starting for Bledsoe and the price hasn’t caught up yet.
Wesley Matthews FD 6400 - Nice price, though I like the above-mentioned options better.
Paul George DS 16076 FD 8700 - I think there’s a few ways to put lineups together tonight that have you slotting in guys in the mid 5k to mid 8k range with a healthy amount of upside. George its perfectly into that strategy. He’s less than the Big boys like Durant (also a good value on FD, but blowout risk is high) and Lebron (a moderate stay away for me), but has significant upside against the Raptors tonight. I often get worried about blowout risk with the Pacers but not tonight.
Trevor Ariza DS 12473 FD 5900 - This pick could come back to bite me as Ariza has been awful his last couple of games. But I think he could make for an upside/ contrarian play in GPPs that could push you toward the top of the pack. His main issue the last two games was volume. The Wiz got blown out both games, Ariza’s minutes weren’t there and neither were the shots. I like the bounceback here.
Jeff Green DS 9737 FD 5600 - Oof, talk about a risk. Green is the definition of feast (not often) or famine (more than you’d like). He’s a frustrating player. We use a picks system algorithm here at DFSR and the system likes Green tonight.
Mike Dunleavy DS 9193 FD 5200 - This is assuming he takes over the starting job for Deng after the trade. This boost in minutes alone should be well enough to pay this price.
Josh Smith DS 12987 - His price here fluctuates because, well, J-Smoove isn’t the most consistent dude in the whole world. I like to scoop him when his price dips. Grab him and start him.
Shawn Marion 5300 - Another day, another mention of the Matrix on FanDuel
Dirk Nowitzki DS 15626 FD 7500 - Ooh baby do I love Dirk tonight. He should eat the Lakers up as they are just a trainwreck in defending the power forward position. Dirk’s salary is nice on DrafStreet and almost a lock on FanDuel.
Brandon Bass DS 9103 FD 5000 / Jared Sullinger DS 9875 FD 6000 - Denver stinks on the interior, and that’s basically all you need to know about recommending these guys. The problem comes in who exactly to start. It depends on format. Bass has a higher ceiling, and much lower basement, making him a GPP play. Sullinger is much more consistent making him a double up move.
Tristan Thompson DS 10847 FD 5900 - Always a good rule to start opponents of Philly and Tristan works well with that game plan. He could easily go double/double against the Sixers.
Draft Street Value
Carmelo Anthony 18864 - I really like his price here tonight. He’s just out of that top tier of high dollar guys, but has a great chance to pay it off.
Anthony Davis 8700 - Oh man. Talk me out of starting him. Just try it.
Miles Plumlee 5300 - Like Marion, another night, another mention of Miles
Some issues at center tonight. I like Marcin Gortat’s price, but his minutes haven’t been consistent lately. Andrew Bogut is also a nice dollar but he might not see the fourth quarter against the Bucks. Basically, this position has so many question many question marks. One cheap option is:
Robert Sacre DS 8159 FD 3800 - If he sticks as the starter for the Lakers, this is a great price on both sites. Against Dallas, he basically just needs to get onto the court for 25+ minutes to pay it off. That’s never a guarantee with Mike D’Antoni, but if you get word he’s starting run him out there.
Demarcus Cousins 9800 - Boogie’s completely reasonable on FD tonight and if you don’t punt with Sacre, I think he represents a guy you should give heavy consideration. Portland is worse than league average against centers, especially ones who score. Enter Boogie. Could be in for a big night.