Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks for DraftStreet and FanDuel 1/11/14
Are you catching your breath from Friday night's games? From a daily fantasy standpoint it was a crazy run. Brandon Jennings no-shows the first half. Tyreke Evans puts up a negative. The Sixers get Smooved. Blake and company did their best And1 Tour impersonation against the Lakers. And Joe Johnson has a first quarter to remember. What a night and many of our daily NBA picks paid off in a big way. Take a look back. But, now we reset and move into a new group of games, with a whole new set of considerations. Prepare yourself to see a lot of Knicks. Here we go.
Quick reminder about these picks. At DFSR we employ a system that seeks to gain the most points-per-dollar. When we give a recommendation, it’s because we believe that player has the best chance to meet or exceed his price. On any given the night the highest dollar player can be expected to score the most points, but that doesn’t always make him the best play for the money. Just something to keep in mind. On to the picks.
Point guard is a bit of a minefield tonight, especially on DraftStreet. These two PGs I have grouped right together on DraftStreet as just about equal value. Felton as a slightly better value per dollar on FanDuel but it's close.
Raymond Felton DS $11390 DS $5600 - First let me say, that while these prices are good, Felton is a much better deal on FanDuel. Felton is not great at real basketball. But he gets to play Philadelphia and that's always good for a few extra points because of the additional possessions alone.
Michael Carter-Williams DS $16292 FD $8300 - Is there an MCW fan club? Is it easy to join? Because I'm all in. I love players like MCW in daily fantasy formats because of his high ceiling with a controlled basement because of his multiple category production. Basically he will get his combination of assists and rebounds every night. So when the points come in, he helps win you league.
PG - DraftStreet Value
Jose Calderon DS $10588 - Calderon isn't flashy, and is really only a cash game consideration, but in that format he can pay off. He gets the Pelicans on a back-to-back and he handled them last night easily.
PG - FanDuel Value
Shaun Livingston FD $4400 - He looked silky smooth against the Heat last night and the price is great. What scares me a little about Livingston today is that he played a ton of minutes last night (over 50). That, coupled with Toronto's defensive proficiency against the PG position, is the only thing holding me back from giving him the "must play" tag. Still a great price.
Goran Dragic FD $7700 - His production has ticked up with Bledsoe out and that should continue. Dragic, when he get its going can put up 5x lines at this price and is a favorite to do so against a Brandon Jennings. Dragic will be in lineups for me tonight.
Brandon Jennings FD $7400 - Speaking of Jennings, wow what a game last night. And I don't say that in awe. He had a first half line of 1/0/1/1(to) that had us more than a little worried before he crushed the second half. Look for him to get his tonight.
Again, a lot of decent, cheaper ways to go at SG tonight which is good because you'll need the money other places.
Joe Johnson $9896 FD $5400 - Were you watching Johnson last night? Did you see his 22 point first quarter? He looked like he wouldn't miss for the rest of his life. It was a spectacle. He cooled off (didn't expect him to score 88) but Johnson has been dialing it up of late after a rough stretch of games. Toronto plays a slow pace, which should limit his touches, but they also don't defend SG particularly well.
Austin Rivers DS $6000 FD $3500 -This is a bit of speculation, but with Tyreke Evans getting hurt last night, Rivers picked up a lot of those minutes. At these prices (especially on DS) he makes a nice punting option.
Randy Foye DS $10593 FD $5200 - He's fully back in the starting lineup and taking advantage. The Magic don't defend SG well and Foye could pay off nicely here.
(*Addition) James Anderson DS $8344 FD $4200 - Started last night and had a decent line at bargain prices. Especially appealing on DS
Monta Ellis DS $14420 FD $7500 - He had a great game against the Pelicans last night and he gets them again tonight. He's a safe, cash game play with his production.
Demar Derozan DS $14690 FD $7900 - Honestly, this is a little rich for my blood but our system likes him tonight. I don't think the upside is there, and he won't win you any tournaments, but in a cash game he's been offering high-level, consistent production of late.
SG - FanDuel Value
Brian Roberts DS $4200 - Last night Roberts got into foul trouble early which hurt his line. He's still the PG for the Pelicans, and I like him tonight for the chance to pay of about 6x on this price.
Iman Shumpert DS $4500 - Production up and he gets Philly, so you know the bottom line there.
Oh boy. What to do at this position tonight? Couple ways to go, and none of them are particularly exciting. If you can punt here, do it. Each of these picks comes with an asterisk.
Evan Turner DS $14846 FD $7000 - Turner is a tournament/GPP play because he is just so up and down with his lines. I am very hesitant about playing him in every format, but he gets a nice matchup against the Knicks. His asterisk is his inconsistency.
Trevor Ariza DS $11375 FD $5800 - Like Turner, I just can't justify taking him in any situation in which I'm looking for safety. Houston is about league average against SFs and they've been employing a committee for the position with Parsons out.
SF - DraftStreet Value
PJ Tucker $8404 - He's not a bad value on FD either against Detroit. I like him as a stop gap on DraftStreet if I'm trying to make money work/ get some of the bigger PFs into my lineup.
SF - FanDuel Value
Kevin Durant $11900 - His asterisk is that OKC is favored by more than 13 in this game and KD might not see the fourth quarter against the Bucks. But in the meantime, he could put up a monster against a mess of a team. I'll have him in tournament lineups with the chance he goes 5-6x on this salary.
Dirk Nowitzki DS $15187 FD $7400 - Dirk was a DFSR top pick last night and if you took our advice, you were on your way to cashing. He was a low percentage start who went 24/5/4/3/2. Nothing changes tonight as he gets the depleted Pelicans again. I love the prices, especially on FD.
Carmelo Anthony DS $19083 FD $9800 - A top value on both sites tonight with the matchup versus Philly. Melo has a limited ceiling, which concerns me a bit because it'll be tough for him to win you a tournament, but he should see a big line tonight.
Anthony Davis DS $18479 FD $9000 - Davis is the opposite of Melo in that his ceiling is much higher, but his basement is much lower. I like Davis in GPPs whereas Melo is more a cash game play. They are priced similarly which makes for more fluid roster construction if you're playing in different formats with similar players.
Kenyon Martin DS $7851 FD $3900 and/or Amar'e Stoudemire DS $7745 FD $4600 - Tyson Chandler is out again, which means both of these guys will see increased minutes. While not particularly good at real basketball anymore, both can provide significant value at these prices. I like getting either or maybe even both into some lineups.
Glen Davis DS $11402 FD $6000 or Tobias Harris $10905 FD $5500- I group these guys together because our system does. And they are on the same team. And they have the same considerations. And they are just kind of the same. With Vucevic out they've taken on more of the offensive load.
PF - Draft Street Value
Josh McRoberts $8451 - Remember when McBob was a 11-12k guy? Seems like forever ago because his production has diminished significantly. One reason I like him in this spot on DS is because the price has dipped below the middle tier and he does enough across the box score, that if he gets an uptick in say, scoring, his value skyrockets. We will soon release a piece about this concept, how to identify stat lines that are ripe for tournament plays. McBob fits the definition to a certain degree.
PF - FanDuel Value
Miles Plumlee 5300 - Copy and pasted, again and again and again. He's paid this salary 5x his last three games.
Couple of different considerations tonight based on the site.
Andrea Bargnani DS $10883 FD $5100 - Tyson Chandler has already been ruled out tonight. Bargnani gets a huge bump in this case. He also gets the Philly bump, making him a top play tonight. It should be fun watching him and Hawes chase each other around the court. Actually maybe fun isn't the word. Silly?
JJ Hickson DS $11630 FD $5800 - With Vucevic out, Orlando has literally no interior defense. It's a crime. Cousins tore them apart last night. And while JJ is no Boogie, he should see increased opportunity in the paint.
Marcin Gortat DS $12021 FD $6600 - Gortat isn't someone I'd run out in cash games, but he can post huge lines. Houston, despite Dwight's presence isn't great against centers, but they aren't terrible either. Opposing centers can rebound against the Rockets, so look for a few extra boards for Marcin tonight.
C - DraftStreet Value
Al Jefferson DS $15120 - Jefferson has been awful of late and his price on DS has dropped significantly. This is strictly a money thing as Chicago is good against opposing centers. But sometimes the price dips to meet the expectation. I like Jefferson as a contrarian play.
C - FanDuel Value
Andre Drummond $7500 He's the top center on FD tonight by a decent margin. Phoenix gets crushed in the rebounding department by opposing centers. Drummond could swipe 15+ boards tonight and I wouldn't be shocked at all.