Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks for Draftstreet and FanDuel 1/29/14

A full slate of games tonight with the big matchup on the docket being Lebron vs/ KD. I'm suggesting avoiding those guys in your lineups. Just watch them and enjoy. Find other options to round out your squads. It's a full slate of NBA games and there's plenty of value out there.

Take note: Apparently there is a Day After Tomorrow situation going on in Atlanta right now. Roads are gridlocked. Everyone's chilly and there stands a chance the Hawks/Pistons game gets cancelled. I think we would know about it well ahead of time, but keep an eye on the situation. If the game is postponed I would suggest taking all of the players from that game out of your lineups (shark tip). Update: This game has been cancelled!

Quick reminder about these picks. At DFSR we employ a system that seeks to gain the most points-per-dollar. When we give a recommendation, it’s because we believe that player has the best chance to meet or exceed his price. On any given the night the highest dollar player can be expected to score the most points, but that doesn’t always make him the best play for the money. Want an in-depth look at how we set our lineups each night? Sign up for our email list and get a free eBook on the 6 steps every pro takes before setting his lineup, either by clicking that link or signing up through the sidebar. On to the picks.

 

UPDATE! THE PISTONS AND HAWKS GAME HAS BEEN POSTPONED! IGNORE ALL PLAYERS FROM THOSE TEAMS!
 

Point Guard

Shelvin Mack - FD $4,300 DS $10,414-
Mack has filled in admirably for Teague, helping keep a depleted Hawks team in the game against the Thunder two nights ago. His price has still not completely caught up to his starter minutes, especially on FanDuel. Combine that with a matchup against Detroit and you've got a solid play for today. UPDATE: Jeff Teague has been upgraded to a game time decision - monitor this closely as the games approach. Game Postponed!

Brandon Knight FD $6,500 DS 12,543-
The Bucks suck bad. That is for sure. But Knight is one of the few guys who can actually put the ball in the basket. He's also one of the few guys who consistently gets thirty minutes a game under Larry Drew (no small feat). I like him against a Phoenix team that struggles with scoring and dishing point guards.

Brandon Jennings FD $7,600 DS 13,979-
Just keeps piling on the fantasy points. He's a frustrating guy for sure, but when the final whistle blows, and you look at the stat line he's paid the day. This is a strong play against Atlanta. Update: Game postponed!

Kyle Lowry FD $8,100 DS 15,959-
Really needs to shoulder the load while Derozan's been out. Lowry can pile it on with DeMar in or out of the lineup. I probably downgrade Lowry a bit if DeRozan is out just because the latter is such a high volume guy that he'll strip some of the former's value. But Lowry remains in play in either scenario.

Addition: Michael Carter-Williams FD $8,300 DS $14,901 - I think with some of the other value off the table, MCW makes a suitable option for the price.

Injury considerations
Jerryd Bayless FD $3,800 DS 6,110-
This is contingent on the Celtics holding Rondo out tonight. If Rajon sits and Bayless gets the start he is a must play across the industry.

Jeremy Lin FD $5,100 DS 8,140-
If Harden sits again slot Lin in.

Additionally: check on Ty Lawson's status before game time. He is questionable.

DraftStreet Value

Mike Conley DS 13,749-
Price has dipped just to the point that you can consider him. Sacramento has actually been holding PGs in check of late, but this pick is more about price than matchup.

Jose Calderon DS $8,870-
If you are looking to round out your lineup with a cheap option, Calderon provides some relative safety and a bit of upside at this price. He still plays thirty minutes a night for the Mavs.

 

 

Shooting Guard

Monta Ellis $7,200 DS $13,888-
Up until recently, Monta has had a surprisingly consistent season, getting into value range on a nightly basis. But a few of his recent performances have made me raise one of my untamed eyebrows. He's been a bit all over the map. That being said, I feel confident getting him in there against Houston where he'll most likely be guarded by either James Harden or Jeremy Lin. Houston has been about league average against SGs, but that's fine for Ellis's upside at this price.

Arron Afflalo FD $6,300 DS $12,612-
Oof, don't feel great about this one but the system likes him as a top shooting guard option for the night. Not a cash game play by any means, Afflalo tends to have peaks and valleys. But his peaks are more than enough to warrant a tournament play, especially against Toronto who is well below league average against shooting guards.

Gerald Henderson FD $5,700 DS $9,678-
An especially tempting price on DraftStreet, Henderson gets to face Denver who's like, "yikes" bad against shooting guards. Don't sweat his last two games against the Bulls and Knicks. I think Henderson turns it back around tonight.

Update: Terrence Ross FD $4,600 DS $8,383-
Derozan is a GTD but it's looking unlikely for him to play, making Ross still quality option.

DraftStreet Value

Eric Gordon - DS $9,071 -
We recommended him yesterday, he went off to the tune of a 20/7/9 line, and then the price dropped 10%. Minnesota is almost as bad as Cleveland defending the position. This is a great price for Gordon in a tournament, and is actually probably moderately safe for cash games as well.

 

 

Small Forwards

Shawn Marion - FD $5,100 DS $9,616-
The next time Shawn Marion plays that our system doesn't like his value will be the first. That being said, start him at your own peril. He just doesn't have enough to do with the offense, and has a tendency to just kind of disappear in games. This limits his safety, especially in cash games. He's shown the ability to crush these prices, but you can't count on him. That being said, Houston provides a good (not great) matchup and I'll be getting Marion into lineups.

Jeff Green - FD $5,900 DS $12,258-
His last four games have gone like this: Amazing, poor, trainwreck, okay. That isn't the kind of consistency I'm looking for necessarily. But then the Sixers come to town and all bets are off. The Celtics offensive options are so limited that this is the fewest "guys against Philly" picks you'll see. But Green is a dude who can fill it up quick in the right scenario. Like the price and positional consideration a ton more on FanDuel, but DraftStreet has its merits as well.

Al-Farouq Aminu FD $4,500 DS $9,153-
Just kind of *meh, but this is a very cheap for a guy who jogs around the court for about thirty minutes a game. Would consider slotting him into cash games if the money was tight because the nature of the matchup against Minnesota.

DraftStreet Value

Rudy Gay DS $13,557
I never like choosing guys on their way back from injury, but this price will be almost too good to pass up if Gay plays. He almost came back last game which makes me fairly confident he's on the right side of his Achilles problem. Gay can crush, crush, crush this price, especially if Boogie is out again. Stay tuned.

FanDuel Value

Demarre Carrol FD $5,300-
Ooh, I like this a great deal, a great deal I tell ya. Carroll will be finding his way into nearly all of my FD lineups unless a super punt comes along. And even then I'm not sure I'll do. He just pays this price every single night it seems. Oh and did I mention Detroit is abysmal against small forwards? Man I hope it doesn't get frozen out.

Update: Gerald Wallace FD $4,100 DS $8,607-
Still very cheap and getting starter minutes.

 

Power Forward

Kevin Love - FD $10,700 DS $21,179-
For me he's strictly a cash game play. Because while Love is obviously awesome, I'm not positive he has the percentage of upside I'd like to see if I'm trying to beat out a large pool of players. He is consistent though, matching this price more than enough to provide safety. He'll be matched up with Anthony Davis but I don't see that as an issue necessarily. Our system likes Love to pay his way in cash games. He will be a heavy start as I think Durant and Lebron get faded.

Dirk Nowitzki - FD $8,000 DS $15,080
Dirk on the other hand, does have the price-to-ceiling ratio that makes him an attractive GPP play (cash as well). Houston by and large, has struggled with opposing power forwards (though they've trended better recently) and Dirk's volume is enough to warrant heavy consideration. On a night where big money options are fairly limited, I think he makes a strong play.

Josh McRoberts - FD $5,300 DS $10,073-
Ah, the McBob and all his long-haired goodness. He is on here tonight because Denver has been off the charts bad at stopping opposing power forwards from scoring. Over the last fifteen days they are allowing 30% more points than league average against the position. Some of that is noise for sure, but they've been below average all year long. A great lower-middle tier option for today.

Miles Plumlee - FD $5,200 DS $9,107-
Kicked it back up a notch against Philly the other night (as players often do) and should be back on your radar. The Phoenix frontcourt is fraught with inconsistent peril, but it appears Plumlee is rather safe tonight against the Bucks who are 20% worse than league average in opposition scoring and rebounding (and bad in getting blocked as well). That lines up perfectly with Plumlee as long as he gets a full minutes run.

FanDuel Value

Anthony Davis FD $9,700-
Playing at another level right now and the price hasn't come close to catching up. Paid this 6x the last two nights. Honestly, our system doesn't love, love him tonight against Love (like that?) but it's difficult to leave him off considering what he's been up to.

Markieff Morris FD $5,400-
Been dominating.

Jason Thompson FD $4,500-
Thompson's been crushing this price for some time now, and while his matchup against Memphis is far from ideal, I think you can consider him. This is especially if Boogie is out as Thompson shoulders a bit more of the load.

Gustavo Ayon FD $3,800-
Still near a minimum price for a guy getting in the mid-twenties minutes run each night in a decimated Hawks frontcourt. He isn't a great real player, but this price is so attractive. And Detroit isn't world beaters on interior defense.

 

Center

Jonas Valanciunas FD $5,000 DS $10,956-
I really can't overstate just how bad Orlando's defense against centers has been since Vucevic went down. Consider these numbers over the last fifteen days. 28%, 13%, 62%, that is how much worse than league average they've been against scoring, rebounding and assisting from the opposing team's big man. Are you kidding me? Jonas has crushed the last two games with increased minutes. Some of that may be from Derozan sitting, so take that into account. But this matchup and price are still great deals.

Andre Drummond FD $7,700 DS $14,919-
Speaking of Orlando, my numbers to illustrate Jonas's upside tonight didn't even take into account Drummond's 13/17 performance last night. Tonight Andre get's a Horford-less Hawks team who are on Orlando's level in defending the other team's largest player.

Spencer Hawes FD $6,900 DS $13,812-
The Celtics employ a rather small lineup on the inside making a guy like Hawes an attractive play tonight. Boston is about 5-10% worse across the board against big men. And while Hawes doesn't necessarily play his size, he has some upside at these salaries.

FanDuel Value

Ronnie Turiaf FD $3,500-
With Pekovic out, Turiaf becomes a starter and makes for the ideal punt on FanDuel. If his minutes increase say, 2.5x with the loss of Nikola, you can almost bank this price on your way to the bank even in average matchup. New Orleans is worse than average. He will be a heavy start.