Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet and FanDuel 2/8/14
An interesting night in the NBA with some solid games on the docket along with some crap defenses which is just perfect for our daily fantasy purposes. For my money I'm paying bucks at point guard and center tonight. There is other value on the board, but those positions in particular have some great choices.
Quick reminder about these picks. At DFSR we employ a system that seeks to gain the most points-per-dollar. When we give a recommendation, it’s because we believe that player has the best chance to meet or exceed his price. On any given the night the highest dollar player can be expected to score the most points, but that doesn’t always make him the best play for the money. In addition to our ebook on setting NBA lineups, keep an eye out for upcoming premium offerings that will provide real time tools for setting optimal lineups each night.
Stephen Curry FD $9,700 DK $10,100 DS $18,780
Curry was what you would call "feeling it" it the other night against Chicago. It was the kind of game you turn on just because you see what is starting to happen in the box score. When Steph has it going it instantly becomes the best thing on TV (besides Top Chef reruns). Tonight he is reasonably priced (though it's getting steep on DK) against a Suns team that allows points in bunches to opposing point guards.
Ty Lawson FD $8,500 DK $7,700 DS $15,845
I point it out every time I recommend him, but it's worth mentioning again that Lawson is about as consistent as it gets at point guard. Though he's never too high, he's never too low either. Detroit gets torched by point guards in scoring and assisting which just happen to be the two areas Ty Lawson highlights on all his dating profiles (along with "likes to snuggle")
Ricky Rubio FD $6,500 DK $7,000 DS $12,451
Just seems like such a worse option than the two dudes listed above, but don't sleep on Rubio. He's been quietly paying this price for a few games now and now will get into a game with Portland that should be up and down the court. Don't expect many points (though for Rubio he was practically chucking last night with 9 whole shot attempts) but Ricky does everything else.
Nick Calathes FD $4,800 DK $4,800 DS $8,672
Still reasonably priced for a starter. Ignore the hair and focus on what matters, the eyes and cheekbones, err, I mean the stat line. He's playing big minutes in Conley's absence and been plugging away plenty to meet these salaries.
DraftStreet and FanDuel Value
CJ McCollum DS $2,086
Basically all he has to do is walk out on the court and have the ball bounce his way a couple of times to pay off this insane price. I know he's not a starter but he gets about ten minutes a night. A couple of buckets and an assist or something and you are on the right side of this price.
Kevin Martin FD $5,900 DK $6,200 DS $10,044
Oof, this is going to be a tough one to set "lock" on but our system really likes him tonight as the top midtier shooting guard. Part of his risk is built in to his price. He's has had some huge, huge games, but more often has laid eggs. Against Portland, Martin could see some extra stats in the transition game. This is a system pick plain and simple. I have a big mental hurdle to overcome getting Martin into lineups.
Wes Matthews FD $6,100 DK $5,800 DS $10,122
Matthews is right behind Martin in our DraftStreet system and a few more spots below that on Fand Duel and DraftKings. After Martin I'm probably either spending a little more for Harden or going with some of the cheaper options listed below. But I wanted to include Matthews because our system thought he looked solid.
James Harden FD $8,700 DK $15,050 DS $8,800
There isn't a spec of science to the this but, I just feel like Harden is due for a big game. I take that back, there is statistical evidence and it's wrapped in how epically shitty the Bucks have been against shooting guards. Recently they've been getting torched. Like 30% more scoring than league average kind of torched. This might be because Nate Wolters is an inferior defender. I'm not sure, I don't watch the Bucks too often because they blow. If this game stays close, Harden could put up a monster.
FanDuel and DraftKings Value
Danny Green FD $4,300 DK $4,500
Been crushing since returning from injury. There is no one threatening his playing time and his production means he should continue to see big minutes with the Spurs. Playing like the guy we saw in the finals last year and the prices haven't caught up.
Courtney Lee DK $4,100
Kind of a must start at this price.
As usual, plan on ripping your hair out trying to fill this position tonight.
Wilson Chandler FD $5,800 DK $5,800 DS $9,854
The best of the group, Chandler is solid though far from spectacular. He can score points in bunches or completely disappear from a game. Though our system likes him, it's that latter point that has me a little nervous about Chandler's prospects. That being said, our system sees him as the top starting SF on the board for the money.
Josh Smith FD $7,800 DK $7,800 DS $13,971
Put together two solid games in a row and gets a Denver defense that's about league average against small forwards. At this point, you know what you're getting in the from Smith. I mean this is in the macro sense, in that you know you are getting an inconsistent dude who can make you want to commit unspeakable acts. Or he can help win you a tournament.
James Johnson FD $4,800 DK $3,800 DS $8,819
Still not starting. Still making the most of his limited time on the court. It's amazing the kind of production he puts together in such small doses. He's particularly attractive on DK and DS,
Corey Brewer DS $7,352
In a fast-paced game, Brewer could see his share of leak-out fast break points. I like this price as fairly safe on DraftStreet today considering what kind of game we should be in for.
PJ Tucker DK $4,100
Really like this price on Tucker here tonight. I guess that's implied because I don't just put every single guy's name out that and then make you choose who I like. I've narrowed down the process and then repeated myself. Uh oh, I'm trapped in a circle. Eject! Play Tucker!
Power forward is a real weak group tonight. From a dollar/ expectation perspective, this group rates out the worst by far. I'd probably spend my money other places and then go a little cheaper/ midrange value here. But if you want to spend bucks...
LaMarcus Aldridge FD $10,400 DK $5,800 DS $19,290
...is your man. He's got a solid matchup verse Minnesota tonight. The T-Wolves are slightly worse than league average against opposing power forwards. I've heard Bill Simmons and Zach Lowe discussing Kevin Love's defense, saying he has a tendency to leak off his man early in order to grab rebounds. That could be a problem against Aldridge, allowing him plenty of midrange jumpers, which he takes a ton of. Could be a nice line for Lamarcus.
Greg Monroe FD $6,400 DK $7,300 DS $13,138
Another "meh" option, but you need to field someone at this position tonight. Our system likes him tonight because of the matchup against Denver who've been owned by opposing PF's this season. The Nuggets have been a bit better of late, but their personnel hasn't changed too much over the course of the season. Monroe seems safe-ish, but he's got a pretty hard ceiling.
Terrence Jones FD $7,000 DK $6,000 DS $13,998
Solid prices here on Jones. He's shown a knack for putting up some huge lines. He's got a great opportunity against Milwaukee. Last time they played Jones went for 36/11. The Bucks are slightly different team now than they were then (they are like a new team every night, not in a good way) but the matchup is still a prime one for Jones.
FanDuel and DraftKings Value
Zach Randolph FD $8,100 DK $8,000
Again he makes a great deal on these sites against he Hawks who've struggled with players of any legitimate size since Horford left the picture.
Chris Bosh FD $6,900 DK $6,600 DS $12,873
Bosh is our system's top center option tonight for a couple of reasons. One, he's been soid all year long, getting his numbers regardless of the Heat lineup on any given night. But he also gets a major bump because of the opponent. You could sit on my shoulders and we could probably defend centers better than Utah has of late. They are getting killed inside, to the tune of 20% ore scoring from opposing centers. Bosh isn't a traditional big, but he should be able to take advantage of the Jazz.
Al Jefferson FD $10,400 DK $5,800 DS $19,290
His last five games have been like this: beast, beast, King Kong beast, sucked, beast. That's the kind of beast:suck* ratio that I'm looking for. The Spurs don't have anyone who can legitimately handle Jefferson inside. Should be more beast than suck tonight.
FanDuel and DraftStreet Value
Dwight Howard FD $8,800 DS $17,899
Just like the other night, these prices are extremely tempting, FanDuel especially. Dwight can crush these salaries if he's hitting his free throws because he should no problem with just standard rebounding and scoring against the Bucks who get railroaded by opposing center.
FanDuel and DraftKings Value
Andre Drummond FD $8,100 DK $7,800
Another great option tonight. JJ Hickson is giving up some size to my boy 'Dre and Drummond is nearly a lock for double-double.