Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet and DraftKings 2/10/14
I'm writing this as I watch the Clippers-Sixers game and all I can say is, "My God." What just happened? This is like what would happen if I played against a sixth grader one on one. The Clips must just feel like they are the greatest group of basketball players ever assembled. How could they not? Rest assured, the Sixers are just that bad.
Quick reminder about these picks. At DFSR we employ a system that seeks to gain the most points-per-dollar. When we give a recommendation, it’s because we believe that player has the best chance to meet or exceed his price. On any given the night the highest dollar player can be expected to score the most points, but that doesn’t always make him the best play for the money. In addition to our ebook on setting NBA lineups, keep an eye out for upcoming premium offerings that will provide real time tools for setting optimal lineups each night.
Easy group here today. The values are in these three dudes (with one value at the end) and you need not look elsewhere.
Stephen Curry FD $9,900 DK $10,100 DS $20,999
Assuming the Sixers can keep the game close (the Warriors are not the Clips) Curry could be in for a monster. From a statistical perspective, the only issue I have here is if Curry doesn't see the fourth quarter. I like his price on FD best of all. On the other two site he gets a bit expensive and the upside is built in to the price a little. I think you will see plenty of people fade Steph tonight and the reasoning is somewhat sound. Those reasons are listed below. But know this, the Sixers play fast and loose (kind of like me) and that benefits Curry's game.
Kyle Lowry FD $8,200 DK $7,700 DS $15,582
Price is very much in the sweet spot here. Understand the Lowry isn't the most consistent guy in the whole world. With Derozan back in the lineup Lowry isn't needed for as much scoring. But he's still in the upper echelon of the position and has a decent matchup tonight with an average defensive Pelican team. This pick is based primarily on price. It's dipped across the board and you want to jump on it.
Brandon Jennings FD $8,500 DK $8,500 DS $15,889
Mo Cheeks got fired and Jennings (and presumably the rest of the Piston team) found out about it on Twitter. So yeah, the Pistons are a mess. But bad coach or not, Jennings put up a monster the other night. There was a stretch when it looked like he'd never miss from beyond the arc at any other point in his career. Of course this isn't true (he missed right after I thought that) but his matchup against a struggling defense in San Antonio is another chance to shine.
Some interesting options here tonight.
Lance Stephenson FD $7,500 DK $6,300 DS $13,401
Back after a game absence and barely missed a beat putting up a 16/9/3/2(steals) line. Stephenson's price tag is great everywhere but in must start range on DraftStreet and DraftKings. He just has too much upside at these prices.
James Harden FD $8,600 DK $8,800 DS $15,031
Our system keeps waiting for Harden to break a huge one. It might not happen as the Rockets may have just too many offensive weapons for James to truly reach peak value. I'm throwing him out there one more time until the price drops significantly (or unless he crushes).
Eric Gordon FD $5,800 DK $5,800 DS $10,525
If your'e going to play him you need to take the good with the bad. The good? His game against Minnesota. The bad? The gut punch he delivered last night. Let everyone else talk themselves out of Gordon based on yesterday. You? You're smarter and god damn better looking for sure. You'll play Gordon against a Raptor team about league average against shooting guards.
James Anderson FD $4,600 DK $4,300 DS $8,948
Anderson has been surprisingly consistent this year at bargain basement prices. His stock has climbed a bit of late on performance, but is still low enough to consider against the Warriors who've been getting torched, like bonfire style, by opposing shooting guards.
Danny Green FD $4,400 DK $4,500
Don't let his last game stinker stand in your way. These prices are still crazy low considering his playing time and opportunity in San Antonio.
Klay Thompson FD $5,900 DK $6,100
This is another one that's all about opponent. Our system gives a monster boost to Klay because Philly is bad against the board against everyone everywhere. He should get plenty of looks. He needs to knock them down (no guarantee).
Chase Budinger FD $3,700 DK $3,300 DS $8,338
Ooh baby, I love punting small forward and Budinger is just the guy. He pulled the most minutes from Martin's finger booboo and threw up a 19/5/1 line. If he is starting again, and he should be, this is a must play on every site.
Paul George FD $8,100 DK $8,600 DS $14,381
We liked him yesterday and he delivered with a 27/7/3 line that hopefully breaks him out of his slump. This was with Stephenson on the court which is encouraging.
Corey Brewer FD $4,900 DK $4,600 DS $8,316
Brewer should see increased opportunity after the DFS gods sent down the wrath of Kevin Martin's broken finger after lineup lock two nights ago. I mean a broken fucking finger doesn't get a mention in any injury reports all day? Anyway, Brewer's price is still low enough assuming he sees more looks. The minutes are already there.
Golden State dudes...
Draymond Green FD $3,500 DK $3,200 DS $8,101
Harrison Barnes FD $4,600 DK $4,600 DS $10,259
Andre Iguodala FD $5,100 DK $6,000 DS $11,654
All all in a weird category because we just don't know David Lee and Andrew Bogut's status for tonight. When the Warrior bigs have missed time, these guys have benefited in some way. If sitting again, consider all of them.
FanDuel and DraftKings Value
Josh Smith FD $8,400 DK $8,300
Posted a monster the other night and I could kiss the guy because we recommended him across the board. I think he kind of hated Mo Cheeks, so, motivation!
Khris Middleton FD $5,100 DK $4,600
I would say the Bucks are an embarrassment to the NBA but that would imply the NBA even pays attention to the Bucks. That being said, Middleton is getting huge minutes and that's pretty much all he needs to pay these prices.
Kevin Love FD $11,300 DK $10,600 DS $23,415
He sat last game, submarining some of mine and MisterMarch's lineups in the process. And while I'm worried about the injury piece, there's reason to like Love going into tonight's game. Without Martin and Pekovic, even more offensive responsibility (if that's even possible) falls on Love's shoulders. Even with DraftStreet's price through the roof and FD's not too far behind, our system still likes Love for value.
Boris Diaw FD $4,300 DK $3,500 DS $8,282
If Splitter isn't in the lineup again Diaw becomes very intriguing. He's shown the ability to destroy these salaries. He's also shown the ability to take a giant anchor and throw it through the bottom of your lineup, sinking it to the bottom of the standings. I like him for the former scenario against a Detroit team that struggles with interior players.
John Henson FD $5,700 DK $5,200 DS $11,658
Not too long ago Henson was a DFS darling, crushing it nightly. Some minutes issues and injuries have brought his prices down to Earth. But the opportunity is there again and Henson is back paying it off. I think he's actually a relatively safe play (as safe as Larry Drew can make a guy I guess) against the Celtics tonight.
FanDuel and DraftKings Value
Anthony Davis FD $9,800 DK $9,600
Underpriced here every single night.
Tim Duncan FD $8,600 DK $8,100
Timmaaay had me worried against Al Jeff the other night. But then he started started boarding and pulled himself out of a turnover tailspin. I expect a big game out of Duncan tonight against a below average Detroit interior defense.
David West FD $6,900 DK $6,900
Ugh. MisterMarch outlined yesterday our problem with this guy. System almost always likes him. We always pick the wrong night.
Jared Sullinger FD $6,500
Price has climbed out of range everywhere else but FanDuel. Continue to play him.
Oh man, what a minefield today. Very few quality options out there in terms of dollar expectation. If...
Andrew Bogut FD $6,900 DK $5,800 DS $17,144
Is available he becomes the top option going away. But he's sat the last few, making that a scary proposition.
You can also go...
Andre Drummond FD $8,500 DK $8,200 DS $18,469
but he's getting pricey and I don't think it's completely wise to spend your dollars on Andre considering his matchup and price tag. I'm putting him on here because he's our system's second best big money center.
Ronny Turiaf FD $4,300 DK $4,000 DS $8,475
He is probably the safest option and allows you to get better money in elsewhere.
Hey, like I said, center is a tricky walk today.