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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

03/16/2014
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftStreet 3/16/14

Another weekend coming to a close, but not before you have a chance to sit on your ass and watch a full NBA slate (plus NCAA conference championships in the off moments). Now that's a Sunday Funday.

Be sure to sign up for a free 3-day trial to access the NBA system and spreadsheets that help produce our picks. And give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr. Let's get to the picks.

 

Point Guards

I can make a case for about eight point guards on the board tonight depending on site and cost. This is a super tough position tonight (in a good way). And since I started writing this column, this is the most guys I've ever really considered. Tough to break it down really. Basically, there are four guys who are deals on all three sites. Then below I'll list some guys I'd consider on the individual sites. Consider everyone here to be tightly grouped. And it's not lost on me that I'm listing a ton of guys. Decisions are tough here today.

Isaiah Thomas - FanDuel $8,000 DraftKings $7,300 DraftStreet $14,093
I'm considering IT2 everywhere tonight because it's always a plus to target opposing point guards against the pace of Minnesota. They let up 10% more scoring and 5% more rebounding to opposing point guards. And really they are below average in just about every category. Thomas looks real good tonight.

Chris Paul - FanDuel $9,400 DraftKings $9,600 DraftStreet $18,286
I really like Paul for GPPs tonight, though he scares me a bit in cash games because the Clips may smoke the Cavs. Cleveland can't handle opposing point guards at all. Kyrie has other interests. Paul could be in line for a huge line, but be wary of the minutes if the game were to get out of hand.

Kyle Lowry - FanDuel $8,500 DraftKings $8,300 DraftStreet $16,390
Will be a fast-paced affair against the Suns and Lowry is capable of putting up monsters. He's far from the safest play on a night in, night out basis, but grabbing him in what should be high-scoring affairs provides a bit of a net.

Damian Lillard - FanDuel $7,300 DraftKings $8,000 DraftStreet $13,986
Though his first half was the thing of bad dreams last game, he picked it up in the second to prove that his production is significantly increased with Aldridge out of the lineup. Golden State isn't exactly the best matchup for opposing point guards but Lillard's price hasn't caught up to reflect the change in opportunity.

Site-specific considerations:

Stephen Curry - FanDuel $8,500

Russell Westbrook - FanDuel $8,900

Goran Dragic - DraftStreet $13,814

 

Shooting Guards

Kevin Martin - FanDuel $5,700 DraftKings $6,100 DraftStreet $10,485
Warning: I've never picked right on this guy. Never. Today will be the first, I can feel it. Martin has been putting up a ton of shots lately and gets to face a Sacramento team that gets straight up torched by opposing shooting guards. Of course consider this pick the kiss of death from Martin, but the numbers back it up.

Tyreke Evans - FanDuel $7,700 DraftKings $6,400 DraftStreet $15,616
Came off the bench in a late Pelicans' roster move last game that immediately gave everyone who rostered him a heart attack. He didn't let that slow him down though, going for 16/8/8. Even though the 'Cans can't figure out his role, you should put him in play tonight, especially on DraftKings.

Eric Bledsoe - FanDuel $7,200 DraftKings $7,000 DraftStreet $14,420
He's back. Any concerns that Bledsoe would take some time to adjust to getting back on the court are gone. He's reasserted himself as an across the stat-sheet threat. Toronto isn't the best matchup in the world, but Bledsoe's price hasn't quite caught up to what he's been doing.

Monta Ellis - FanDuel $7,400 DraftKings $7,800 DraftStreet $14,281
A very solid play against an OKC team that's piecemealing the old shooting guard thing.

 

Small Forwards

For FanDuel, this position kind of sucks tonight. For the other sites, you'll be using guys in a more flexible position setting (sounds sexy).

Nicolas Batum - FanDuel $7,200 DraftKings $7,300 DraftStreet $14,713
Like his price on the first two sites a bit more than DraftStreet, but Batum makes a nice play on a night where finding small forwards isn't the easiest thing in the world. Nic stands to see more looks with Aldridge out of the lineup and he posted a monster 22/18/5 the other night.

Rudy Gay - FanDuel $7,900 DraftKings $7,800 DraftStreet $14,903
Forgive Rudy for his low number last night. It was the Bulls and we all know the story there. Minnesota is across the board bad against small forwards and Gay has a great opportunity to take advantage of the increased opportunity with the Wolves pushing the pace.

Kawhi Leonard - FanDuel $6,400 DraftKings $6,200
He got a rest the other night when the Spurs put the Lakers out to pasture. Tonight the Spurs face a subpar Jazz squad, but I think Kawhi sees more minutes. This pick is a bit more about price than opponent, especially on a short night for the position.

Dorell Wright - FanDuel $3,600 DraftKings $3,000 DraftStreet $7,801
Not a bad low-cost option assuming he starts in place of Aldridge again.

 

Power Forwards

Power forward, like small forward is a bit of a minefield tonight. Again, on DraftKings and DraftStreet there is some more flexibility. But on FanDuel you'll have to choose between either some low-priced iffy guys or high price tags outside of the value zone.

David Lee - FanDuel $7,800 DraftKings $7,500 DraftStreet $14,494
Though our system doesn't love him, it's not completely accounting for Aldridge being out of the lineup. With him gone last game Anthony Davis had no peer. And though Lee is no Davis, he is still an offensive minded power forward who can get to the glass. He could be up for a strong line with the Blazers shorthanded.

Anthony Davis - FanDuel $10,100 DraftKings $10,500
Speaking of the big guy, have you been privy to his recent accomplishments? Because they've been something else. He's been positively untouchable. His price has climbed on DraftStreet to superstar level, and I just don't think he's quite safe enough. But on these sites he's most definitely in play. The Celtics are slightly below league average against power forwards, so it isn't a crazy great matchup, but Davis's recent output warrants the mention.

Kris Humphries - FanDuel $4,900 DraftKings $4,800
He's seeing just enough minutes to be relevant at these prices. Though Davis is a monster on the glass and as a scorer, he isn't a great one-on-one defender. Humphries could put up a fine line which is all you're looking for at these costs.

Amir Johnson - FanDuel $5,700 DraftKings $5,900
Still seeing big minutes with Patrick Patterson out of the equation. Plus this should be an up and down game against Phoenix leading to more Amir touches.

Ersan Ilyasova - FanDuel $5,900 DraftKings $5,100 DraftStreet $11,305
Stunk yesterday but they got blown out by the Knicks. Up until then he'd been crushing. I like him bouncing back against Charlotte tonight. Remember, PF sucks tonight.

Reggie Evans - FanDuel $3,500 DraftKings $3,200
Started against the Bulls, played 25 minutes and went 5/8/1. With the same kind of minutes he has a much higher upside against the Wolves.

 

Centers

Two clear choices and one other slightly cheaper dude.

Al Jefferson - FanDuel $9,700 DraftKings $9,000 DraftStreet $18,881
The only guy making the Dwight decision tough. It's a cost thing mostly. I have them as about even relative to price. If there enough cheaper options on the board, I'm going Al Jeff against the Bucks who couldn't guard that random 6'11 kid who went to my college and couldn't even walk totally normally.

Dwight Howard - FanDuel $8,600 DraftKings $8,900 DraftStreet $17,420
Howard has been dog-shitty lately and it doesn't feel great putting him in the top spot. But he's been up against a few stout defenses and getting his shot a bit less. Tonight he plays a Miami team that allowed a 22/16 to Howard only a few weeks ago. The Heat get crushed by opposing centers, especially in scoring and on the glass. Dwight puts up a 20/10 at least with room for much more.

Spencer Hawes - FanDuel $6,700 DraftKings $7,400 DraftStreet $14,157
If you're looking for a contrarian play because of the rebel inside you. Hawes has been playing well, has decent upside and faces the Clips who allow 14% more scoring than league average to opposing centers.

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