Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, and Draftstreet 4/2/14
Like real life players, we need to be resilient during slumps. If you took CC yesterday on our recommendation - that's my bad. Making it up to you today with some picks to live by!
A little note about baseball picks
If you're coming over from basketball - welcome. If you're a lifelong fantasy baseball player, welcome. I want to give a quick heads up about how we are going to do our baseball picks.
Unlike basketball, contextual information matters very little baseball. Guys rarely take days off, and "playing well recently" means almost nothing. Playing time hardly ever changes (unlike in basketball where guys can increase their opportunities by 50% on a coach's whim), and when it does, it's fairly obvious.
So, we're going to be giving picks each day without huge write-ups. The only thing that changes about a player in a given day (for the most part) is the park he's playing in and the pitcher he is facing. Most of the other stuff is noise, unless a player has drastically changed his position in the lineup. For pitchers, all that really matters is who they are facing, which park, and if they've been recently injured.
Let's do it.
PSA: The picks do not include the early games. Our system is having a hell of a time with how the different sites integrate with early games, late games, rain outs, etc, and we're working on the back end trying to get things settled. Sorry!
Charlie Morton FanDuel 4700 DraftKings 6400 DraftStreet 12902
Morton is one of those guys who doesn't have the stuff to blow you away, but could easily best a lousy Cubs team. Pitchers with low $ totals benefit from Wins more than pitchers with high $ totals (since efficiency is calculated by ratios) - and Morton doesn't need to do much to produce 2x on this number.
Gio Gonzalez FanDuel 8000 DraftKings 9800 DraftStreet 19207
Gio is the best high $ pitcher on the board today. A lefty facing the Mets who has strike-out stuff? A 18+ FPs performance is totally in play.
Dan Haren FanDuel 6500 DraftKings 8800 DraftStreet 15749
Haren gets special consideration today, because he's playing in the 1 ball park that should address his major weakness: homers. Haren was quietly great at everything except giving up homers last year, and the Padres don't pose a huge threat. Definitely a risky move, but it could pay off big time.
Chris Iannetta FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 3737
Or if Conger gets the start, you can play him, too. Iannetta is a lefty crusher, and the young Paxton will have to do a lot to get around Iannetta's patient eye and home-run swing.
Dioner Navarro FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 2500 DraftStreet 5506
It's a pretty lousy day for Catchers, which means Navarro moves toward the top by default. This is largely a lefty/righty thing, as Navarro is excellent against lefties, and pretty bad against righties.
Anthony Rizzo FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6891
Rizzo could definitely go famine on your here, but a feast is totally in play as well. Don't be fooled by his looking lost vs. Liriano - Rizzo can hit righties, and should do so tonight.
Justin Morneau FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 7548
DFSR pick Morneau teed off on Eovaldi, even if the rest of his comrades didn't. Alvarez is another step down from Eovaldi - look for Morneau to have a nice game.
Kolten Wong FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5697
Wong is still priced like a scrub, but could play like a star. Believe the hype - Wong is the real deal, and batting in the top of the order with the studly St. Louis hitting corp gives him tons of opportunity.
Neil Walker FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5960
Walker produced and then some in his first game, and I don't think that will change this time out. The price is just left over from last year's performance, and Walker's price will almost certainly climb as he performs the way he can.
Chase Utley FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6910
This is why it's so important not to assume that lefty's will do poorly against lefties. Utley is worse against lefties, but only marginally so, and the inexperience of Ross and the wonderful Texas ballpark (especially while the rest of the country is playing in 40 degree weather) gives Utley a very healthy boost.
Elvis Andrus FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 7227
Andrus draws Kyle Kendrick, and he is pretty much the same against lefties and righties. On a day where it's tough to spend money at short, Andrus is the safest option.
Dee Gordon FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 5451
Gordon has looked a lot crisper this year, and is a very nice fit for playing in Petco. The speed plays there - and he is capable of a big game at this price if he can just get on base.
Jhonny Peralta FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 4746
Peralta fares better against lefties, and Cingrani's magic largely comes against lefties as well. A pretty decent matchup, though I prefer the guys above more.
Evan Longoria FanDuel 4200 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 8001
Oh, how I LOVE Longoria against Mark Buehrle. Beuhrle couldn't scare me any less, and Longoria has had an OPS that's 90 pts higher against lefties than righties for his career.
Pedro Alvarez FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6203
It always feels weird to recommend hitters facing the pitchers I've recommended, but this will happen with Alvarez from time to time. Jackson hasn't struck out nearly as many guys recently, and that's really Alvarez's major Achilles heel.
Shin-Soo Choo FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 8898
Choo is such a cool player, and is even cooler against righties. Kyle Kendrick doesn't stand a chance in this match-up, and the game being player in Texas doesn't hurt either.
Desmond Jennings FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6408
Jennings is another guy who platoon splits really matter for - as he has an OPS of nearly 100 points more against lefties. And Buehrle is no longer a lefty to write home about.
Christian Yelich FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 7419
Yelich is looking plenty comfortable as he transitions to the big leagues, and faces Jordan Lyles. Yelich is unplayable against left-handers, but against right handers? He's been a .950 OPS beast in his short major league career. Awesome play tonight.
Mark Trumbo FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6464
When Trumbo is at home, and he's facing a right hander, you'll probably see him on this list. Hudson is a nice ground ball pitcher, but Trumbo has a way of getting underneath a baseball.
Carl Crawford FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6093
Like Dee Gordon, Crawford couldn't care less about the size of Petco. He seems like he's back to his old free-wheeling self, and Tyson Ross certainly isn't enough to dissuade me from playing him.
Ben Revere FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5854
Revere is at the top of the lineup night in, night out - and showed what he could do in his first game against Texas this season. He'll get lots of opportunities, and isn't afraid to run when he's out there. He's not the best hitter in real life, but he can produce daily fantasy baseball value on this price.
Jose Bautista FanDuel 4500 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7010
The jury is still out on who the real Jose Bautista will be this year, but facing lefties is still his preference, and Moore struggles with both his control and giving up the long ball. Bautista likes this. He likes it very much.
Mike Carp FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 2400 DraftStreet 5744
If you want a punt option, look closely at Carp. It looks like he's going to play against righties, and Boston can score in bunches. Could be a sneaky upside play.
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