Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 4/14/14

There is just so much going for us today. It's a beautiful palindromic date. It's a short slate - which means it's easier for our opponents to make mistakes. It was actually warm out where I live today, and I could venture outside with my young son. With so much beauty in the world, it's a wonder I even get to the picks. But I'm running a god damned business here. So I do.

A quick note - our baseball product for FanDuel is LIVE!. It's going to be free until the end of the regular season in basketball - so PLEASE, if you have any feedback, we'd love to hear it!

Be sure to sign up for a free 3-day trial to access the NBA system and spreadsheets that help produce our picks. And give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr.

A little note about baseball picks

If you're coming over from basketball - welcome. If you're a lifelong fantasy baseball player, welcome. I want to give a quick heads up about how we are going to do our baseball picks.

Unlike basketball, contextual information matters very little baseball. Guys rarely take days off, and "playing well recently" means almost nothing. Playing time hardly ever changes (unlike in basketball where guys can increase their opportunities by 50% on a coach's whim), and when it does, it's fairly obvious.

So, we're going to be giving picks each day without huge write-ups. The only thing that changes about a player in a given day (for the most part) is the park he's playing in and the pitcher he is facing. Most of the other stuff is noise, unless a player has drastically changed his position in the lineup. For pitchers, all that really matters is who they are facing, which park, and if they've been recently injured.

We cool?

Let's do it.

 

Pitchers

Lance Lynn FanDuel 6900 DraftKings 8200 DraftStreet 15355
Lynn has been pretty unlucky this year, and the Brew Crew had a sub .700 OPS against right-handers last year. It's not a banner day for pitchers, but the Cards hit righties really well, and should match-up fairly decently against Garza... which brings me to:

Matt Garza FanDuel 7000 DraftKings 9400 DraftStreet 17013
Such a sketchy day for pitchers. Garza brings a healthy strike-out repertoire to the mound, and that's about all he has going for him here. This is really a less than ideal match-up, but it's that bad a day for pitchers, and Garza has real upside.

Colby Lewis FanDuel 5200 DraftKings 0 DraftStreet 0
Sort of a leap of faith on Lewis by the system here, but he's priced so low, and Seattle is such a fantastic match-up for righties, that I'm willing to dabble. Lewis used to have serious stuff, and he was very effective in 2012 before being shut down.

Also considered, though I'm not thrilled with any of them: Ervin Santana, Wandy Rodriguez, Wei-Yin Chen.

 

Catchers

Mike Zunino FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 2800 DraftStreet 6139
Zunino is very attractively priced for Lewis' return to the mound. Texas is a phenomenal park, and while Zunino is worse against righties, he's also as cheap as can be.

Miguel Montero FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 4563
Montero loves hitting against righties, and is much better in his terrific home park than on the road. Wheeler is a fine young pitcher, but he's not in his prime just yet, and Montero could capitalize.

Wilin Rosario FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 7926
Rosario is definitely better at home, but it's actually platoon situations that make the most difference for him. Stults is the perfect guy for Rosario to face off against, and while he might not homer, he could still provide plenty of value.

 

First Basemen

Freddie Freeman FanDuel 4100 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 8843
Tough to imagine a better match-up for the Freeman than the timeless Roberto Hernandez in Philadelphia. Philly provides a huge boost to left-handed homers, and Roberto Hernandez is... Roberto Hernandez. Freeman will be a huge play today, and justifiably. Plus, he hit a home run off the foul pole last night, which is awesome.

Chris Davis FanDuel 4400 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 6774
Davis has been off to a pretty slow start, but he's got a match-up directly suited to his strengths. Davis' wRC+ against righties at home is 136, which is 23 more than any other match-up permutation. Archer is another guy who is a fine young pitcher, but Davis should be able to get around on him without too much difficulty.

Ryan Howard FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5499
Big Erv can give up the long ball, and at this stage in his career, that's pretty much what Howard relies upon. He can still get the ball in the air, and I'm picturing a feast or famine game from Howard here - leaning towards feast.

Also considered: Joey Votto, Mark Reynolds

 

Second Basemen

Neil Walker FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 5994
The system continues to adore Walker against righties, so I'm going to have to keep listing him unless some news of injury comes out. I know he hasn't produced the way his projections would suggest, but facing a righty in a nice hitter's ball-park like Cincinnati's remains a terrific spot for him on a slow day around the league.

Dan Uggla FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 3800
Hey now! Uggla made us look smart, for once, by producing his last time out - and I'm here to recommend him again in an even better match-up than last time. Uggla is a reverse platoon split guy, meaning he favors hitting against righties even though he is right handed. Roberto Hernandez is arguably the best right-handed starter for a hitter to face, and Citizen's Bank is one of the best parks to hit in. Not a bad combination!

Robinson Cano FanDuel 4300 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6183
While I think Lewis still has something in the tank, you can believe Cano will be looking to feast upon this lefty/righty match-up in Texas. Definitely expecting a huge game from Cano, even if Lewis escapes with the win.

Also considered: Kolten Wong

 

Shortstops

Brad Miller FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5468
Seattle stack alert coming! Miller loves hitting righties, and loves hitting on the road. While I kinda like Lewis as an upside play, it won't stop me from piling on the Seattle lefties and hoping for an implosion.

Erick Aybar FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 5150
Largely a combination of the price and the poor pitcher on the other side of this match-up, but I don't see any reason why Aybar can't get on base a couple of times, score a run, and steal a base.

Elvis Andrus FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 8209
I'm just not a Roenis Elias believer, and I don't think my main man Elvis Andrus is, either. At home vs. lefties is his best match-up permutation, and I can see him getting on base and causing trouble tonight.

 

Third Basemen

Kyle Seager FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5712
Seager is actually a tremendously underrated hitter, due to his home park. While he's got just a 94 wRC+ against right-handers at home, that jumps to a startling 141 against right handers on the road. That's a huge number, and facing a questionable guy like Lewis could lead to huge returns here.

Chase Headley FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 5341
Headley's been picking it up recently, and while he is also a victim of his home park, he's actually been above league average for his position there as well. The price tag is too low for the potential output, especially against the young Lyles.

Evan Longoria FanDuel 4400 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7288
Wei-Yin Chen is the dream match-up for Longoria, who really only struggles against high velocity, big K guys. Baltimore is a great place to hit, and I'm expecting a very nice game here.

Also considered: Nolan Arenado, Martin Prado.

 

Outfielders

Jason Heyward FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6420
The Jay-Hey Kid heads into Philly with a lot of stuff* in his favor tonight. First off, there's Roberto Hernandez who probably has grandkids coming up through the minors right now. The ballpark plays to anyone looking to hit homeruns. And the splits come out on the side of Heyward. This pick is as much about price as anything.
*industry term

Desmond Jennings FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 6246
Jennings is a much better hitter against lefties, owning an .857 OPS last season against the northpaws (that's what we call them right?). Wei-Yin Chen isn't horrendous, but he isn't good either. The ballpark helps Jennings as well as Camden Yards is a hitter's paradise. I will have Jennings in a lot of spots.

Nick Markakis FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 5041
On the other side of thing, Markakis comes at a nice salary today. He doesn't exactly light the world on fire but there are a few things going for him. He bats leadoff for the O's meaning he could see an extra AB. On efficiency sites, he keeps his K's low which means he won't cost you a ton of points. On the other hand, the power is almost non existent. Not a tournament play really, but in double ups he should snag you some points.

B.J. Upton FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 3547
If you are looking to put some Braves together today, BJ is a near minimum salary guy. This is because he strikes out like twice in every at bat. Seriously. Good news here is Roberto Hernandez never strikes anyone out (don't let his first start of the season fool you, he isn't good). I don't mind throwing Upton in here on the upside.

Domonic Brown FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5523
In DFS you don't want to catch yourself looking back into gamelogs determining a player's future outcomes based on their past outcomes. I say this because by looking at Brown's early season lines, the home runs are non existent. This is good for you. Because Ervin Santana has had stretches of his career where he's been long-ball prone. I'm playing Brown in some spots today.

Jayson Werth FanDuel 4100 DraftKings 5300 DraftStreet 9311
My boy crushes lefties. Crushes them. Brad Hand is in trouble tonight. DraftStreet has price corrected on Werth's crazy splits. I'd probably avoid him there. But watch out.

Will Venable FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 2800 DraftStreet 3453
The early season hasn't been kind to Will, though he had a couple of RBIs yesterday. Faces a righty in Lyles today and is coming at bargain basement prices, especially on DraftStreet. Not a bad upside play when you throw in that he can swipe a bag.

Remember! You can use our Baseball Lineup Construction Tool for free until mid-April. Please check it out and give us feedback!

You can also sign up for our mailing list by using the column in the sidebar (and you'll get a free eBook on setting Daily Fantasy Basketball lineups. The Baseball eBook is on its way). Our mailing list puts the picks in your inbox like a freshly baked pie.