Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 4/24/14
Typical short slate on Thursday with a bunch of early games for the getaway day. Pitching is a bit odd today on two starter sites. But there is plenty of value out there with the bats.
Pitching is real tough today. On two or more SP sites it gets real dicey.
Scott Kazmir FanDuel 7600
I'm putting him first because he's the runaway best value at pitcher on FanDuel today. Probably outpriced on the other sites though because of opponent you can make the case. On FD he's in near must-start range. Houston, while not at the very bottom in the league against lefties, is damn close. Kazmir has run a bit hot to start, but the K's are there and this matchup is choice. If paying on DS or DK I'd play Scherzer over Kazmir
Tony Cingrani FanDuel 7800 DraftKings 9800 DraftStreet 17384
Our system really likes Cingrani facing the Pirates in Pittsburgh, but I have some concerns. On the surface let me say that I would strongly consider it because his K rate is good, the price isn't through the roof, the Pirates strikeout a bunch and PNC Park really dampens power, especially to righty hitters. My concerns are with how well the Pirates have hit lefties in the early season and Cingrani's elevated walk rate to start the season. I'd put him in as a GPP play but probably not in double ups.
After those two guys, it gets weird.
Max Scherzer DraftStreet 21997
Just in case you missed it, I'd probably considering paying for Scherzer on DS because the White Sox strike out a bunch. But they've also hit real well to start the year, so it isn't the safest thing in the whole world.
Corey Kluber FanDuel 6400 DraftKings 7700 DraftStreet 15921
Was expecting so much more for him this season. It's still early though and you can take a stab at him on a trickle of upside. Royals have really limited the K's, but Kluber has some decent games in that arm.
Not in love with the catching options today, so what else is new.
Miguel Montero FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5932
I like Montero today for a few reasons. He is playing in Wrigley which is about neutral on the power scale. So that's fine. But he also gets to face Edwin Jackson, a guy who can walk the ballpark if so inclined. Montero grinds out at bats and walks more than he k's. I think he's safe today to get on base which is about all you can ask for when we are talking about catchers today.
Victor Martinez FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6200
Always in the discussion because he hits behind Miggy. Though he's just meh against lefties, Martinez has an insanely low K rate this year. Read: 3%. I don't think I've ever wandered on to a stats page and seen that stat so low. Crazy. Quintana can K guys be he isn't lights out. I'm targeting safety at catcher today for the most part.
Josmil Pinto FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5910
Has been stinging the ball in the early season and already has four homeruns. Almost as impressive is his 24% walk rate. That surely is not going to keep up, though Bedard walks his share of guys so this might not be the day he sees it drop.
late- Derek Norris FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3100
Coming pretty cheap on FanDuel and facing the lefty Oberholtzer, I will slot Norris into some late lineups in the hope that he limites my downside (he doesn't K too much ) and has enough pop to sneak one in.
Miguel Cabrera FanDuel 3800
Listing him first as a note that you pretty much need to play him on FanDuel while his price remains this low. Not as enticing on the other sites where the price has climbed, but he's only the fourth most expensive 1B on FD. That's nuts. Especially playing the lefty Quintana.
Anthony Rizzo FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 7685
Bolsinger can strike guys out but probably not over the long term. Rizzo hits righties well and has a day game in Wrigley. Rizzo has shown flashes of power and has started the year real well. This could be him putting it all together if he keeps his K rate down.
Joe Mauer FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6133
Mauer is much better hitting from the right side of the plate against lefties. And Erik Bedard blows. Again, and I can't understate this really, Bedard is below average. I'll be playing a Twins stack with Pinto above and Colabello below against the lefty.
Juan Francisco FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5061
Third base eligible on DK and DS, Francisco hits righties well and has been in the middle of the Blue Jay order with Lind on the shelf. Our system likes him for the price and on his own merit, not even factoring for those around him too terribly much. Nice punt play today.
Dustin Pedroia FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 7141
I want to believe the wrist injury isn't completely sapping him of his power because Pedroia makes a strong play against the lefty Sabathia in Fenway tonight. Dustin is a lefty killer and had better than a 400 wOBA against southpaws last year. CC actually hasn't been terrible considering his loss in velocity, but he hasn't been great either. I like the upside of Pedroia today.
Anthony Rendon FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 7263
Love how he's been playing to start the year. Love that he's hitting either in the two hole or cleanup. And will always be targeting him against lefties like Eric Stults. Rendon should be a heavy start today because of the matchup. He had an 830 OPS against lefties last season and this is a great spot.
Early Ian Kinsler FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 5400 DraftStreet 8464
Kinsler is just light years better against lefties. His splits favor this side and he had a 359 wOBA against lefties last season. He isn't a top play across the board, but for the early slate he seems safe-ish.
Jose Reyes FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7233
You'll see that I like a few Blue Jays today, really the lefties, because Bud Norris struggles with that side of the plate. Norris owns a career 350 wOBA to that side of the plate and Reyes is better swinging from the left side. I can see the Blue Jays doing some real damage today.
Xander Bogaerts FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 5187
I'm mini-targeting Sabathia today with Pedroia and Bogaerts. Both hit lefties well I think Xander could be near the top of the order today with that consideration. For a shortstop, he's had a solid start to the season with the bat, getting on base at about a 400 clip. We'll take it even if his K numbers are a bit high.
Ian Desmond FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5991
Another Nat to look for against the lefty Stults. Desmond has been k-ing a metric ton to start the year which is a little troublesome, but Stults isn't a guy who puts opposing batters away.
Martin Prado FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 4719
I'm sticking with Prado here against Jackson, because over his career, Martin has been able to really limit the K's. Early this season that hasn't been the case, but his career numbers are so steady and low that I'm willing to see it as a blip. I like Prado for many of the same reasons as Montero. They stand to draw walks and Jackson can get wild.
Luis Valbuena FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 5290
Mike Olt FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 6670
I like whoever is starting today at the hot corner for the Cubs but for different reasons. Valbuena has been an on base machine, walking at nearly a 25% clip. Olt on the other hand has shown flashes of power. I'm in on both depending on who is penciled into the order.
Late consider Brett Lawrie
Jayson Werth FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 7250
Caaaarrushhes lefties. Just smokes them. I'm willing to pay pretty high prices to get him in against weak southpaws like Stults, who is trash. I've been through these numbers before, but Werth had almost an 1.100 OPS against lefties last year with a ridiculous 461 wOBA. Play him.
Chris Colabello FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 6039
He's been one of the cool stories from this early season, mostly because of his spike in RBI numbers. I will say I like him today, but don't love. Some of his early performance has been on the back of a whopping .460 Babip, meaning there is a healthy amount of regression on its way. And the RBIs suggest more of a timely hitting with guys on base than a true masher. But he draws a good matchup against the lefty and Twins should hit in this one.
Billy Hamilton FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 6930
I'm still going to keep recommending him whenever he faces off against pitchers without blow away stuff. He can rack up points on the base paths quickly. Like I've said before, paying for speed can be great in the right spots. As long as you don't reach for it. Getting a little steep on DS so I'd probably avoid there. But on FD where a K is just an out, go for it.
Gerardo Parra FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5733
Goes with a few of the D-Backs I've suggested. Has struggled to start the year, but I think you can slot him in on some upside for the prices.
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