Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 4/25/14
Zack Wheeler FanDuel 6700 DraftKings 8000 DraftStreet 15639
Well, Wheeler hasn't quite delivered the ERA that his biggest fans were hoping for, but for daily fantasy purposes, we're not concerned about that tonight. The Marlins finished a full .55 OPS points behind the next worse team against right handers last year. At a pathetic .614, the Marlins nearly set records for futility last year - and when you combine this with Wheeler's favorable home park, and he could be in line for a terrific fantasy performance.
Stephen Strasburg FanDuel 9500 DraftKings 11400 DraftStreet 23662
If you want to spend today, you better believe Strasburg will be topping a lot of lists. The ERA has been trash this year, but a lot of that isn't Strasburg's fault - and the Washington offense shouldn't have a ton of problems with Robbie Erlin. It's always a little risky to spend like this on a pitcher, but the K machine Strasburg is poised to have his best game of the season.
Shelby Miller FanDuel 7500 DraftKings 7800 DraftStreet 16157
Like Wheeler, Miller hasn't exactly been an ERA darling this year, but Shelbeast has a lot going for him in this game. The Pirates were 20th in the majors against right handers last year in terms in OPS, and Busch Stadium is underrated in terms of being a pitcher's park. Miller can rack up Ks, too, and I think the Cards are plenty poised to come away with the W.
Jesse Chavez FanDuel 5500 DraftKings 11000 DraftStreet 18335
Our system hasn't accounted for out of nowhere this guy has been early in the season. But, especially on FanDuel, this guy is a great start. Actually on FD he is close to a must start considering the price.
Also Considered: Matt Garza
Miguel Montero FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5822
Montero is riding a 6 game hit streak in which he has also hit his 2nd home run of the season. And now? He gets his best match-up of all of those games - the well aged Roberto Hernandez. And at home, no less! Dream match-up for Montero, who will be a huge start.
Victor Martinez FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 7630
Righties, lefties, Martinez doesn't much have a huge opinion. What he does have an opinion on is crushing terrible pitchers. Enter Kevin Correia, who hasn't had a relevant starting pitching moment in his journeyman's career. Big day for Martinez ahead, and likely the rest of the Tigers' mashers as well.
Alex Avila FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 2900 DraftStreet 3823
And now - for the guy who actually plays catcher for the Tigers, Mr. Alex Avila! Avila never blossomed into the superstar everyone thought he would be - but that's mostly because of his pathetic performance against left handers. Against righties, Avila can still mash - and Correia is one of the true poor righties in the league. Love the double-catcher Tigers stack!
Jason Castro FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5162
Castro has flexed some serious power so far this year - homering most recently out in Seattle. Facing the uninspiring Jesse Chavez at home is a dream spot - especially since Castro sports the largest platoon OPS disparity I've ever seen. He's a full .330 points better against righties.
Justin Morneau FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 5200 DraftStreet 8612
Morneau tops the list in spite of stepping away from the friendly confines of Coors field! He's quite simply a righty masher, he's crushing this year, and the system isn't a believer in Beckett's hollow ERA.
Mark Teixeira FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5661
Between injuries and cold weather, in-like-a-lamb Teixeira hasn't done a whole lot this season to justify this ranking. However! Tex prefers batting from the right side of the plate, and Yankee stadium is a heck of a place to hit. I'll be holding my nose and plugging Teixeira in in a few spots tonight. Went yard in Fenway last night and could keep it going in this one.
Anthony Rizzo FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5815
This smacks of a 3 true outcomes game for Rizzo. Garza hasn't been himself K wise this year, and Milwaukee's home park increases homers for lefties by a factor of 11%. Like a lot of young players with potential, Rizzo's star is only clouded by his poor performance against like-handed pitchers. Garza is not one of those.
Ben Zobrist FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7284
Zobrist has been doing a bit of everything this season, and the system has him topping the ranks largely due to the excellent hitters park (@CWS) and the particular wearer of White Sox that he has the opportunity of facing. Erik Johnson has been a nightmare all season long, and fans of the South-siders won't be waking up from it in this game against the Rays.
Dustin Pedroia FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7586
You may not think of Scrappy-Doo as a big platoon guy - but the fact remains, Pedroia is way better against lefties than righties. He's managed a near .400 OBP against southpaws for his career, and has nearly 50% more walks than strikeouts against them. He'll be on base early and often, and bats in a spot where his pals can't help but knock him in.
Daniel Murphy FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6004
Another underrated platoon split guy, Murphy's performance against righties is a mirror image of his performance against left handers. He's 14% better than league average against the former, and 14% worse than league average against the latter - at least in terms of wRC+. Henderson Alvarez is not exactly the toughest righty around, either.
Xander Bogaerts FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5401
Bogaerts is in the majors for his ability to hit left handing pitching at this point in his career. With a staggering 199 wRC+ against southpaws over a smallish sample size, Bogaerts has never seen an offering from the left side of the mound he hasn't loved. I don't see the elder statesman Buehrle changing this.
Derek Jeter FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 5021
We've recommended Jeter every time he's faced a lefty this year, and if you've listened to us, you've reaped the benefit of his .433 OBP and 122 wRC+ against them. Wilson is a tough-ish lefty, but he's not enough to scare me off Jeter in Yankee Stadium.
Jed Lowrie FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7085
Lowrie actually prefers lefties, but when the righty is Brad Peac*ck, and he's facing him at home, he doesn't really care. Whatever the opposite of the Cat's Pajamas is, that's Brad Peacock - with 15 Ks against 11 BBs in 14 innings this year, Peacock is an embarrassment to the game. I guess the Astros are, too, for only having two of them make this list.
Also considered; Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez
Pablo Sandoval FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 6024
It's not a banner day for 3Bs, but Sandoval draws a pretty nice match-up for him in Carrasco. Pablo is one of those odd reverse platoon split guys, with a 129 wRC+ against Righties, vs. a 103 wRC+ against left handers. You may think the park is less than ideal, but Pablo is actually a much better hitter at home than on the road. A great play in this one.
Pedro Alvarez FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7153
Pedro gonna Pedro. His 6 home runs are incredible, but as of this writing he's only had 8 other hits all season long. He's a feast or famine guy, but the feast side could come out in this favorable platoon matchup with Miller. He could also strike out 9 times. You've been warned/given good advice.
Nick Castellanos FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5985
Mostly a function of the predicted Kevin Correia feast that I've been predicting for tonight's games, and the opportunity to hit around other guys who should be feasting as well. He's shown a propensity to hit lefties better, but I mean, Correia has given up more hits than IPs, and has 12 Ks and 6 walks in 24 IP this year.
Also considered: Martin Prado
Christian Yelich FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 5006
Yelich has been everything you could have hoped he'd be this season, minus the lack of homers. He's seeing the ball terrifically, and is one of the most dramatic platoon split guys around. I'll be playing him heavily against Wheeler.
Carlos Gonzalez FanDuel 4600 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 9822
Cargo obviously prefers to hit at home, but the system thinks he'll crush Beckett wherever they play. It's mostly a lefty righty thing, and the fact that Cargo is plainly awesome. Makes a sweet stack with Mr. Morneau.
Matt Joyce FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 6962
I lied earlier. Joyce is the biggest platoon guy I've ever seen. A .364 point difference in OPS vs. lefties and righties? What the hell? Does he close one eye when batting against left handers? Swing one handed? Whatever. He faces a righty, and an awful one at that, in this game. Those stats have to come from somewhere, and for Joyce, it's matchups like this.
Billy Hamilton FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 5750
I want to be real with you for a second. Billy Hamilton, at this stage in his career, is simply an awful offensive player. But! He's done everything you could possibly hope for if you have him as a 1 trick pony this year. He has 17 hits and 9 steals. The cool thing about Hamilton for our purposes is that if he reaches base once he'll pay this price (with a hit and a steal), and there's potential for more. He's an oddly safe play in the daily fantasy format - as his points largely come from his own abilities.
Matt Kemp FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6841
Matt Kemp's career depresses the shit out of me. He should be right there in the conversation with Cargo Gonzalez. But he isn't! That being said, he's still a more than capable hitter, and Jordan Lyles is not yet a capable pitcher. Don't let the non-horrendous ERA fool you - Lyles is sporting a terrible K/BB ratio this year, and Kemp is suited to take advantage of it.
Torii Hunter FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 7372
Just another guy on the Correia killing bandwagon. Can't write the same thing 100 times, but just trust me on this one. Torii's been plenty serviceable so far this year, and he has his best match up yet.
Jayson Werth FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 7793
Werth has positively dominated lefties over the course of his career, sporting a .395 OBP and an OPS .130 points higher against lefties than righties. Erlin is a pretty unimpressive left hander, which mitigates the downside of hitting in Petco.
Alex Gordon FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5584
Jimenez is fully in pumpkin status at this point, with 18 Ks against 13 BBs this season. Gordon prefers right handers quite a bit, and Baltimore is a fantastic place to hit.
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