Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 4/26/14
Love Saturdays in MLB. Games all days and plenty of excuses to get some money in. Lot of value with the bats today. Let's check it out.
Also, we took on Randy William (@devilball420) over at Daily Fantasy Sports Network in the second day of H2H on FanDuel. I won day one, he took day two. I'll post a link later with a write up about my thought process with my plays.
Anibal Sanchez FanDuel 7800 DraftKings 8400 DraftStreet 18714
Though the Twins have hit righties well to start the season, some of there success is Babip fueled. This is still a team with a weak bottom of the linuep, that strikes out about 22% of the time. Sanchez's K rate is still there, though the walks are up a tick. He probably isn't the ace he appeared to be last year, but he's good. Add in that Target Field really dampens power and you've got a nice play today for Sanchez's prices.
Dan Straily FanDuel 6400 DraftKings 7800 DraftStreet 16588
Houston sucks. Let's start there. They strike out the most in the league against righties and Straily has been K-ing almost 9 per 9 this season. He's run a little bad and his xFIP is 1.70 runs below his era. That's encouraging and the prices are right in the value range. I'd consider playing him everywhere.
Marco Estrada FanDuel 6700 DraftKings 10100 DraftStreet 19297
He's really only a play on FD. I'd probably avoid on the other sites. Estrada is buoyed by the Cubs striking out a metric ton this season against righties. Estrada's numbers aren't uplifting, but he is a solid pitcher and I'm targeting opponent here as much as anything.
Wilin Rosario FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6712
Even though this game isn't being played in Coors and the fact that Dodger Stadium suppresses power to righties still doesn't sway me from Wilin today. In fact, those two park factors are the only reason he isn't the runaway favorite for best catching option for the money today. He crushes lefties and Paul Maholm is a lefty who can and does get killed.
Salvador Perez FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 2900 DraftStreet 5139
Perez's matchup is almost as good as Rosario's and makes for a strong play across the board. He faces a lefty in Wei-Yin Chen who isn't exactly Randy Johnson* in his prime. Perez is a lefty killer, hitting to the tune of a 374 wOBA against southpaws** last year.
** Now would be a good time to mention that I've looked up synonyms for lefties so as to find more options in the writing. Don't want this shit to get stale. Alas, the other words would make no sense. "Gauche" was one of them. No one would know what I was talking about.
Derek Norris FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 2900 DraftStreet 6628
I have a feeling Derek Norris dreams about lefties. Nevermind, I know he does. Wouldn't you if you had a 137 RC+ against them over your career. That's wet dream time and I'm sure he changed his sheets this morning knowing Dallas Keuchel (even with an elevated K rate) was on the docket.
Chris Davis FanDuel 4400 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 7575
Yes. Yes please. Chris Davis's biggest problem is the strikeout. Jeremy Guthrie's biggest problem is not being able to strike guys out. See where these two thoughts meet? Crush is an insane value today and should be a high percentage start in all formats.
David Ortiz FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 8699
Morrow can strike guys out, but he's also extremely wild. Ortiz is a patient hitter who, considering his power numbers, hardly strikes out. He also takes a decent amount of walks. I like him today in certain spots because he's always a threat to jack one (mind out of the gutter, thanks) and is safe because of the walks.
Ryan Howard FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 7406
Upside play against Arroyo, who blows against lefties. I'm stacking all lefty Phillies in a bunch of spots because there could be a lot of homeruns against Bronson today and I want some shares of those dongs. You know what I mean.
Miguel Cabrera FanDuel 4500 DraftKings 5500 DraftStreet 9777
Gets a great matchup against the flyball pitcher in Hughes. My biggest hang up is the price in some places. On FanDuel I like the prices, but everywhere else he's trending more expensive. I'm giving you him as a play because I feel obligated to diversify a bit, but I'd still take Crush for the money.
Chase Utley FanDuel 4100 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 7952
How much do we need to discuss this one? For Utley, dude is about even over his career in his splits. He's just a great hitter. His big bump comes from Arroyo being straight awful against lefties. He's allowed a .359 wOBA over his career against lefties. If had a lefty batboy I'd put him in to face Arroyo just on the upside.
Robinson Cano FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7114
You like to buy low on guys? Me too. Cano has sucked since donning the Mariner, um, navy blue and tealish blue/ green kind of or whatever it's called. (Doesn't have the same Yankee pinstripe ring to it) He's bee awful considering his talent, and you are in a great spot to grab him at a discount today against Colby Lewis who isn't terrible, but isn't elite either.
Daniel Murphy FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6002
Murphy makes a relatively safe play against Slowey today. I wouldn't look for him to provide enormous upside, but Slowey doesn't strike anyone out and Murphy's prices are right in the value zone. Murphy himself doesn't K a ton meaning he should be making contact today.
Jimmy Rollins FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 7595
As stated previously, Arroyo is garbage against anyone hitting from the left side of the plate. Problem here is Rollins is also kind of garbage-y from the right side. Still taking some on the value here, but there isn't a ton of upside. Shortstop is weak though, meaning I might pay for the negative split.
Erick Aybar FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3000 DraftStreet 5904
Aybar is better against lefties and Vidal Nuno has the kind of name only a hair dresser could love. Those two things combined mean a good play right?
Yunel Escobar FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 2800 DraftStreet 3944
I much prefer Yunel against lefties and so should you. I will be running a few Rays out there against Danks because the splits favor righties against him.
Evan Longoria FanDuel 4200 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 7910
Just destroys lefties. He hit them to the tune of a 950 OPS last season with close to a 400 wOBA. Those numbers mean something and his price isn't totally reflective of that platoon split. He is such a safe play against Danks that I'll be working him into my cash game lineups at every opportunity.
David Wright FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 5888
Walks are down, strikeouts are up. Not two things you want to hear from a guy that's getting a pick. Wright may be pressing to start the season. But Slowey isn't a guy who can blow hitters, especially of D-W's caliber, away. I like playing him on the price point which is bottoming out because of his early season struggles.
Aramis Ramirez FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6971
Tunes up lefties and is in play anytime one is on the mound. Today it's Travis Wood, a guy who has been pitching well beyond his career numbers. I'm not totally convinced the strikeouts for Wood are a real thing, but they do make me notice a bit. Still like Aramis as I feel Wood regresses to some of his career marks.
Consider: Josh Donaldson - Great splits, but is a bit expensive
Andrew McCutchen FanDuel 4200 DraftKings 5500 DraftStreet 9454
Starling Marte FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 7022
I'm putting these guys together because the reasons behind playing them are the same. Tyler Lyons is a mediocre lefty facing off against two guys who destroy that hand. Just obliterate lefties. Both guys laid wood for over 1K OPS's on that platoon split last season. It could be open season on Lyons from the top of the Pirate batting order. I'm giddy.
Domonic Brown FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5691
Phillies stack! Phillies stack! Say it with me! Phillies stack. Only lefties of course, but there are enough of them today. You can do it. Brown hasn't flashed the big power numbers yet, but Arroyo is the kind of guy to break lefties out of power slumps.
Billy Hamilton FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6004
Always in play if you want to pay for speed, and with Hamilton that makes sense. Our system likes him because it has him projected out for a ton of stolen bases. David Hale isn't a guy who will blow you away, is running hot with his ERA and walks a bunch of guys. Great spot for Hamilton today.
Desmond Jennings FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 6516
Wil Myers FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6555
Like Marte and McCutch, I'm putting these guys together because you should perk up when you see these facing a lefty. Jennings and Myers both had favorable splits against lefties last season and I like the chances of the Rays turning the lineup over a couple of times tomorrow against Danks.
Drew Stubbs FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 2700 DraftStreet 4543
If he gets the nod tomorrow, I like him as a cheap value play against the left. Stubbs has a career wRC+ of 116 against lefties, and for the prices can have some significant upside if the Rockies go off.
Alex Gordon FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 5876
Gordon is a reverse splits guy and hits lefties just fine. While Chen neutralize lefties, I still like Gordon to take advanage at reduced prices.
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