Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 4/29/14

Full slate of games for this Tuesday so start getting prepared. Lots of losers on the mound tonight which is great for some big bats.

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Pitchers

Jose Fernandez FanDuel 10200 DraftKings 11600 DraftStreet 22777
Basically have to put him out there because of the early season returns. What he's doing on the mound is just nuts. I want to say he's been lucky. But he hasn't. Luck is taken out when you just strike everyone out. His 13.36 K/9 is gross. The xFIP is 1.71 and shows no signs of moving to any significant degree. He's just amazing. The Braves are middle of the road against righties and are prone to the K. Oh, by the way, he had 14 K's last time they met a week ago.

Cole Hamels FanDuel 8200 DraftKings 8300 DraftStreet 18010
Have to love this matchup today. The Mets seem to be getting paid per strikeout. The hitters at least. How else to explain their close to 28% K rate so far against lefties. That is an insanely high number. Hamels only has one outing under his belt, but it was a fine performance against the Dodgers and his price hasn't jumped too much. He's below some other guys like Gio and Cingrani who I like a bit less just for the dollars. The K potential is almost too good to pass up even with so many other big name studs going tonight.

Alex Wood FanDuel 7700 DraftKings 10000 DraftStreet 17255
The Marlin offense is coming back down to Earth and will continue to fall in the rankings as their Babip normalizes. Right now they are in the lower third of the league against lefties with a .290 wOBA. Wood has been fantastic so far this year, K-ing a dude an inning and limiting the walks. The big downside for Wood here is the Braves facing Fernandez meaning his chances at a win are diminished. This will be a low scoring game. I still like Wood on just the K's alone. But scraping out a W will be tough.

Matt Cain FanDuel 7100 DraftKings 7800 DraftStreet 16506
Looking at Cain because of the matchup. The Padres are complete trash. They are near the bottom of the league in just about every relevant hitting category and Cain, while not fantastic, has been fine to start the year. The K's are there a bit and he doesn't walk a ton of guys. Gets a boost from the ballpark that limits power to lefties (Padres don't really have any anyway, but still).

 

Catchers

Brian McCann FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 7337

Going to see some Yankees on this list tonight. Chris Young is garbage. Don't let that mid 3's ERA fool you in any way. His xFIP is in the 6's, walks as many as he K's and is fixing to get crushed tonight. McCann has a big split that favors him facing righties and could tee off tonight.

Buster Posey FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6729
Is a lefty destroyer with close to a 900 OPS against southpaws last season. It's a close call between he and McCann today mostly because the ballpark differences are worth mentioning. McCann has a much better park factor in his favor and a lower price tag. But Posey is in a great spot and will also be a high percentage play.

 

First Basemen

Joey Votto FanDuel 4200 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 7198
Votto has been his usual, awesome self this season, hitting with more than a 900 OPS and walking more than he's striking out. This is important when facing Edwin Jackson who walks a ton of batters, almost 5 per 9. I like Votto as a very safe play today especially considering he had close to a 1K OPS against righties last season. (Update: Jackson is pushed back in favor of Samardzija, lowering Votto's value a tad)

Mark Teixeira FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 7090
Continuing a Yankee theme, Tex grabs Chris Young in a great park for lefties. For his career, Teixeira has been better against lefties, but he's been damn good against righties so I'm not worried about the splits here. You need to have exposure to the Yankees plain and simple.

Edwin Encarnacion FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 7755
The strikeouts are a major concern and I'm hoping it isn't a sign of something else, but Encarnacion is solid against lefties and Vargas isn't exactly lights out. Good news also, at least for E5 is that Vargas isn't a big strikeout guy. If you are looking to cut down on your swings and misses, Vargas is good on that end.

Justin Morneau FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 10042
Playing in a park that is better than league average in allowing homeruns from the left side of the plate, Morneau faces off against Bolsinger, who despite some nice early returns, isn't someone that can be completely counted on to shut down opposing offenses.

 

Second Basemen

Dustin Pedroia FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 8425
A lefty destroyer. This is a great matchup for Pedroia, and though he's a bit pricey on DraftStreet, he's a top play everywhere else. Pedroia has close a 1K OPS last season against lefties and Bedard sucks. Like really sucks. Bedard has walked more guys than he's struck out in limited innings so far this season. Pedroia has yet to hit a home run this year, which is concerning considering he has some wrist issues. That's the only thing that gives me pause. Wrist injuries are murder on power numbers.

Ian Kinsler FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 7348
Kinsler is significantly better in his career against lefties and faces off against Quintana who's fine but not overwhelming mostly because he doesn't generate too many strikeouts. Kinsler and some other Tiger righties should be able to put some runs on the board.

Brandon Phillips FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 4688
This is based mostly on price. He's been dreadful to start the season, striking out a boat load. But if you are looking for upside amid a Reds lineup that could put some runs on the board, Phillips' price is low. But he's been bad. So buyer beware.

 

Shortstops

Xander Bogaerts FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 6627
If you can't tell, I think the Red Sox are going to put up some runs tonight. Bogaerts in his short career much prefers hitting against lefties. I mean I haven't asked him or anything, just assuming. The sample size is super small, but he's got a 188 wRC+ against southpaws. I don't want to completely overrate it, but we can say he is better facing that hand.

Dee Gordon FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 5778
Kyle Gibson blows. Gordon, if he's hitting leadoff, is in a great spot against a guy who walks the same amount of guys as he strikes out. Speed is the key here and if he's on base, he's off to the races.

Jose Reyes FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6182
The splits don't completely favor this for Reyes, but SS is real bad tonight and I am not liking really any of the mid-tier guys at the position. Vargas isn't a great pitcher and Reyes, at the top of the lineup, stands to be in a favorable position to meet some of his price today. Again, pickings are thin here.

Consider: Chris Owings and Ian Desmond

 

Third Basemen

Pedro Alvarez FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5490
Like Pedro for a couple of reasons today. Chicks dig the long ball and that is basically all Pedro can do. Secondly, Chris Tillman is a fly ball pitcher who is prone to allowing the long ball. Chicks don't dig that. Alvarez is basically a three true outcomes kind of guy, but I'll target him against righties who put the ball in the air.

Adrian Beltre FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6738
Though Kazmir strikes out a ton of guys, the ERA is a little luck driven and Beltre hammers lefties. He had a 950 OPS against them last season and I'll consider him on non-efficiency sites because of the upside.

David Wright FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 6441
Only because he's just so good against lefties would I consider him against Hamels.

Alberto Callaspo FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 6364
Martin Perez isn't as good as he appears. His xFIP is a full two runs behind his era and Callaspo hits better against lefties. I like him as a low percentage play that could provide some contrarian upside if perez regresses some.

Consider: Will Middlebrooks

 

Outfielders

Jacoby Ellsbury FanDuel 4100 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 9149
I think he will be a huge cash game play. At least he should be. We have Ellsbury as the top big money hitter on the board tonight. He's better against righties, isn't a favorite strike out, should be on base and has a crazy multiplier considering the price tag. I think I'll be playing him about everywhere. Jacoby is without a home run this year. It won't stay that way for long. And I don't subscribe to a gambler's fallacy in this regard, but facing shitty pitchers is the way to cure that kind of thing.

Carlos Beltran FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 8084
Beltran is right behind him and I'll be getting both into multiple formats tonight. Beltran had an 376 wOBA against righties last season. The Yankee uniform has done nothing to screw with that success. These two guys, if you can work the salaries, make for prime hitting options today.

Billy Hamilton FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 6502
I've said many times that I target Billy against guys who put batters on base and don't completely overpower batters. Jackson is right on the cusp of this profile. His strikeouts can be there. But the walks are a real thing and God forbid you put this guy on base. He'll run wild. (Update: I'd probably take off Hamilton now that Samardzija has been named starter)

Brett Gardner FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6555
Had to break up the Yankees by at least one guy. Speed all over the outfield tonight and Gardner makes a great midrange play on a night the Yankees should put up runs. If you can't afford Beltran because you spend more on pitching, Gardner makes a great substitute.

Matt Kemp FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6825
I mentioned this before, but it's worth rehashing, Kyle Gibson is atrocious. I don't have a ton of Dodgers in play tonight but Kemp comes at a discount and for once I'm willing to look a little past the platoon split because the opponent doesn't get things like outs.

Jay Bruce FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7461
Fuck it, I've picked so many other Reds, why not?

Consider: Corey Hart, Carl Crawford and
Yoenis Cespedes (if he plays)

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