Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 4/30/14

A big Wednesday in MLB. With a few rainouts yesterday and a couple of pitchers getting pushed back, some of the plays below are the same as yesterday simply because the considerations stayed the same. I took the wording from yesterday if it still applied.

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Pitchers

Zack Greinke FanDuel 9800 DraftKings 11000 DraftStreet 20749
It should be mentioned that I didn't have Greinke on yesterday's list because I felt there were just so many better options for the dollars with a number of decent bigger money plays. Tonight? Not so much. And he jumps to the top of the list. Greinke's been a stud to start the season, crushing his career K/9 with a 12.27 and an xFIP of 1.89. Those numbers don't seem sustainable, but they are real. The Twins have been real good with the bat to start the year, and while it's a little Babip fueled, they are still OPS'ing almost 800 against lefties. But in terms of K's and upside, Greinke seems like the play to me.

Jordan Zimmermann FanDuel 8800 DraftKings 9400 DraftStreet 21422
Don't let that ERA north of 4 get you down. Zimmerman's been damn good so far this season, K-ing more than 9 per nine and getting a little unlucky with the Babip. He gets an Astros team near the bottom of the league against righties. They strikeout a ton, though might not be as awful as they appear. The Astro Babip against righties is an absurdly low 229. That is crazy and could mean they will see an uptick in offense as things gets straightened out. Zimmerman still a great option today, as even with a bit more luck, Houston is bad.

Tony Cingrani FanDuel 8300 DraftKings 9400 DraftStreet 19959
Another guy I wasn't a huge fan of on Tuesday, but what a difference a day makes. Cingrani was lost in the shuffle of quality arms yesterday, but makes a decent play today. The Cubs are striking out the most in the league against lefties at a rate of 27.8%. That's like what I do to my three year old when I bringing the wiffle ball heat. Cingrani gets strikeout, but What I don't like is the walk rate. He's putting far too many guys on base. I still like the upside with the K's but beware a little.

Strategy Note
I think there is an upside play on DraftStreet today with three decent strikeout guys in Ventura, Hutchison and Erlin all priced in the 11-12k range. I'm tempted to start at least two of them. Maybe all three in some spots.

 

Catchers

Victor Martinez FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 7320
On sites where he qualifies at catcher, I'm a fan of the safety VMart provides. While Noesi isn't a complete pushover, he isn't great either. Hitting in the middle of the lineup behind Miggy has significant advantages and Martinez, whenever they face a mediocre pitcher will be in play.

Alex Avila FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 2900 DraftStreet 3910
He was scratched yesterday with a back issue. If the Tigers get him back in the lineup today I think you can put him out there. He is better against righties and I can see Detroit putting up some runs.

Mike Zunino FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 2700 DraftStreet 4138
Weird play here which seems like it will only end in two outcomes: K's or dongs. David Phelps whiffs guys and Zunino strikes out a ton. Phelps also can let up home runs and Zunino has some pop. Would slot him in on some upside if he goes yard in Yankee Stadium.

 

First Basemen

Joey Votto FanDuel 4000 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 7173
Votto has been his usual, awesome self this season, hitting with more than a 900 OPS and walking more than he's striking out. This is important when facing Edwin Jackson who walks a ton of batters, almost 5 per 9. I like Votto as a very safe play today especially considering he had close to a 1K OPS against righties last season.

David Ortiz FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 8130
First base is very tough today, in a good way. There are so many solid options. What I would probably do is construct the rest of your lineup and fill in first base near the end with whatever seems to fit your budget the best. Each of these guys is around the same multiplier and range a little in price. Ortiz has a strong matchup against Archer and like Votto, I love him in cash games because he limits his K's.

Mark Teixeira FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 8063
Tex was a top pick for us yesterday and he went yard. Stays near the top of the list tonight against the lefty Elias. Teixiera is a better hitter against southpaws for his career, holding a .398 wOBA. The park factors help as well and he's priced reasonably across the board.

Miguel Cabrera FanDuel 4400 DraftKings 5700 DraftStreet 9898
He's really high in our system though it should be stated that I think our projections punish Noesi a bit more than is fair.

 

Second Basemen

Neil Walker FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 6003
Quietly has six, count em six, homeruns this year. I'll be honest, I wasn't completely aware of this. Guess his performance has been lost in the shuffle. Probably because these are the only hits he seems to get. Even with the power he has only a 700 OPS. But like Alvarez below, Walker is in a good spot against Tillman who's a flyball pitcher and prone to the long ball.

Dee Gordon FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 6416
This is based mostly on price. He's been dreadful to start the season, striking out a boat load. But if you are looking for upside amid a Reds lineup that could put some runs on the board, Phillips' price is low. But he's been bad. So buyer beware.

Cheap option Logan Forsythe

 

Shortstops

Jose Reyes FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6553
If you want to spend in the middle tier you can go with Jose I suppose. He has good success against righties and hitting leadoff gives him another tiny bump on the off chance of an extra at bat. That being said, Ventura does strike guys out. I don't mind Reyes as a fairly safe play today considering the cast of characters also appearing at shortstop throughout the league.

Yunel Escobar FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 2900 DraftStreet 4460
He stinks. But he stinks less against lefties.

Troy Tulowitzki FanDuel 5200 DraftKings 5700 DraftStreet 10219
I'm putting him down here, because of price only. With the positional scarcity, Tulo is through the roof in terms of salary. But that's because the other options are just so bad. I wouldn't feel great about it because it's an overpay and will limit your flexibility elsewhere. But he's so far and away the best shortstop that it's tough to leave him off the list ever.

 

Third Basemen

Pedro Alvarez FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 5590
Like Pedro for a couple of reasons today. Chicks dig the long ball and that is basically all Pedro can do. Secondly, Chris Tillman is a fly ball pitcher who is prone to allowing the long ball. Chicks don't dig that. Alvarez is basically a three true outcomes kind of guy, but I'll target him against righties who put the ball in the air.

Evan Longoria FanDuel 4000 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7864
I know you know this already. But for the uninitiated you are about to onboarded to the Evan Longoria-against-lefties experience. He kills them. A 950 OPS against southpaws last season and has picked up right where he left off this season. Doubront is hit or miss (pun intended) and the only thing that cools me on Longoria is the price in some places.

Carlos Santana FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 4927
Maybe he's not broken? I don't know. What I do know is that he's significantly better against lefties and went yard finally the other night. CJ Wilson isn't a dream matchup, but Santana is still dirt cheap.

Martin Prado FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3000 DraftStreet 5882
Still coming cheap, hitting near the top of the order and facing off against Jordan Lyles.

 

Outfielders

Billy Hamilton FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 6452
I've said many times that I target Billy against guys who put batters on base and don't completely overpower batters. Jackson is right on the cusp of this profile. His strikeouts can be there. But the walks are a real thing and God forbid you put this guy on base. He'll run wild.

Jay Bruce FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 7572
I want to get some Reds in against Jackson just because the guy puts people on base and there is always upside against pitchers who get wild.

Desmond Jennings FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 7261
Has a crazy split in favor of facing lefties and I have almost no faith in Doubront against a patient team like the Rays. Jennings, near the top of the order, with the split in his favor could be in line for a nice line. Consider Wil Myers along the same lines.

Carl Crawford FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 2700 DraftStreet 6517
Matt Kemp FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 7007
Kyle Gibson is so bad that I'd be stacking a couple of Dodgers at least. These two guys make for great plays in the outfield in the mid tier price range. Gibson could really get rocked here and I think you need at least some exposure to Dodgers because of the pitching matchup. Kemp's splits don't completely favor it, but I'm willing to run both of them out there.

Jayson Werth FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 7116
Feasts on lefties like Magnar of Thenn. Went Game of Thrones on you there just to drive home the point. Watch out Oberholtzer.

Consider: Carlos Gonzalez

 

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