Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/3/14

Tired of shedding bankroll? Be sure to sign up for a free 3-day trial to access the MLB system and spreadsheets that help produce our picks. And give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr.

 

Pitchers

Michael Wacha FanDuel 8400 DraftKings 10700 DraftStreet 20884
A little overpriced on DK and DS, but safe for a cash game play. Wacha has had a fantastic start to the year, K-ing nearly 11 per 9 and limiting the walks to less than 3 per 9. His xFIP is under 3.00 and all signs point to him being one of the better young pitchers in the game. He faces a Cubs team that's near the bottom of the league in about every relevant hitting category against righties. They've got a team OPS of .612 and a wRC+ of 69. If you aren't fluent in these stats, they suck. Wacha makes a safer play on a day that is a bit of a pitching minefield.

Ian Kennedy FanDuel 6900 DraftKings 8900 DraftStreet 16566
We've been on Kennedy almost all season and he hasn't disappointed. His 4.5  K/BB rate is fantastic, he's striking out a batter an inning and keeping balls in the ballpark. The homeruns and the OPS against are due for a bit of a regression based on a lower Babip, but his xFIP is in line with his ERA so I'm not feeling like he's luckboxing his way to success. The price is climbing a bit from the insane deals you were getting on him before, but I think there is still some buy-low to Kennedy. On a weak day for pitching he makes a solid start.

Drew Smyly FanDuel 6500 DraftKings 6300 DraftStreet 15683
Yup, this is the kind of pitching day we are having. Smyly makes a solid/ unspectacular option. His upside is that he comes so cheap against a Royals team that is second to last in the league in OPS against lefties. This mostly because they have so little power through the lineup. That being said, the Royals don't strikeout that much, choosing to just make weak contact. Smyly can strike guys out and limits his walks. For the dollars, I'd put him in there in some spots.

Dallas Keuchel FanDuel 6300 DraftKings 8700 DraftStreet 12003
Couple things to like about Keuchel today. He's started off the year striking out just about a batter an inning and his xFIP is 2.84. These are a solid base when facing a squad like the Mariners who are in the bottom third of the league against lefties. The M's have a team strikeout rate of 22% and a team OPS of .669 against lefties. As a cheaper option, Keuchel has some interesting upside.

Quick note on Julio Teheran:
You will see him as a recommended play from some other outfits. I'm not touching him. Even against a weaker Giants team Teheran scares me. His early success is built on two primary stats, Babip and LOB% (with a little bump in GB% to help). His xFIP is 3.5 runs behind his ERA. Simply stated: he can't keep this up. Paying top end prices for him is asking for trouble.

 

Catchers

Brian McCann FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 6924
McCann went yard last night against a lefty (a rare feat for him) and today faces off against Odorizzi, a righty with some control issues. McCann has some pretty extreme platoon splits that favor him facing righties. With the short porch in right against a guy who can let up the long ball, as well as a bunch of walks, this is looking like a real strong play for the cost.

Evan Gattis FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 7067
Vogelsong is trash, can't strike anyone and lets up home runs in bunches. That's the impetus for getting Gattis into lineups. The Braves in general are in a good spot today because their big weakness is the K. The isn't something Vogelsong focuses on. He pitches to hard hit, long ball contact. And then gets yanked.

 

First Basemen

It's tough to pick a first baseman today. In fact, it's hard to choose four first basemen today. There is a group of guys, closely packed near the top, especially on FanDuel.

Joey Votto FanDuel 4000 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6975
I love taking Votto in cash games when the price is right because he is just so adept at getting on base and making contact. I'm in no way fooled by Gallardo's early season sub 2 ERA. He's been luckbox trash and is due for a little regression. Votto the other hand is his usual 900 OPS self and is walking more than he's striking out. Great spot against Gallardo and I'm going to try and have him in some of my cash games.

Freddie Freeman FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 7500
Oh yes please. He's right behind Votto today and gets an even better pitching matchup in Vogelsong. Freeman has put up some solid early season numbers and is a favorite to improve on them today. Vogelsong sucks and the Braves a solid team to stack. I only wish they had more quality left-handed hitters. Freeman is OPS-ing over 900 so far with an ISO of 238. I'm loving him in some GPPs today because the upside is significant.

Mark Teixeira FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7309
Went yard again last night which only makes you feel better about the pick. Our system doesn't account for the day-to-day fluctuations of a player (it's emotionless). But I always like to know my guys are at least swinging the bat ok. Tex is pretty platoon neutral and has a nice matchup against Odorizzi.

Josh Satin FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 2700 DraftStreet 4545
The sample size isn't huge, but Satin has proven to be a significantly better hitter against lefties in his career. He's got a 142 wRC+ against lefties and playing in Coors only boosts his value today. For the dollars, he's one of the top plays in the system. Really not a cash game play, but the upside is there against a wild Franklin Morales.

Consider: Prince Fielder, especially on DraftStreet.

 

Second Basemen

Ian Kinsler FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 7555
If Duffy is pitching this game then look out for basically every Tiger right-handed batter. Kinsler is much better against lefty pitching and this could be a game the Tigers put up a bunch of runs. I'm not buying Duffy's K rate so far this season and think the Tigers tee off against him. His career xFIP is near five and will have difficulty navigating the middle of the Tiger order that is primarily right-handed and about as tough as it gets.

Howie Kendrick FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7374
Always a guy to target against lefties, Kendrick OPS'd 860 with southpaws on the mound last season. With Matt Harrison on the bump you've got a contact hitter facing a pitcher who doesn't induce a ton of swing and misses. This is a great place to meet on the graph. Kendrick's price has corrected on sites like DraftStreet, but he makes a nice play everywhere else, especially in cash games.

Dustin Pedroia FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 6910
The power did seem sapped. I'm concerned there is a real issue with his wrist and that this will be a problem all year. He's got one home run on the season courtesy of last night, but overall it might be a problem. He's hitting more groundballs than at any point in his career. So, this is a weird writeup for a guy I'm picking isn't it? Well Pedroia's struggles are easy to ignore for a second when he's facing a lefty like Milone. If it weren't for the power outage he'd be the top play. Now, he's on the radar.

Neil Walker FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5601
Has been stinging the ball and makes a nice upside play against Dickey. Walker has a bunch of early season home runs, a pace he surely won't keep, but is priced advantageously in some spots.

 

Shortstops

Asdrubal Cabrera FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5848
Is better against righties and Scott Carroll, just called up from the minors, with a mediocre track record there, doesn't pose too significant a threat. Cabrera isn't a great hitter, but at a weak position he bats in a solid lineup and has a nice matchup against Carroll. I'm not over the moon about this pick, but the positional scarcity makes getting a few bucks in here not the worst play in the whole world.

Xander Bogaerts FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5691
Smaller sample size, but Xander is much better against lefties. Bigger sample size and Tommy Milone is not that good of a pitcher. Xander's K rate is a bit high, but he's also taking a bunch of walks and has a season OPS over 750. From a shortstop, that's more than acceptable. I like the Red Sox getting to Milone today and want to find value in their lineup where possible.

Andrelton Simmons FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 5784
I like Simmons today because he just makes a ton of contact and gets to face a pitcher that doesn't strike many guys out. That is a recipe for success. Andrelton has a K rate of only 3% this season. That is absurdly low. And he's running a bit off in Babip. If you are putting Braves in a lineup together this is a nice spot to pick up a few extra points.

 

Third Basemen

David Wright FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 5169
Will probably be here tomorrow too. And any other day he's playing in Coors facing a lefty. I could probably just copy and paste the notes from yesterday. But you know the drill. Wright is significantly better against lefties, Franklin Morales is not a good lefty and Coors really bumps up the power multiplier. Great play and will be a huge cash game start.

Carlos Santana FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6033
Has been on a tear lately, and while I'm much more inclined to play him against lefties, Santana deserves a mention here today because he's facing a AAA pitcher in Scott Carroll. The White Sox have been trotting some true losers out to the mound and today is just another in a line of guys who probably aren't major league pitchers.

Pedro Alvarez FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 5168
It kind of depends on what version of RA Dickey you get today. Dickey has days of strikeout stuff, in which the knuckler is moving and the control is tight. Those days are becoming further apart. His walk rate is elevated and he can let up the long ball. This is a tournament play as Pedro can K and get lost in a game, but the home run potential is there.

 

Outfielders

Giancarlo Stanton FanDuel 4500 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 9377
I think he's a little pricey on DraftStreet, but completely in play everywhere else. Stanton slaughters lefty pitching with a 1K OPS last year, representative of a pretty disparate split and face off against Paul Maholm. The park in Miami suppresses power a bit, though when you hit scenic shots like Stanton it doesn't matter so much.

Adam Jones FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6485
Has been struggling a bit to start this year, mostly on the back of an elevated K rate. This is troublesome in some respects, but also correctable. And don't expect that percentage to climb at all today. Kevin Correia is bad and doesn't strike anyone out and is bad. Did I mention he's bad? I really like Jones today because the pitching matchup is just so choice.

Shane Victorino FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 8685
Shane is much better hitting from the right side of the plate, carrying over an 860 OPS last season against lefties. He utilizes the Green Monster and is jammed in between Pedroia and Ortiz. That's about as good as it gets from a lineup standpoint. He's in a good spot against a weak Milone and the Red Sox should be putting some runs on the board today.

Carlos Beltran FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 7686
Jacoby Ellsbury FanDuel 4100 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 9601
I have them grouped together because both stand to rake against Odorizzi. The Yankees in general are providing some quality value and I'll be working some lineups together with both of these guys and McCann. Both Beltran and Ellsbury favor righty pitching and the park helps boost both of their multipliers.

Jason Heyward FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3100 DraftStreet 5561
Vogelsong. So, yeah.

Juan Lagares FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5474
Still hitting in Coors, batting leadoff and much better against lefties like Morales. I like Lagares as a cheap upside play.

Also consider: Jay Bruce and Torii Hunter

Remember! You can use our Baseball Lineup Construction Tool for free until mid-April. Please check it out and give us feedback!

You can also sign up for our mailing list by using the column in the sidebar (and you'll get a free eBook on setting Daily Fantasy Basketball lineups. The Baseball eBook is on its way). Our mailing list puts the picks in your inbox like a freshly baked pie.