Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/17/14
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Gio Gonzalez FanDuel 8400 DraftKings 10500 DraftStreet 20915
Gio's my favorite pitcher today for a couple of reason. First, he squares off against the Mets, who amassed just a .671 OPS against left handed pitching last year - tied for 3rd worst in the league. That's pretty much both reasons. Also, the Mets have one Bartolo Colon pitching, who has allowed 5.84 earned runs per 9 innings pitched, which in case you were unaware, is awfully terrible. Colon has definitely run poorly this year, and his peripherals point to a better skill set than this ERA, but the picture still isn't pretty.
Tim Lincecum FanDuel 7000 DraftKings 10200 DraftStreet 18787
Here's to hoping you picked up Timmay when we recommended him the last time around. In case you missed that recommendation, the reasons for Lincecum in this matchup are similar to the last time around. While the Marlins are no longer the doormat they were last year when it comes to hitting, they still prefer to square off against lefties, and Lincecum still has strikeout stuff. Throw in a nice home park and an opposing pitcher who is pitching WAY over his head (2.57 ERA with 30 Ks and 22 BBs in 49 innings? Bitch, please), and we love Lincecum once again.
Homer Bailey FanDuel 7900 DraftKings 8500 DraftStreet 14529
Bailey has run bad this year when it comes to ERA - he has a 3.53 xFIP that severely undercuts his 4.72 ERA. Even more compelling - he faces off against Cole Hamels and the struggling Phillies. While I like the above guys much better than Bailey, I have a feeling that Bailey is going to walk away a winner in this matchup, and that he'll produce plenty of value for his owners.
Also considered: Matt Garza
Jason Castro FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5408
Castro continues to do his thing - which is mash righties, and suck horribly against lefties. Good news - Hector Noesi is a righty with an ERA over 7 this year.
Brian McCann FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 6327
McCann looks for all the world like a player in decline - as his once impeccable batting eye is showing warts. The real story for McCann this year, though, is his extremely unlucky BABIP. McCann's .227 mark is 60 points below his career average, so the poor production is a lot more a sign of luck than anything else. Facing off against the right-hander Volquez in his home park, McCann should have a fine outing.
Mike Zunino FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5125
Zunino certainly prefers left handed pitching, but pitching of the quality of one Samuel Deduno might be enough to make up the difference, especially given that all of his compatriots prefer right handed pitching.
Also considered: Tyler Flowers.
Ryan Howard FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6073
While I like Bailey well enough today, I still think there's plenty of room for the Philly lefties to make it into the mix. At this stage in his career, Howard is certainly only playable against righties - but with a 121 wRC+ against righties, he's awfully playable against them. Throw in a nice ball park, and I think Howard is the top 1b play on the board.
Mark Teixeira FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 7869
I love Teixeira against Volquez today. He's looking like his vintage self, and he's hit righties terrifically this year. He's a close 1a for me - and you can definitely make a case for him as #1 given the fantastic home park.
Eric Hosmer FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5481
The power outage for Hosmer is certainly a concern, but even so, Hosmer has returned plenty of value against right handed pitching this year. The league average Bud Norris isn't scaring me.
Mark Reynolds FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 4130
You can't call him consistent, but Mark Reynolds is still great at the one thing he does - put the ball in the seats. If you're looking for an upside play, you can do a lot worse than a slugger like Reynolds in a park like Wrigley.
Jedd Gyorko FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5355
I get that Gyorko hasn't produced on the promise so far this year - but 3 of his last 5 hits have been homers, and he's headed into a great match-up with Jordan Lyles in Colorado. Lyles has a nice ERA, but he doesn't K anyone, and I think this will be the first game in a nice series for Jedd.
Jose Altuve FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 7030
Watch out! It's the Jose Altuve train! The tiny second baseman has been barreling the ball up like mad recently, bringing back images of his ridiculous minor league run. The Ks are down, the walks are up, and Noesi has been a mess. I'll be splitting things pretty evenly between Gyorko and Altuve, to be sure.
Neil Walker FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6766
There must be a righty on the mound, because here comes Neil Walker! And the particular righty he draws in this one has allowed more than half as many walks as he's racked up Ks. Love Walker against Phelps in Yankee Stadium.
Everth Cabrera FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 4157
I have a soft spot for the slap hitting Cabrera. The truth is, Cabrera can do his thing in any park and against most pitchers. The big edge he has in this one? The guys who will try to knock him in have a much friendlier place to hit. I love Cabrera to get on base, maybe cause some havoc on the basepaths, and score a run or two.
Elvis Andrus FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6221
While Andrus isn't a classic platoon split guy, he does see the ball considerably better against lefties, and has a 90 wRC+ against them as opposed to an 83 wRC+ against righties. I'm not buying Buehrle's ridiculously lucky year to date ERA, and you shouldn't be, either. I think Elvis and the Rangers knock him around, and Andrus has a big day.
Hanley Ramirez FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 7899
If you're looking for upside, look no further than Ramirez. Squaring off against the young right hander in Arizona could be a killer spot for him. He's been pretty similar against righties and lefties over the course of his career (with a slight edge against southpaws), but the real story is the park and the pitcher. While Anderson has had a nice year so far, the sample size is ridiculously small, and just last year he posted a 5.73 ERA and a 4.54 FIP in AAA.
Evan Longoria FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 5207
It's not a terrific day for 3B options, but Longoria leads a somewhat uninspiring group. What Longoria has going for him in this one is the platoon match-up. He has had a nearly 1:1 K-BB ratio against lefties this year, and one has to think that the power will be returning at some point. Anaheim isn't a great place to hit, but I think Longoria puts together a nice outing regardless.
Pablo Sandoval FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 4823
If our projection system had eyes, it'd be rolling them at Tom Koehler's early successes. Sandoval has mashed righties in his career - he's one of those rare reverse-platoon split guys - and Koehler is just the match-up the Big Panda is looking for. Don't get carried away by Pablo's poor YTD stats - his BABIP is running 70 points off his career levels.
Pedro Alvarez FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 7091
I might be asking for abuse on this one, but I just can't resist feast or famine Pedro against a mediocre righty in a park like Yankee Stadium.
Jacoby Ellsbury FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 7291
The system really loves the Yankees lefties today, and I do, too. Ellsbury sees the ball better against right handers, and displays quite a bit more pop against them as well (slugs 60 points better vs. righties). Volquez doesn't K guys like he used to, and I think Ellsbury will wreak havoc today, and get knocked in when he does reach base.
Coco Crisp FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 8007
Crisp hasn't been super flashy this year, but he's still getting the job done for fantasy owners. He's slightly better against righties over the course of his career, and I'm not trusting the smoke-and mirrors magic of Tomlin to keep him off the basepaths today.
George Springer FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 5538
The young phenom has wild upside, and while Noesi isn't as bad as his ERA would suggest, I'm loving the currently hot Springer to keep the magic going. All 3 of his homers have come since May 8th, and Noesi can give up the long ball.
Desmond Jennings FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 4859
Jennings has a career wRC+ of 126 vs. southpaws as opposed to a 100 wRC+ against right handers. While Anaheim isn't the best place to hit, and Wilson has been pretty good this year, Jennings should have a nice opportunity to run in this one. I like him quite a bit, and could have ranked him as high as 1st in this list.
Austin Jackson FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 5728
The poster boy of the reverse platoon split all-stars, Jackson has posted a career wRC+ twelve points higher against right handers than lefties. While Lackey has been good again this year, Boston is still a great place to hit, and Jackson has some big bats behind him that don't mind facing right handers.
Carl Crawford FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5656
Crawford is a sneaky platoon split guy - with a massive 33 points spread in his wRC+ between right handers and left handers. As I mentioned earlier, I'm not buying the Chase Anderson renaissance, and I think the Dodgers will put up numbers in the lovely Bank One hitters' park. I think Crawford will be at the center of all of it.
Chris Carter FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4800
That Astros stack, tho. Carter is a strike-out machine, but he's also capable of huge outbursts. The system really doesn't trust Noesi at all, and if he's having one of those days, Carter could hugely benefit. He's reached base in 8 of his last 10, so he's not quite as big a risk as you might think.
Also considered: Domonic Brown, Alex Gordon, Matt Holliday, Marcell Ozuna
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