Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/27/14

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Pitchers

Yu Darvish FanDuel 11000 DraftKings 11200 DraftStreet 26256
Among the elite pitchers in the game. That isn't in question. It only becomes a question of how much you are willing to pay. The price on DraftStreet, for me, is pretty much a non starter. I don't think you can allocate that percentage of your cap for a guy who isn't facing a bottom feeding offense. But everywhere else he's in play. The Twins have a 22% K% and are light hitting especially around the bottom of their order. Darvish strikes out nearly 10.5 per 9 and is actually walking less batters this season. Walking less guys and striking out a few less guys this year has led to some more hits. So his xFIP is a little higher than his ERA. But he's still a stud. (Update: Darvish is scratched tonight. Bump up Zack Greinke as the next stud in line after Sale.)

Chris Sale FanDuel 9400 DraftKings 11600 DraftStreet 23715
I really wish they struck out more, but even with the contact, the Indians rank 27th in the league in team wOBA against lefties. Their K% is low, which might limit Sale's ultimate upside. But they've been a weak hitting bunch in their lineups versus lefties. In his limited action this season, Sale has been nails. Striking out more than 10 per 9, keeping the BB's under 2 per 9 and rocking an xFIP in the mid 2's. He's a little worse than his 1.89 ERA, but not by any significant margin. The Babip is only .213, so some regression coming, but like Darvish this guy's an ace and the Tribe are weak.

Jon Lester FanDuel 8300 DraftKings 9800 DraftStreet 16174
The Braves are so weird. They rank first in the league against lefties in team wOBA with a .377 (this is a full .014 points higher than number two). But at the same time they rank dead last in strikeout percentage at 24.6%. Making Mr.Lester a GPP play if ever one existed. Lester is having his best season as a professional pitcher. His K's are through the roof, well outpacing his career averages. He's striking out almost two more batters per nine. That's a 20% jump. His xFIP is under three and honestly he's flown under some radars. Again, the Braves can put up runs. But they also go down swinging. A lot.

Wade Miley FanDuel 5800 DraftKings 5600 DraftStreet 13491
The Padres have been a little unlucky this season, sporting a .266 Babip as a team agaisnt lefties. Yes they've been bad, but it isn't all a matter of just outright sucking. The ball has bounced the wrong way a bunch. That being said, even with a Babip regression they'd rank near the bottom of the league. Miley's xFIP is a full run lower than his 4.85 ERA and he's priced like a dude whose ERA sucks. On two (or three) pitcher sites, Miley makes a solid low end option to round out a rotation.

Tim Hudson FanDuel 7000 DraftKings 8700 DraftStreet 14976
The Cubs are bad. Real bad. Take a look at some of the lineups they chuck out there on a give night. It's rough. Hudson's big boost is that he mitigates damage. His control is impeccable. It doesn't lead to many K's, but he doesn't walk anyone (less than one per nine!) and for his career has been effective at keeping the ball in the ballpark. Target bad teams with safe pitchers on sites that have more than one starter. A great guy to pair with a bigger salary stud.

Edinson Volquez FanDuel 5200 DraftKings 5800 DraftStreet 9840
Only even entertaining this because of opponent. The Mets are real bad, ranking near the bottom of the league in offense against righties. The ballpark helps Volquez as well, even if his own numbers are a bit (a lot) uninspiring.

 

Catchers

Jason Castro FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5009
Castro's biggest issue is the insanely high K rate. He strikes out way too much. But guess who's taking the mound today? One mister Jeremy Guthrie, a dude who this season is K-ing only 3.97 batters per nine. You won't see a number much lower than that from an actual major league pitcher. Guthrie also lets up the long ball. I love Castro today and will have him and his low price tags in a lot of spots.

Salvador Perez FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 3967
The only reason he isn't number one on the list tonight against a lefty is because Collin McHugh has been *gasp* real good. Dude is striking out batters in droves. You know Perez's splits heavily favor him facing lefties. But McHugh's success tempers that to some degree. (Correction: McHugh is a righty. Perez still higher in system, but spltis aren't as favorable)

Yasmani Grandal FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5490
He and Rivera split time so of course check to make sure he's the starter. Grandal is slightly better against righties and gets a boost from the ball park as Arizona's park factors have power increasing from that side of the plate. Grandal's been running horrible in Babip this season which has kept his OBP down. Of cours his K rate hasn't helped either. Still like him as a cheap option today.

Consider Russell Martin

 

First Basemen

Paul Goldschmidt FanDuel 4100 DraftKings 5200 DraftStreet 9924
Going to be tough choosing between Goldy and Papi today, but Goldschmidt gets the nod. We haven't put him our picks too much because the salary has often been a little too high. Not today. Goldschmidt is good against everyone, but slightly better against lefties over the last year. He's rocking a 157 wRC+ and .406 wOBA in that time period for that split. Those are obviously awesome and Eric Stults is trashy. Chase Field boosts power in every direction and you need some exposure to this guy today.

David Ortiz FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 5627
Ooh Big Papi. We've had success when putting him in our picks and I'm looking to keep that rolling today. Aaron Harang has been good this year in large part due to his increased K rate. But also because his HR/FB is significantly under his career averages. This should regress and let's hope it starts today against one of the premier hitters in the game.

Mark Reynolds FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6317
I want to have him in play when he faces guys without elevated strikeout rates. This could probably be said for everyone, but it's especially true for guys whose prices are depressed because of their own swing and miss tendencies. Wei-Yin Chen is a fine pitcher, but not a K guy. I'll take Reynolds on the slightly favorable platoon split.

Adrian Gonzalez FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 7556
Gonzo has some pretty big splits that favor him facing righties and here's the thing: Alfredo Simon sucks. Look right past that sub 3 ERA. It's smoke and funhouse mirrors. Dude K's less than six per nine and has an xFIP close to five than to three. There are a few lefty Dodgers I like tonight though Simon has been platoon neutrally shitty for his career.

 

Second Basemen

Daniel Murphy FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7120
Looking for a little bit of safety at second base tonight. I know I put Edinson Volquez in my pitcher picks (though admittedly he was kind of a throw in) but Murphy stands to put up some points tonight because he makes so much contact and Edinson isn't a big K guy. Murphy is one of those guys who's just kind of around. He doesn't hit for much power, steals some bags and puts the ball in play. Tonight, that's good enough.

Aaron Hill FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 5740
Hill has an .841 OPS against lefties over the last year with a 128 wRC+. He's a good, not great hitter that gets an extra bump when a lefty is on the *ahem* hill. I'm liking a number of different Snakes today and Hill pairs nicely with anyone (all) of them. His elevated K% is a bit troubling but you can roll him on the upside today.

Jedd Gyorko FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 3063
I'm going to point to this number again to illustrate something about perception of skill as compared to reality - .195 Babip. I know this stat isn't the be-all-end-all and that there are flaws in using it as a definitive metric on "luck". But Gyorko's number simply isn't sustainable. If you were ever looking to buy low on someone this is the time. He's so much better against lefties and there are hits coming.

Dustin Pedroia FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 5124
Like, don't love him today. But I'm not completely sold on Harang and Pedroia is at some advantageous prices.

 

Shortstops

Jordy Mercer FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 2800 DraftStreet 3295
Surprised to see his name atop this list? Don't be. This guy crushes lefties. Over his career (admittedly a small-ish sample) he's rocking a 181 wRC+. It's a little Babip-y but even factoring that in it's clear he prefers this side of the platoon split. Been awhile since the Bucko-s have faced a lefty. Get read to fire up a mini-stack on them, especially in the OF. Mercer is a great cheap option. (Update: Mercer isn't in the lineup tonight. Yunel Escobar also at punt prices is batting leadoff against the lefty Buehrle). 

Jean Segura FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5815
Is about 100 points better in his OPS over the last year against lefties. Chen isn't a rollover kind of pitcher but the Brewers have so many righty bats up and down that lineup that I think you need to have some exposure to them. Segura is one of those guys, hitting near the top of the lineup with the speed to raise his ceiling.

Everth Cabrera FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 4774
Like his teammate Jedd, Everth is way better against lefties. Unlike Jedd, Everth can't blame his issues on an abnormally low Babip. But I still will have him in some spots against Miley.

Consider Elvis Andrus

 

Third Basemen

Evan Longoria FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 4801
After a somewhat extended slump, he's picked it up over the last few games. The slump wouldn't bother me really. I kind of wish he hadn't broken out of it. Would make buying him tonight even better if others were soured on his recent performance. Longoria is one of the great lefty killers, carrying a 152 wRC+ and .922 OPS over the last year against southpaws. Mark Buehrle is a guy I really want to target as his xFIP is nearly two runs behind his ERA. He isn't good. Buy the Rays tonight at the discount.

Martin Prado FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5951
Striking out too much this season, but not against lefties. In 34 PAs this year Prado has only struck out 3 times against lefties. In fact, in looking at it, it appear Prado (and the Dbacks in general) have faced fewer than league average lefties. For a teams that's righty dominant, this could explain some of their early season troubles. I'm all over them tonight, Prado especially who is coming at punt prices.

David Wright FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 5885
Like him much more against lefties, but can stomach it tonight because the opponent is weak and Wright's salary is trending the wrong way.

 

Outfielders

One thing I'm doing here with the first couple of picks is pairing some OF's together. There are a couple of teammates who go nicely together because of the platoon splits.

Andrew McCutchen FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 5200 DraftStreet 8171
Starling Marte FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6977
Ooh baby, now we're talking. Feels like forever since the Bucko-s faced a lefty. Both of these guys bring more than 1K OPS's against lefties over the last year. They mash left-handers and Jon Niese is of no consequence when we are talking about that kind of platoon split. I'm loving both of them, McCutchen especially obviously. But Marte is coming cheaper as well.

Ryan Braun FanDuel 4300 DraftKings 5500 DraftStreet 7887
Khris Davis FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5332
Another couple of guys to get together. I've put so many Brewers up here tonight, but it's because their lineup is loaded with righty batters that feast off lefties. When one comes to town, it's worth sitting up and taking notice. Like the pair above, both of these guys OPS over 1K against lefties in the past year. They both have massive power and come at relative discounts with those considerations.

Desmond Jennings FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5081
Wil Myers FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 3846
Another duo that prefers seeing lefties. Jennings much more than Myers, but they both have success against that hand. As I said with Longo, Buehrle is nowhere near as good as his ERA would suggest. A Rays stack seems in order.

Carlos Quentin FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 7203
Going solo guys now, but Quentin falls in with some of the Pads I put above. He's actually pretty platoon neutral over the last year, good against both with OPS's in the mid 800's. his number one career issue has been health. Because when he's on the field good things happen. Until he gets hurt.

Alejandro De Aza FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4521
Recommended him yesterday and he had a nice game. He's been running bad and when the regression comes you still be buying super low off the early season bad luck.

Cody Ross FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3000 DraftStreet 6319
Has been horrible this season, but for his career is a lefty killer. Start at your own risk.

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