Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/28/14
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Clayton Kershaw FanDuel 10000 DraftKings 12600 DraftStreet 23644
Clayton Kershaw is somehow better than he was last year, sporting a 2.04 xFIP, a ridiculous 11 Ks per nine, and the same low walk rate. The guy is incredible, and he's facing a Cincinnati team that's quietly become an absolute doormat of an offense. With Votto out of the lineup, the punchless Reds are likely doomed in this one. Did I mention that LA is a great place to pitch? There's rarely an opportunity to make a pitching investment like this, especially on FanDuel.
C.J. Wilson FanDuel 8700 DraftKings 11400 DraftStreet 20669
Wilson draws the Mariners in the pitcher's paradise of Safeco field. Seattle has shown signs of life at the plate this year, but that's all against right handed pitching. Wilson has his way in this one, and finishes with the W and a good pile of Ks. You heard it here first!
Anibal Sanchez FanDuel 8200 DraftKings 8300 DraftStreet 17230
Sanchez has been a fine fantasy performer this year, and I believe the shine is coming off Scott Kazmir. Oakland has been a juggernaut on offense this year, but Oakland is still a nice place to pitch, and Sanchez is backed by a damned good offense of his own.
Tim Lincecum FanDuel 7100 DraftKings 10600 DraftStreet 18411
Lincecum is absolutely a wild card at this stage in his career, but his upside is as good as anyone not named Kershaw or Felix today, and at 70% the price. Chicago is a mediocre offense, and San Francisco eats up left handed hitters (Lincecum's one major weakness). It's not a safe play by any means, but he could absolutely equal the lines of the top priced guys today while freeing up money to take stud hitters.
Also considered: John Lackey
Yan Gomes FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5740
Gomes is a really weird player - a bat first catcher with nearly neutral platoon splits and a high BABIP. Weird doesn't mean bad, though - he's a heck of an asset for Cleveland, which is more than I can say for the pitcher tasked with getting him out in this one. Noesi has been a trainwreck this year, and while he won't finish the year with a 7 ERA, it might be close. He's got a low K%, a high BB%, and gives up bombs. Loving Gomes to be all over Noesi's weak stuff.
A.J. Pierzynski FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5649
AJ's in the league because of his ability to hit right handed pitching, and the system is guessing that Floyd's early season magic is a mirage. Fenway is a great place to hit, and Pierzynski can certainly still do that. High chances of a nice night.
Carlos Ruiz FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 4980
Chooch is truthfully having a fine season - he's walked more times than he's struck out, and he's facing a guy in Lyles who frequently finds himself overmatched in the big leagues. Ruiz actually benefits from facing a right hander because the rest of his lineup-mates are much better against them. Could be a nice counting-stat night for Ruiz.
David Ortiz FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 6906
Gavin Floyd has been suspiciously great in his first 25 IP this year, but the system and I aren't buying it. Papi is still somehow a monster, especially against right handers, and especially at home. Could be a huge night.
Justin Morneau FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 8166
He'll be a monster play tonight, and rightfully so. The Phillies seem to be fooled by likely Mummy Roberto Hernandez's respectable ERA, but the 38 Ks to 22 BBs are pretty much a joke, and Citizen's Bank is a great place to hit. It's no Coors, but Morneau and the Rocks are going to run Big Bert right off the mound.
Paul Konerko FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 2800 DraftStreet 5642
Konerko has been mostly terrible this year. But the system is like, "Dude, it's TJ House over there. He's a lefty who shouldn't even be in the majors. Konerko has to be able to hit HIM, especially in his awesome home park, right?" And I'm all, "I dunno, system, but I'll list him in the picks and let people decide for themselves." Going out on a limb here, obviously, but wanted to give you a good separation play. Guys listed below are all considerably safer plays.
Ian Kinsler FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 8504
Ian Kinsler has been seeing the ball as well as anyone in the game recently, and the system firmly believes that will continue against Kazmir and the As. Kinsler boasts a fantastic 139 wRC+ against left handed pitching (which is great for a 2B), and hits alongside a bunch of guys who enjoy the offerings of lefties as well. Oaktown is not an easy place to hit, but Kinsler and co. should be able to handle it.
Dustin Pedroia FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 6616
Pedroia has historically preferred lefties, but the system has such little faith in Gavin Floyd that I have to include him in this column. I prefer Kinsler by quite a bit, here, but Pedroia has always been a monster in Fenway, and I have faith that he'll produce for us today.
Jedd Gyorko FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 3786
Something weird is going on with Gyorko, that much seems obvious. That being said, the price is ridiculously low, and he's been coming around of late. Chase Anderson is no world beater, and Arizona is an awesome place to hit. Gyorko wouldn't have to do much at all to justify this price and then some.
Ian Desmond FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6208
Desmond has pretty much been on a tear in the last few weeks, and now he draws one Tom Koehler, who has been so lucky that it literally makes me sick. The 3.1 ERA flies in the face of the lousy peripherals, and Koehler is past-due for some regression. Desmond should be at the center of that if it happens tonight.
Asdrubal Cabrera FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5984
If you've got a pulse, the system likes you against Hector Noesi tonight. The switch hitting Cabrera doesn't hit any differently against righties or lefties: he only cares if they suck. And Noesi does just that. Great hitters' park, too. All in all, a great match-up.
Elvis Andrus FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6933
One of the Texas guys who won't care about going away from home, Andrus' game plays the same basically everywhere. Try to get on base, and if you, try to steal. Kyle Gibson is one of the worst of the worst, sporting a 25K:20BB ratio so far this season. Andrus is in a great spot to do what he does best: get on base, steal bases, and score runs.
Also considered: Everth Cabrera
Trevor Plouffe FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5900
Signs of life for Plouffe, who has 2 homers in the last week. Enter Joe Saunders, a left hander who was never very good, and who is REALLY not good now, and mix him with the Rangers' home park, and you can easily picture Plouffe being the top producing 3B on the board today, not even taking into account his reasonable salary.
Evan Longoria FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6262
The system is trying to communicate one thing, here: Liam Hendriks should not be a starter in the major leagues. Lonngoria has had his struggles this year to be sure, but he seems to be seeing the ball a lot better in the last week or so, and Hendriks is a prime candidate to help Longoria on the way to a breakout game.
Pedro Alvarez FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5329
Alvarez's name still has to be mentioned when facing a right hander. It's actually been kind of a crime, this year. Alvarez's walks are up and his Ks are WAY down, but his overall line looks about the same due to some horrible BABIP luck. He's about .70 points below his career norms. Could be a great game for him against Colon, who lives in the strike zone.
Matt Joyce FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5774
I'll be enthusiastically employing Joyce in every format tonight against the woeful Hendriks, and expecting great returns. The 130 wRC+ against right handers for his career hasn't totally come into fruition this year, but I'll take the increased OBP for the decrease in SLG for the safety it brings. Great opportunity here.
Shin-Soo Choo FanDuel 4000 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 8997
Choo will be the largest OF start in the industry today, and I could have (and probably should have) listed him first. Just wanted to make sure you got the message on Joyce, first! Choo feasts on right handed pitchers - even good ones - and Mr. Kyle Gibson is most certainly not that. This is an archetypal mismatch, and I have trouble picturing Gibson recording a single out against him.
Carlos Gonzalez FanDuel 4300 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 8629
Gonzalez is back from his finger injury, and should be in pole position to murder the offerings of one Roberto Hernandez if the foul ball off the leg last night doesn't keep him out. Gonzo has been running badly in terms of BABIP this year (50 points off his career levels), and while Philly is no Coors, it's a fine place to hit. Could be a monster night - and he's not priced like the superstar he is right now.
Wil Myers FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4411
It's not been an inspiring sophmore campaign for Myers, who was everybody's darling not 8 months ago. All that said, he's a reverse-platoon split guy so far in his early career, and it sure looks like he's running bad in terms of BABIP so far this year. Hendriks is not a major league starting pitcher, and I think Myers could have a nice game tonight.
Torii Hunter FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 6371
Hunter has taken a step back this year, but he's still been phenomenal against lefties. Kazmir is fine and all, but it's a nice spot to employ the reasonably priced Hunter.
Jacoby Ellsbury FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6077
As talented as he is, Shelby Miller has been a real smoke and mirrors story this year. The 45 Ks against fully 30 walks is simply terrible, and Miller is bound to go pumpkin on us pretty soon, here. Ellsbury has been swinging the bat well, and still has the historic speed. Loving him here.
Curtis Granderson FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5685
I believe the league is close to figuring out Charlie Morton - and the Grandy man has been looking more like himself recently - drawing walks and hitting for extra base hits, if not homers. Listing him toward the end here to raise your awareness: could be a nice game for him.
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