Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

06/02/2014
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 6/2/14

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Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw FanDuel 10000 DraftKings 12600 DraftStreet 24947
On a short night, I wouldn't recommend fading Kershaw. There's a solid case for King Felix, mostly because the Yankees are a struggling offense without Tex or Beltran, but Kershaw is where I'm spending my money tonight. He faces the White Sox who strike out almost 24% of the time against lefties and rank in the bottom half of the league in wOBA. And remember, some of those numbers are buoyed by Jose Abreu who's out right now. They are a garbage-y offense and Kershaw is awesome. Dude is striking out close to 12 per 9! You won't see too many exclamation points here, so enjoy it. Hope and pray that others will be thrown off by the 3.57 ERA. His xFIP is much more in line with his peripherals and balla-ness at 1.94. The truth is somewhere in the middle, but I'd put it much closer to the latter. He's the stud to pony up for today.

Matt Garza FanDuel 6500 DraftKings 8400 DraftStreet 16102
Pitching is a little weird after the two big horses. If you are playing on multi-pitcher sites you most likely won't be able to afford both Felix and Kershaw. At least not on such a short night where the options for bats are limited. Garza isn't a guy I would really consider on a full slate but tonight I'll take his mid-range salary and ability to strike some guys out. The Twins are a little better than average against righties, but have a K rate of about 22%. It's that last consideration that tips the scale towards Garza. Again, he's about league average, but the other options out there either have bad matchups or are bad themselves.

Jose Quintana FanDuel 6100 DraftKings 7000 DraftStreet 15287
If you watched Francisco Liriano operate against the Dodgers the other night (on our rec) you are aware LA ha serious lefty issues. They rank second to last in the league in wOBA against southpaws. Only the Reds come in below them. The Dodgers strike out 24% of the time against lefties and some of their guys have extreme splits that should probably dictate them never stepping into a batter's box against this hand. Quintana is a solid pitcher, xFIP in the low threes with a 3:1 K:BB rate. I'll take that all day long against the Dodgers. If he can get through Puig, Hanley and VanSlyke he's home free.

 

Catchers

Yadier Molina FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6566
By far the safest catching option today and you won't have to break the bank to get him. Molina is pretty platoon neutral with a slight edge towards facing a lefty. Danny Duffy is pretty bad. A guy who walks the ballpark and has limited strikeout stuff. Molina's been fine this year, OPS'ing around .800 without doing anything too spectacular. He will be a pretty high percentage play today, especially in cash games where his salary can fit most scenarios.

Yadier Molina FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6566
After Yadi, this group starts looking real weird. Which is even more reason I think Molina will be a big play. The names underneath him are all looking pretty gross. I'm going to go with the lefty against Masterson. He doesn't rate real high in our system, but I'm going with the splits on both sides.

 

First Basemen

David Ortiz FanDuel 4000 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7876
Justin Masterson has a fatal flaw and it has to do with lefties. He gets waxed by them. This season alone he's allowed a .402 wOBA to that side of the plate. That's a horrendous number for a starter. Righties can't touch him, which is what keeps him around. But lefties? They get theirs. Ortiz is the top power play today because of the matchup. Such a great spot for a guy who's tough to get out against a dude who can't get lefties out.

Eric Hosmer FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 4957
Hosmer should be on your radar against Shelby Miller. Hosmer's power appears gone, but a 1.6% Hr/FB rate will do that. This number has to regress some even if there are other issues. Today is just the day for it to happen against Miller who appears broken in some way. Dude is simply not the pitcher he was earlier last season. He's not striking anyone out and getting rocked here and there. Hosmer comes in around punt prices which can help in getting those power arms in your rotation.

Consider Mark Reynolds

 

Second Basemen

Daniel Murphy FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7452
Price is kind of up there for a guy who doesn't hit many home runs. It's always tough to pay for contact hitters without much power because a lot of other stuff needs to go right for them to pay. That being said, Murphy should have his bat on the ball today, or at least be on base. He's a tough guy to K and Roberto Hernandez has a BB/9 climbing toward five. Murphy seems safe-ish to at least put up points, but his upside is limited without the home runs.

Scooter Gennett FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 5204
Had him in consideration yesterday and he delivered. Gennett's nothing to write home about, but he's a lefty coming real cheap against Kyle Gibson and his no strikeout ways. Gennett is only in play against righties and beyond that, only in consideration when playing bad righties. This can be said for most hitters of course, but is especially true for guys with his skill set.

Consider Chase Utley

 

Shortstops

Jean Segura FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6244
Another guy we are getting in there against Gibson. Segura is worse against righties, but not crazy worse. Segura, hitting at the top of this lineup, doesn't strike out a ton. But he doesn't walk either. Like ever. Because Gibson struggles to put guys away, I think Segura is a favorite to at least have the ball in play.

Yunel Escobar FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4256
Sean Rodriguez FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 7019
I wouldn't touch Sean Rod on DraftStreet where he's much too expensive. But in other spots these guys offer nice cheap options against a crappy lefty Randy Wolf. Both guys own solid splits against lefties, Rodriguez especially. Because the shortstop situation is always fraught with peril, I think going the cheapest possible route is a fine strategy today.

Consider Hanley Ramirez but he's pricey and Quintana is decent.

 

Third Basemen

Evan Longoria FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6152
If you are saving money in some other positions and want to splurge on a bat, here is one place to go. Longoria, as we all know, is awesome against lefties. Longoria OPS's about .150 points higher against southpaws over the last year. Randy Wolf is the definition of mediocrity. His career xFIP is in the mid-4's and that's where it will probably stay. Longoria is one of the top offensive options today because of his advantageous platoon splits and facing a blah pitcher.

Kyle Seager FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 7381
I'd much rather spend on Longo, but Seager makes a nice second fiddle. He's just kind of a guy. Hits for a little power. Will chuck in a stolen base every once in a while. Takes a walk. He does little bits of everything (including strike out a little too much) that helps boost his value across the board (except for the K's). He makes a solid play against Phelps in Yankee Stadium where power to right field gets a boost.

Consider Chase Headley

 

Outfielders

Ryan Braun FanDuel 4600 DraftKings 5700 DraftStreet 8953
Not the top option from a points/$ standpoint, but from raw expectation, he's our system's number one guy. This is what happens when you play a crappy pitcher in a hitter's ballpark. One of the best hitters in the majors stands to make noise. Braun's been on a mini-crushing tour of late. And while I don't factor that in as anything more than a nice thing to hear, he should be considered your top points bat if you can fit the salary.

Desmond Jennings FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6506
I really love getting him in against lefties and you should too. Jennings has an OPS .140 points higher against lefties over the last year. He hasn't been his usual self this season, but some of that is because of a Babip against southpaws about thirty points below his career average. Even with the run bad he's got a 116 wRC+ against lefties this season. Makes a great play against Randy Wolf.

Matt Holliday FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 6518
Holliday is actually platoon neutral over his career with a slight nod towards hitting against righties. That being said, Danny Duffy is trash. Holliday's biggest problem this year is the power. His Hr/FB rate sits at 5% down from a career average closer to 16%. Some of that could be attributed to age, but I'd be surprised if he fell off a cliff so steeply in that regard. I think you'll see some (though not a full) regression to the mean. Meaning there are some homers left in that bat.

Domonic Brown FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 3964
It's worth noting that part of Brown's (immense) issues this season come from a Babip around 60 points below his career average. That is in large part due to a spike in his GB%, a number that I believe stabilizes by now. So there are some concerns for sure. He might be dealing with a mechanical flaw, or worse, an injury. There are also some problems with his batted ball distance. But the prices are low today against Bartolo and I think you can fire him off in some spots basically as a punt play.

Curtis Granderson FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 4933
Should be aided by playing in Philadelphia, a hitter's park that boosts power to right field. Roberto Hernandez has been a bit better than advertised, but Grandy-man is another guy coming cheap on the right side of the split.

Consider Allen Craig, Alex Gordon, Yasiel Puig and Scott Van Slyke

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