Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 6/6/14

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Pitchers

Cole Hamels FanDuel 8400 DraftKings 8900 DraftStreet 16820
Feels like Hamels is an incredible deal across the industry tomorrow and he will be in cash games for me throughout. The price is advantageous considering he's facing the Reds, a team that slips in the wOBA against lefties rankings each day. Bumgarner shut them down yesterday. It stands to reason Hamels will do the same today. They weren't a good team with Votto, and they are really bad without him. Every minute that Brandon Phillips remains as a top four hitter in their lineups, you can feel safe with many pitchers against them. They stink, striking out almost 24% of the time. Hamels has been solid this season with a 3.58 xFIP and striking out a batter an inning. For the money, this is the top pitching play of the day.

Dallas Keuchel FanDuel 7700 DraftKings 9900 DraftStreet 20799
On DraftStreet and DraftKings the price has corrected, making playing him there a bit of a stretch. But on FanDuel he is coming at a nice discount. He isn't out of play on the other sites, it's just much closer. He's been awesome this season rocking a 2.77 xFIP to go along with super solid peripherals like a 4:1 K:BB ratio. The Twins come in near the bottom of the league against lefties and, like the Reds, strike out nearly 24% of the time. On FanDuel, Keuchel is the only way I'd pivot away from Hamels. Where Hamels is cheaper, he's the clear play.

Brandon McCarthy FanDuel 5700 DraftKings 6700 DraftStreet 13995
It isn't often that "Brandon McCarthy" and "upside" are mentioned in the same sentence, but there you have. Our shit is groundbreaking. McCarthy has seen a bump in K's this year, almost two per nine more than his career averages. I'm always a little wary of this kind of spike, but it's there nonetheless. Good news for you is that his ERA of 5.20 is way off his 2.86 xFIP. This is an insane gap. The truth probably lies somewhere in between. But he's your hidden gem for today. The Braves are bad against righties this year and strike out a ton. Others will see McCarthy's low tag and high ERA and stay away. You should play him.

Jon Niese FanDuel 6700 DraftKings 7800 DraftStreet 15332
This one doesn't feel great. But if you are looking for a guy who probably won't get bombed, throwing in a pitcher's park against a team that ranks in the middle of the pack against lefties, then this is your spot. Niese is fine, unspectacular, but far from bad. The Giants are just kind of there. Niese strikes me as a solid play on multi-pitcher sites in cash games.

Kyle Lohse FanDuel 7000
Is overpriced everywhere else, but on FanDuel he makes an interesting GPP play against the Cubs who rank dead last in the league versus righties. On the other sites, this fact is priced into Lohse's salary. But not on FanDuel. (Note: I made an error. Lohse faces the Buckos today who aren't as bad as Cubs. Our system still rates Lohse as a solid value. But he isn't facing a bottom feeder. Hat tip to MKEdeputy for the catch)

 

Catchers

Brian McCann FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 6409
I will continue to recommend him. I don't care. His Babip is still sixty points under his career averages and the Hr/FB rate is just a tad low. I am convinced the bat is going to come around. Oh and Jeremy Guthrie really sucks. Like, real bad. His xFIP is close to 5 and he strikes out less than five guys per nine. Wish they were playing in Yankee Stadium, but hey we can't have everything we want can we?

Derek Norris FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 6968
Over the last season plus Norris has a 998 OPS against lefties. That is grouped with a bunch of other players with last names like Trout, Braun and Stanton. He simply destroys lefty pitching and needs to be in the discussion any time a southpaw is on the mound. Today its Wei-Yin Chen in CAmden Yards, a park that boosts power to all sides of the plate. Norris's price has is still really sweet in some spots, especially FanDuel.

Buster Posey FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6677
Our system doesn't love Posey as much as I thought it would against the lefty Niese. Posey is better against lefties for sure, but he's a good hitter all around. When this happens, the price is already reflective of a somewhat even split. This means he doesn't get a crazy bump when a lefty is on the hill. Still a strong play as his wOBA against lefties is around .140. He also is real tough to strike out so on sites like DraftStreet you mitigate the chance of a negative.

Consider Yadier Molina

 

First Basemen

Adrian Gonzalez FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 7636
Not a huge fan of this position today from a value standpoint. There are some good-not-great plays out there. Gonzalez makes an interesting play against Butler in Coors. With the Rockies rookie being a relative unknown it's hard to project out for a lot of the Dodgers. But they all get the Mile High bump. After an early season power surge Gonzalez has seen the lights go out (like what I did there?). If there was a series to get that part of his baseball card moving again, it's this one.

Mark Teixeira FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6929
Teixeira does stand out as a one of the top end for-the-dollar guys at the position. Partly because Guthrie is trash so even with Tex's worse platoon split here, he still gets a bump because of opponent. Also, and our system only indirectly accounts for this, but the Yankees should put up runs. You will see a lot of them on the picks today.

Albert Pujols FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 7322
You can for sure stack some Angels today. Pujols, over the last year, has actually been better against righties. Against garbage righties? Even better. Rienzo sucks. Pujols has seen a price dip of late and you can take advantage today.

Consider Adam Lind and Freddie Freeman

 

Second Basemen

Dustin Pedroia FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7541
Dustin does most of his damage against lefties. We all know this. This year he's been struggling a bit which has me wondering if there are still lingering issues with a wrist injury. That saps power something fierce. The home runs just aren't there for him at all, which is a bit troubling. Even so, he's incredibly difficult to K when facing lefties and has a 12 wRC+ against them this season. He still does damage. Facing Smyly shouldn't slow him down too much, espcially because Drew is prone to the BB. This is a solid spot for Pedroia.

Howie Kendrick FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 5709
Kendrick's splits aren't crazy disproportionate meaning you can play him against righties. You can especially play him against righties like Andre Rienzo who walk the ballpark and are well below average. Though the Angels don't have a ton of lefty bats, there are some righties you can throw in the mix. Kendrick is one of them. He's above average against righty pitching and is coming at cheaper prices against a guy with an xFIP close to five.

Ben Zobrist FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5222
Zobrist has been bad. Chris Young is worse. BZ's platoon splits favor him facing righties. And while he isn't exactly lighting the world on fire, Chris Young is a car crash of a pitcher, rocking an xFIP of 5.74. Won't see that stat get much higher from a guy with a steady major league gig. The mid threes ERA is infuriating especially if you keep stacking against him. I'm doing it tonight in some spots. Zobrist will be there.

Consider Kolten Wong

 

Shortstops

Hanley Ramirez FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 5400 DraftStreet 9012
On FanDuel Hanley will be a monster % start. He is below 4K and that's a sticker price that'll catch people's eyes (or eye, don't want to discriminate against those with only one) even if he wasn't playing in Coors. Which he is. Our system has him as the highest scoring SS, even ahead of Tulo. The big difference is the opponent. This decision is a little closer on DK and DS because the price has corrected extremely. On FD, it is almost a mistake. You basically need to start him there even with Butler being a decent arm.

Elvis Andrus FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 6649
Andrus will face Trevor Bauer, a guy heavy on the K's, big on the walks and according to his rSB, bad at keeping runners from stealing. It's that latter stat I'm looking for to help boost a little value for Andrus today. His one skill is speed. Facing a pitcher who has trouble in that department is the edge we are looking for at a weak position.

Jose Reyes FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7622
Not a terrible play, but with so many bad pitchers going today, I am really not looking to slot guys in facing anyone above average. I would count Lance Lynn as above average. That being said, Reyes is a fine value here being significantly better against righties with an OPS more than 100 points higher on that side of the split.

Consider Erick Aybar

 

Third Basemen

Matt Carpenter FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6438
Carpenter just collects a ton of hits. The problem is that most of them are singles. Which is why you see his OBP and SLG right in line with each other. The former is real high keeping the OPS at an acceptable level. But Carpenter's ISO is half of what it was last season. But I like him today because the price is in the moderate range against Stroman, a relative unknown. Carpenter remains safe because of the OBP numbers. This position is weak today.

Adrian Beltre FanDuel 4200 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 7429
Joins his Ranger brethren in being a solid pick against Bauer, even with the opposite side of the platoon split. Beltre hits lefties better, but the splits aren't extreme. He's got an .860 OPS over the last two seasons against righties with a 131 wRC+. Totally acceptable today.

Josh Donaldson FanDuel 4800 DraftKings 5500 DraftStreet 10259
The price, in my opinion, is way out bounds. But I wouldn't be doing my job if I didn't make the requisite "Donaldson v lefties" argument. And yes he is good. But I don't think it's worth paying the enormous tag.

 

Outfielders

Mike Trout FanDuel 5000 DraftKings 5600 DraftStreet 8791
One of the best hitters in the game against a shit pitcher? You got it. Fun stat: over this year and last Trout has the exact same OPS against righties and lefties at .972 which is amazing for both the skill and the coincidence. If you are honing in on offenses against bad arms, start looking Trout's way. The Angels could put up some runs tonight. Throw Kole Calhoun in with him if he is hitting leadoff again.

Shin-Soo Choo FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6705
As you can see our system hasn't really bought in on Trevor Bauer. Choo is a guy who gets over on righties and I just have very little faith that Bauer keeps up this K rate. Choo should be able to take advantage of Bauer's walk rate. But there is some downside here if Bauer's K's are for real. The Rangers are worse without Fielder in theory, but Choo hitting leadoff with his crazy high 15% walk rate can keep him in the discussion even through slumps.

Jacoby Ellsbury FanDuel 4100 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 6299
Jacoby Ellsbury FanDuel 4100 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 6299
Carlos Beltran FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 6925
I like putting these guys together with some of the other Yankee bats today. All hit better against righties. And while it's always weird to pick up a guy on is way back from injury (Beltran), that's how bad Jeremy Guthrie is. The the three of them hitting at or near the top of the order is the way to stack it up today. Man, so many Yankees are in the discussion that I'm not sure I can handle it, as a Red Sox fan that is. But DFS shows no allegiance. Stack pinstripes.

Austin Jackson FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 4754
Alejandro De Aza FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 3268
These are two punt play guys I'll be taking a look at tonight. Both are coming in near the minimum and both are running incredibly bad with their Babips this season. If you are rounding a lineup, trying to get some bigger tags in and need some salary relief these guys offer flexibility.

Consider Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier,  Matt Holliday

 

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