Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftStreet for 6/23/14
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Felix Hernandez FanDuel 11200 DraftKings 12500 DraftStreet 23956
Oh my goodness has King Felix been good this season. The strikeout numbers continue on a positive trend and he just doesn't walk anyone. The latter allows him to go late in games. He's gone 7+ innings in his last six starts and two of those he's gone into the ninth. This kind of efficiency helps in raising his already high basement. And the K numbers keep the ceiling up there. Gets banged a little today because he's not a huge favorite against the Sox with Lackey on the mound and Seattle being shitty hitters and all. But the Red Sox aren't much better. They rank 21st in the league in OPS against righties and strikeout more than 21% of the time. You'll have to pay big for King Felix today but there are plenty of discount bats with great splits that help you get there.
Gio Gonzalez FanDuel 8200 DraftKings 10200 DraftStreet 15464
In his first game back after a run on the disabled list Gio was pedestrian. This is nothing more than a GPP upside play for me today. Gonzalez has big time strikeout stuff with a K/9 in the mid 9's this year even accounting for a terrible run prior to the DL. And the Brewers, already below average against lefties (amazing considering they are all righties) will probably be without Braun today. The Brew Crew K more than 23% of the time. This is a high upside spot for Gio, but buyer beware. He has some batting practice in him.
Alex Cobb FanDuel 7600 DraftKings 8700 DraftStreet 16332
This is a tough pick because the Pirates are actually good against righties, but with so few quality mid-tier pitching options going today I think you can risk the opponent on the idea that Cobb is a control guy with strike out stuff throwing in one of the best pitcher's parks in all of baseball. His xFIP sits in the low 3's and he's sporting nearly identical stats to last year. Would definitely roll him in cash games if I was looking to save some money as I doubt he gets rocked.
John Lackey FanDuel 8700 DraftKings 9400 DraftStreet 17424
Our system isn't a huge fan and it's a bit difficult to figure out why. Lackey's been a control freak this year with a 4.5:1 K:BB rate to accompany a 3.14 xFIP. He faces the Mariners who can stack lefties down the lineup, though those lefties stink so it doesn't effect Lackey too much.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 4521
This guy's be an absolute K machine lately. Been getting mowed down. So that isn't great. But today he faces Roberto Hernandez who doesn't strike out more than seven batters per nine and just walks the ballpark. He's coming in at punt prices and is playing in Philly, one of the best parks in all of baseball for left-handed power. Have to be willing to take the downside of him dropping more than a K on you, but there is upside at these prices if his home run expectation goes way up in this game.
Brian McCann FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 6212
Fuck it. I've recommended him every other day. Why should this one be any different? But in all seriousness, he's still buy low. I refuse to believe this is anything but bad luck and an extended slump. It happens in baseball all of the time. And it's great to recognize in DFS when we are buying guys at their low points. It's how we extract the most value on a given day. That being said, I'm not looking for the "broke watch is right two times a day" strategy in picking him until it turns around. But I am willing to ride out a bad stretch because there are moderate gains coming.
Adrian Gonzalez FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6998
Would like this a hell of a lot better if I knew he stood the chance to hit at least one more home run this year. Might be a struggle. KC isn't a place lefties generate a lot of pop. But Guthrie is on the bad side and Gonzalez should be able to make contact today. That latter piece is especially helpful to know because it lowers his expected K's (his biggest flaw this year).
Anthony Rizzo FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7592
Alfredo Simon is not good and you shouldn't be fooled by his low-3 ERA. The xFIP sits in the 4's. Rizzo has been an elite hitter this season with a fantastic walk rate that hovers around his K rate. Not many hitters in the league can make this claim. Wrigley Field is neutral in power for lefties while Simon is a little dong prone. Good spot to play Rizzo here with the salaries remaining affordable across the board.
Dee Gordon FanDuel 4100 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7122
Gordon has so many things going for him today. He faces a well-below average righty in Jeremy Guthrie who K's less that 5.5 batters per nine. Gordon is significantly better at getting on base against righties with an OBP close to 50 points higher against that hand. Plus hitting at the top of the lineup (everyday) places him squarely in the driver's seat in what should be a run scoring affair on the part of the Dodgers.
Chase Utley FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6367
After a good start Nathan Eovaldi has turned into the pumpkin we knew him to be. He's no longer generating swing and miss stuff and has been rocked his last two outings. Today won't help the cause coming into Philly, a great park for lefty power. Utley, is a top play in just raw points for a second baseman and his salary won't break the bank. I love his chances of getting on base and grabbing an extra base hit against an increasingly weak pitcher.
Strongly consider Ben Zobrist
Jimmy Rollins FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6583
Wrote about J-Roll yesterday and he did me dirty with an 0-4. But I don't hold grudges. I accept these kind of days, move on and I like him again today. Eovaldi, as I said in Utley's write up is a pitcher headed in the wrong direction while it's all systems go for Rollins. He's hitting for power, stealing bases and just generally being a serviceable major league shortstop, something we couldn't have said 12 months ago. Makes a top play again and is a sick deal on FanDuel.
Jose Reyes FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 8022
For the money I much prefer Rollins but Reyes makes an interesting play against Chase Whitley. Reyes has been a frustrating guy this year, fluctuating between high level shortstop and guy who makes you want to blow your brains out. That's range baby! Whitley has shown excellent command this year in walking less than a batter per nine striking out about six per nine. But his Hr/FB is due for a regression and the xFIP is close to 4. I like Reyes and the Jays to put up some runs today and Jose has the splits in his favor.
Strongly consider Hanley Ramirez
Matt Carpenter FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 6251
Getting the old Coors bump today. Though, not many Cards are going to show up on this list mostly because they aren't a very good team. That being said, Carpenter stands to have some success here. As a gap hitter (though those are mostly singles this season) the Mile High air could aid in his ISO numbers. Chacin isn't a great pitcher and Carpenter, a quasi-shell of what made him special last season, still should be able to pay off considering the boost he's getting from the ballpark.
Aramis Ramirez FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 6774
I'm not typically in the habit of recommending hitters after I already recommended the pitcher, but we can make an exception here and there especially as a weak position. Aramis is significantly better against lefties with an OPS close to .900 against that hand over the last year. His 142 wRC+ over that stretch is worth taking a look at and we know Gio has some blow up potential in him.
Consider Evan Longoria
Braun and Bautista were both going to rate out as decent plays but both look like they'll be out today. We are going to value hunt here.
Jacoby Ellsbury FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7131
Last time Stroman faced the Yankees he didn't make it through four innings. I know this is the smallest of sample sizes but the Yankees are a tough team to strike out and can grind down pitchers. I see that happening again today and Ellsbury taking advantage. He remains a bargain for his skill set and should be able to take advantage of Stroman as he operates around the strike zone. Doesn't get a huge bump from the BB expectation, but his price dictates a buy, especially in cash games where the stolen base threat raises the floor considerably.
Dayan Viciedo FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4746
For his career he's been much better against lefties and this season is not different. His 108 wRC+ against them is above league average while his HR/FB is much lower than his career marks and could be due for some regression. Baltimore is one of the best parks in all of baseball for righty power and Wei-Yin Chen is an average lefty. Viciedo in the lower salary tier and really helps get some other bigger bats or a big arm in there today.
Andre Ethier FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4612
Ethier is much in the Viciedo vein in that you can only consider him against righties. He's been pretty Plain Jane this season but that's counteracted by Jeremy Guthrie being worse than plain: just bad. Ethier needs to take walks or go yard to hit his projected points. Two struggles in his game this season. But that's why we face the bad pitchers. To juice those stats just a bit.
Allen Craig FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 5902
Matt Holliday FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 7208
Contractually obligated to mention both of these guys because they are taking their cuts in Coors today.
Consider Domonic Brown and Colby Rasmus
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