Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftStreet for 6/29/14
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General guidance today:
It's not much of a day for elite pitching. Both Felix Hernandez and Clayton Kershaw are priced through the roof, and neither has a particularly great match-up. The Indians are 9th in the majors in wOBA and are a heck of a tough strike out. That's why, if I AM paying big, I will be going with Kershaw. The Cardinals rank just 24th in the majors in wOBA, and LA is a great place to pitch. The problem there? The Cardinals are one of the toughest teams in the league to strike out, at 18.2%. Me? I'm going a little bit cheaper. Keep reading.
Homer Bailey FanDuel 8000 DraftKings 8400 DraftStreet 14365
Tim Hudson FanDuel 7600 DraftKings 8500 DraftStreet 15669
The case for Bailey - The Giants strike out 7th most in the majors, and they're in the bottom half of the league in wOBA. The case against Bailey - the ERA isn't there this season, and he's facing off against Tim Hudson. The case for Hudson is that he's facing the Reds, who are 21st in the majors in wOBA, and they strike out a decent amount as well. I think Bailey has more upside, but Hudson seems very safe. I think you can play either here, oddly.
Drew Smyly FanDuel 6900 DraftKings 7300 DraftStreet 13369
Not the sexiest pick, but you can really save by going with Smyly, and there's a lot to like for him in this match-up. Houston leads the majors in striking out, and they're trotting out Scott Feldman, presumably in an effort to continue to throw the season. This could easily be a big game for the under-priced Smyly.
Also considered: Alex Cobb, Aaron Harang
Evan Gattis FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 7263
I'm not sure about you, but I am starting to feel a little awkward about the whole Evan Gattis thing. I've always been a non-believer, but here he is with his .900 OPS that sure as hell looks legit. While he prefers left handers, he still boasts a 118 wRC+ against righties, and David Buchanan has done nothing in his brief major league stint to scare me away from the highest upside catcher going.
Mike Zunino FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 5021
Seattle's young catcher has been on an absolute tear recently, justifying us going back to the well on him week after week even while he wasn't producing. With 4 home runs since June 20th, you've got to be keeping a serious eye on Zunino, especially when he's facing weak left handers like House.
Brian McCann FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5624
Lackey is looking very good this year, but he can still allow a ball in the air, and our projection system is still loving Brian McCann. It's not a vintage season for the Yankees catcher or anything, but he is still capable of putting up serious numbers, especially in parks like Yankee stadium which favor left handed fly ball hitters. Serious upside here, especially given how he's priced.
A.J. Pierzynski FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4158
If you're hesitant on Pierzynski, I get it. But after reading an article on FanGraphs on trusting the projections I'm trusting our projection system on this one. Pierzynski is still a more than capable hitter against right handed pitching, and I'm not crowning Chase Whitley just yet. The park is nice for lefties as well - I'm buying, especially at these prices.
Mark Reynolds FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6435
I positively love Reynolds today - Jorge De La Rosa has lost his strike-out stuff (just 63 Ks in 87 IP), and he is wild as well. He is no stranger to giving up the long ball, and Reynolds sort of makes his living in cases like that. Huge upside here.
Freddie Freeman FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7650
Same story for Freeman today as yesterday - he mashes right handers, and the guys Philly are trotting out seem to be getting worse as the nights go by. Philly remains a great place to hit. What are you waiting for?
Joe Mauer FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6235
You couldn't call Mauer a huge upside play, but I wanted to give him a nod here in case you are looking for a great double-up specific play. Mauer in Texas is nearly a sure thing - there will be lots of hard contact here, and it's hard to imagine Lewis making it out of a game against anyone in Texas at this point in his career.
Neil Walker FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 4225
At a position where there is little upside, Neil Walker stands out as an exception. He remains very affordable at these low prices, and he boasts a 123 wRC+ for his career. Colon's pitch-to-contact style suits Walker's approach well, and he could be in line for a nice game here.
Dustin Pedroia FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6681
It's not a huge upside play, but Pedroia can definitely put up counting stats against below average pitchers. He should be on base, and the big bats around him could drive him home more than once, especially in this fine hitter's park.
Daniel Murphy FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6442
Murphy is more reliable than explosive, but if there is a game where he could explode, this would be it. Murphy has recorded a very solid 2.7 Fantasy points per game (on FanDuel), and Edinson Volquez has been horrific this year, with a worse than 2:1 K:BB ratio.
Jimmy Rollins FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6082
Given that Jimmy Rollins is one of my least favorite players, you might not expect me to beat the Jimmy Rollins drum so often. But here I am. Our projection system is learning to like Aaron Harang, but it doesn't love him, and Philly is a tough pitch to place for anyone. This iteration of Rollins is still capable of putting up a huge game in a number of different ways, so I'll be rolling him out when the money works.
Jed Lowrie FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5103
It's a great day to be an A who like's left handed pitching. Heaney just isn't there yet, and Lowrie will be batting in the middle of a bunch of literal monsters, and at his discounted prices he's still posted a 117 wRC+ against all manner of left handed pitching in his career.
Elvis Andrus FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5783
A pitcher and park pick - the Rangers should absolutely thrash Kyle Gibson, and Andrus is one of the few of them whose price doesn't seem to account for the inevitable beat down that is forthcoming. Always tough for him to post a monster, but if you want to spend little for solid production, Elvis is your man.
Josh Donaldson FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7197
If you want to spend at any position today, I simply love Donaldson. The dude is a monster against left handed pitching, and his ridiculous 165 wRC+ vs. left handers for his career is only outshined by his literal joke of a 198 wRC+ against left handers in 2014. In case you haven't heard of him (I hadn't until this year), "Andrew Heaney" is not really anyone you should be wringing your hands over. Buy Donaldson everywhere you can afford him.
Manny Machado FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 3703
Our projection system continues to raise its digital eyebrows in disbelief on Machado. Hopefully you took last night's recommendation and got a pile of points on a minimum salary. So you know, our system likes Machado just as much against Cobb today - he's been basically platoon neutral for his career, and the price is simply too low for what he is capable of, especially on FanDuel.
Aramis Ramirez FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 7105
A-Ram has been putting up straight up numbers recently, and a lot of those were against actual major league pitchers. Now, he gets to hit against Jorge De La Rosa, who has a number of strikes against him. He's left handed (Ramirez has a 138 wRC+ against lefties for his career), and he is awful. Okay, so that's two strikes, but they are pretty big strikes.
Ryan Braun FanDuel 4500 DraftKings 5700 DraftStreet 9066
He may not be doing it with home runs, but Braun just keeps on paying these prices. He's still a super-duper-uber star, and like all the Brewers above him, I think he'll make quick work of De La Rosa. Braun has a decided preference for left handed pitching, and this is simply a dream match-up.
Yoenis Cespedes FanDuel 4100 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 7159
Hello Dream Match Up Day! Cespedes is in the same spot as Braun. The still raw Cespedes has as much upside as any player in the game when he's facing left handed pitching, and the lefty he's facing in this game is unlikely to be able to fool him.
Shin-Soo Choo FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 5849
We've had some complaints(!) about picking Choo so frequently, but what can I say? The guy can still put up points in a bunch of different ways, and in case you didn't know, THEY ARE FACING KYLE GIBSON!! Gibson has just 47 Ks in 85 IP, which is horrible. Allowing that kind of contact in Texas is a recipe for disaster, and I think Choo and the gang will be all over him.
Austin Jackson FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5109
Looks like it was just a routine day off for Jackson, and in this game he'll get to face a non-major league pitcher in Scott Feldman. Jackson is a reverse-platoon split guy, meaning he actually prefers pitchers of the same handedness as him. I am fairly certain that he'll have a huge game, and by fairly certain, I mean I really have no idea since anything can happen in a given game of baseball. But still - probability is on his side in this one.
Oswaldo Arcia FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5139
His last name may be missing its first letter, but the dude can actually mash right handed pitching. He's a true embarrassment to the game when it comes to hitting lefties, but he's better than league average for his career and right handers, and Colby Lewis should give the Twins ample opportunity to do some damage today.
Jason Heyward FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6702
Heyward's .206 wOBA against left handed pitching basically means he's a pitcher when he faces them. This drags his overall line down to relatively absurd levels for his raw talent level. His .365 wOBA against right handed pitching is still excellent, however, and facing well below league average pitchers like David Buchanan should make a huge difference in Heyward's performance. Sniffing out a monster game here.
Curtis Granderson FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6533
So you couldn't call the Grandy-man an elite hitter anymore, but he's still totally capable of turning on a sub-par offering. Anyone who has watched him regularly throughout his career knows that Granderson has always been a classic bum-hunter - humiliating bad pitchers while offering some of the worst swings in the game against good ones. Edinson Volquez is one such bad pitcher. Love Granderson today.
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