Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

07/01/2014
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftStreet for 7/1/14

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Pitchers

Stephen Strasburg FanDuel 9300 DraftKings 10300 DraftStreet 22222
Wben you look at the Rockies in the hitting standings they rank number one in the league in terms of wOBA against righties. But when you put that team on the road you see that many of their numbers are buoyed by half the games rolling in Coors. They drop 17th in the league on the road and strikeout 22% of the time. This represents a massive difference and begins to show the effects of Coors. Stras is going at home, a place he pitches much better and his numbers are stupid good this season. Don't get scared about the Rockies. This is a great play today.

Mike Minor FanDuel 7300 DraftKings 8300 DraftStreet 16879
Minor's had an inauspicious beginning to the season, but there are reasons to be excited for this game. First off, the Mets live to strike out against lefties. One can only assume they have some team mark they are trying their damndest to achieve. At a 24.7% K% against lefties, there appears to be no other reason. Plus their .309 wOBA means that even the contact isn't quality. Minor's xFIP is more than a run below his ERA at .347 and he's striking out nearly a batter per nine. The walks are right in line with his career averages and I'm seeing this as a good play today.

Hisashi Iwakuma FanDuel 8000 DraftKings 8600 DraftStreet 17533
Note: With Walker taking his spot yesterday this pick remains the same. This is what I had to write for Monday's game
Ooh boy do the Astros strike out a lot against righties. Their 24% K% is tied with the Marlins for worst in the league. Iwakuma isn’t going to blow it out of the box in terms of strikeouts but he also is a control freak, walking less than a batter per nine. That’s about as good as you’ll see and his ability to stay in the zone makes up for his lack of K’s because he can go late in games. The Astros can hit a little, but again it’s mitigated by the strikeout rate. Solid cash game play here.

James Shields FanDuel 8000 DraftKings 7700 DraftStreet 16859
The Twins are starting to fade offensively and Shields, while not a huge upside play here offers some relative safety as compared to the field. His K rate is on the lower end for a top tier pitcher but he mitigates that to some degree by allowing very few free passes. He walks less than two batters per nine which allows him to go later in games. Won't give you the crazy K upside, but seems fine for cash games at these prices.

Edwin Jackson FanDuel 6500 DraftKings 6500 DraftStreet 10263
Much like what I said yesterday about Arrietta, the Red Sox are just not that great of an offense and they particularly struggle against righty pitching. Now, know this, Jackson isn’t Arrietta and has some severe command issues at times. So this is a GPP play if you are really looking to take an upside risk. Not for everyone as it could get real ugly, real quick. But Jackson’s 3.82 xFIP and 8.53 K/9 make me at least intrigued.

Consider Ian Kennedy

Catchers

Buster Posey FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6950
While Marco Gonzalez is actually a prospect with some decent stuff, what we are looking at specifically are Posey’s solid splits against lefties for his career. This year the numbers have evened out a little, but I’ll take the bigger sample size all day long. He has mashed lefties over the long run and though the park doesn’t do him any real favors, I’ll still take a bigger bat at a weak position on the dominant side of his split.

Wilson Ramos FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5745
Recommending him and many of the Nationals today for the same reasons as yesterday. They are, as a team, much better against lefties as their primary bats have stark splits in favoring that side. Ramos is one of them. Christian Freidrich's K rate is high but so are the walks. Ramos's success against lefties this season is right in line with his career 123 wRC+ and if you don't rock Posey this is the way to go.

I don't see myself straying too far from these guys but if you do consider Hank Conger or A.J. Pierzynski

 

First Basemen

Some big boppers here today that you may want to pay up for but there are some nice prices on some guys that make the position intriguing.
Chris Davis FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 5600 DraftStreet 6485
Davis is one guy you can consider saving some money on. I am convinced Davis has a big power stretch coming this season and you are going to want to be on these low prices when it happens. Sure he K's a lot which make the DraftStreet play a little dicey. But the batter profile is tight with his LD% up from last season and the HR/FB% set to regress just enough to make a power surge possibly on the horizon. Camden Yards is a great hitter's park and this is a solid value.

Adrian Gonzalez FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6884
Justin Masterson is filthy against righties and absolutely garbage against lefties. It's always interesting to play guys against Masterson because it is hard to stack teams because the righties are such dogs to have success. But the lefties can really tee off. Gonzalez is in play because of lefties .348 wOBA against Masterson this season.

Paul Goldschmidt FanDuel 4800 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 7337
Know this, Jeff Locke is a lefty with reverse splits so he is actually a little better pitching against righties. That being said, Goldschmidt is so damned good against lefties that I don't care how "good" crappy Jeff Locke is against righties. Goldy has brutalized lefties for his career with a 163 wRC+ and .994 OPS. He's a little expensive in spots but is a great, great price on DraftStreet.

Consider Miguel Cabrera and Freddie Freeman

Second Basemen

Jason Kipnis FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 4357
Kipnis's big fantasy value is his ability to provide both speed and power on a daily basis. Unfortunately, this hasn't totally come to fruition so far this season. He's run a but the power has been limited. But the Hr/FB% is much lower than his career averages but based on his batted ball profile, that number could be set to regress. Dodger Stadium isn't the best place for this to happen but I like Kipnis against Beckett nonetheless.

Anthony Rendon FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 6535
In his short-ish major league tenure Rendon owns big time splits against lefties. This season the OPS is around .900 which falls in line with his career averages. Like I said for Werth yesterday is Rendon's numbers are skewed a little this year by simply having not faced a bunch of lefties already. But two days in a row should begin to cure that and he'll get Friedrich today who has K potential but is also a bit wild.

Tommy La Stella FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 6493
There are some other nice options but I don't want to give all of the most expensive guys. I like la Stella today against Matsuzaka because if you are targeting walks and safety, this is a great place to go. la Stella walks more than he strikes out and Daisuke be Daisuke.

Consider Ian Kinsler

Shortstops

Ian Desmond FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 4732
Loved him yesterday facing the lefty as a top play and he obliged with a couple of hits and three RBIs. I'm on board again today though with excitement tempered a little just because of Freidrich's K potential. Otherwise Desmond is much better against lefties and the Nats in general are an intriguing stack option.

Jed Lowrie FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4770
Love Lowrie today mostly because his season numbers are being severely effected by a crazy low Babip so far this season. It sits about 40 points below his career average while the rest of his batted ball profile looks about what you would expect. He walks almost as much as he strikes out. Just be sure he is playing against Porcello.

Erick Aybar FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6231
I feel like I have good luck with this guy and our system likes him against Scott Carroll who is pretty garbage-y with a K rate right around his BB rate. Aybar doesn't do anything particularly well, but he hit near the middle of the lineup behind some big bats.

Consider Jordy Mercer as a punt option
 

Third Basemen

Love this position today.
Ryan Zimmerman FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6409
Like many of his Nats teammates, Zimmerman is much better against lefties and is still coming in at solid value across the industry. Like Desmond, we picked him yesterday and he went 3-4 with an RBI. Look for some more production today as he carries significant platoon split differences when facing lefties.

Carlos Santana FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 5164
This is an interesting meeting of platoon splits today. Josh Beckett is much worse against lefties for his career, struggling mightily against that hand. Santana on the other side is worse against righties, but I think the differences are made up in the middle making him a play today.

Martin Prado FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 4982
Kills lefties for his career and that's one of the main reasons his numbers look good enough for him to continue taking the field every day. He's probably more of a platoon player who gets to take the field everyday. Locke is better against righties in a reverse split fashion, but I think Prado's success warrants a play.

Consider Nick Castellanos

 

Outfielders

Jayson Werth FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6091
Our projection system has him as the top value and almost overall outfield play in general. He has crushed lefties for his career and has run bad a little this season. What I love here are the prices on the guy as they've dropped steadily over the short term because of a power outage. I don't expect it to continue and love the upside here today. His prices make it easy to get him in lineups and I think he'll be a high percentage play today as well.

Josh Hamilton FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 7144
Kole Calhoun FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5745
As mentioned before, Scott Carroll is completely terrible. The xFIP is near five and he can't strike anyone out. He does walk a lot of batters though which is nice for these two outfielders. Hamilton and Calhoun are much better against righties and I think both could go off today. Mike Trout is obviously in the discussion as well though he is so cost prohibitive as to make it difficult to get him into lineups.

Andrew McCutchen FanDuel 4700 DraftKings 5400 DraftStreet 7559
Starling Marte FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 5883
Obviously these guys are not on the same level with each other, but the considerations are the same. They both face a lefty in Miley who's had flashes of decentness this season which keeps both Pirates a little lower on the list. PNC Park also depresses power to righties which makes the plays a little less exciting than the guys above. But both McCutch and Marte are significantly better against lefties over their careers (Marte a little Babip fueled). The speed and power combo helps raise the floor for both mitigating, to some degree, the park factors.

Shin-Soo Choo FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 5555
Wouldn't be a weekday if we didn't recommend Choo. Not as crazy value as some other previous day. The ankle injury is a little of a concern and has probably helped keep his price down. But T.J. McFarland is a low K pitcher with an xFIP in the mid 4's. I know we probably over-rec Choo. But I still like the upside.

Consider Coco Crisp and Alex Rios
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2 Visitor Comments

  1. When using the line up construction tool, whats a good projected value for your line up that you are shooting for each time?

    • That is a tough question to answer as the matchups each day dictate higher and lower scores. Not trying to dodge there, it just varies. I would instead look for fitting the top end realistic value into the positions each day and work backward.

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