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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

07/06/2014
James Davis

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftStreet for 7/6/14

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Pitchers

Tim Lincecum Jesse Hahn, who has actually been pretty incredible this year. A win is far from assured, but the upside for Lincecum in this game is through the roof.

Jordan Zimmermann

Collin McHugh FanDuel 8000 DraftKings 10200 DraftStreet 23520
Might seem strange to recommend guys who are facing each other, but the system likes both. It's basically your job to decide who you think is going to get the win, and pick them. But both guys have tremendous K upside, and the park is a terrific spot to pitch. Our system believes more in Richards due to his great K track record, but McHugh has been electric this year. You obviously shouldn't play both on the same team, but I don't mind spreading out your exposure to both across a few different squads.

Also considered: Jesse Hahn, Alex Wood, Jeff Samardzija, Wade Miley

 

Catchers

Brian McCann FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 6931Doug and I are in agreement that we're playing McCann every time against bad righties until the price comes back up. After Fangraphs' article about trusting projection systems, we're sticking with McCann to great results. His line from the last 2 weeks has been excellent, and he's been flashing some of that peak power. Nolasco has been pretty bad this year, showing a decreased strike rate and an uptick in walks. I think the Yankees will put him through the ringer, and McCann will play a big role.

A.J. Ellis FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 4457
He's not a classic upside play, but Ellis has done real damage to lefties this year - a 140 wRC+ - and facing off against "Yohan Flande" should give Ellis plenty of opportunity to put together a solid game by doing a little bit of everything. At these low prices, he doesn't need to do a whole lot to be a very steady play in a great park against an inexperienced pitcher.

Also considered
After these guys, there are a handful of guys I like pretty similarly. You've got Mike Zunino against a terrible pitcher, but not one of the handedness he prefers. You've got AJ Pierzynski against a lousy right hander. Castro is facing a righty in Richards, but he occasionally gets overpowered by big arms. Posey's facing a young pitcher, but a young pitcher who has been electric so far. I'm picking one of the top guys, but I get it if you want one of these guys instead.

 

First Basemen

Mark Teixeira FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7538
Get used to seeing Yankees on the top of these lists - my guess is that Teixeira won't be the last one there. Ricky Nolasco's struggles this season are well documented, and Teixeira has been decidedly better against right handed pitching this year. His .368 wOBA against righties of all stripes means he's seeing the ball great from the left side of the plate, and I have no reason to believe Nolasco will be the guy who figures him out.

David Ortiz FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 8967
I'm going to have to hold my nose and pick a bunch of Yankees and Red Sox today, I guess. Kevin Gausman has looked lost this year. The walks are up and the K rate is non-existent. Ortiz hasn't been vintage Papi or anything, but presumably he can still do damage against right handers like Gausman.

Justin Morneau FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 6976
Morneau hasn't been flashing that early season power recently, but that doesn't mean it's gone away. He's taking a lot of cuts at the ball, and Beckett won't have the benefit of pitching in Dodger stadium in this game. Morneau may not wind up as the MVP this year, but when it's all said and done our projection system figures he'll wind up with a very solid line. I'm loving him today.

Also considered: Joey Votto, Chris Davis, Albert Pujols, Adam Dunn

 

Second Basemen

Robinson Cano FanDuel 4300 DraftKings 5300 DraftStreet 9447

Hopefully you stuck with Robinson Cano through his tough times - if you did, you've gotten paid pretty much every night for the last week. This is an ideal match-up for Cano. A terrible pitcher in a great hitter's park, and a right hander to boot! The rest of the Ms don't mind seeing a right hander like Noesi either, so Cano should also see a bunch of counting stats opportunities to go with whatever he can generate on his own.

Daniel Murphy FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 7993

A couple of off nights for Murphy, but he'll have a lot going for him in today's contest. He'll be squaring up the barrel against Nick Tepesch - he of just 29 Ks in 44 innings pitched this year. There's not really a lot of different ways to say this, but I think the Mets will run Tepesch off the field, which should mean lots of plate appearances in a favorable match-up for Murphy.

Ben Zobrist FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 5625
Zobrist is another guy who our projection system has stuck with through hard times, to great results. He hasn't put up any singularly huge night, but he's trotted out a lot of solid performances night in night out. I (and our projection system) am just counting down until Porcello goes all pumpkin on everyone - he just had a complete game against one of the league's best offenses BUT HE DIDN'T STRIKE OUT A SINGLE GUY. It just ain't sustainable. I think the Rays get to Porcello and Zobrist has a night where he does a little bit of everything.

Also considered: Neil Walker, Dustin Pedroia
 

Shortstops

Hanley Ramirez FanDuel 4500 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 9899
When Hanley is facing left handed pitchers in Coors field, it's just going to be tough to price him too highly. Flande is a guy who barely put together a 2:1 K:BB ratio in the minors this year, and now he wants to face grown up hitters in Coors field? He's going to get torched, and Hanley will be padding his already gaudy line.

Brad Miller FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3000 DraftStreet 5103
I like getting Miller in at these cheap prices against the right handed Noesi. Miller is a tricky guy to take in double-up formats due to the ridiculous strike out rate, but Noesi really doesn't have strike out stuff, so it's one of those immovable force vs. unstoppable object things. I'm picking whichever one of those that Miller is.

Elvis Andrus FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5151
Andrus winds up being a sneaky upside guy, especially at these low prices on FanDuel. Wheeler's wildness leaves him vulnerable to big innings, and Elvis only needs to get on base once to pay these bargain prices. I think the patient Texas offense will give Wheeler an awfully hard time, and they may be more inclined to let Andrus run given Citi Field's home run depressing tendencies.

Also considered: Andrelton Simmons, Jed Lowrie, Jean Segura, Stephen Drew (if he plays)
 

 

Third Basemen

Pedro Alvarez FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5483
Burnett is not an ideal match-up for Alvarez with his strike out abilities, but it's a tough day for 3rd basemen, and Alvarez could absolutely take advantage of a Burnett mistake. That's the wild card here - Burnett has been ridiculously wild this year, and if he leaves one out over the plate it could wind up over the fence.

Martin Prado FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 4353
Prado's a low-upside low-risk play when it comes to facing left handed pitchers. His career .350 wOBA against left handed pitchers is excellent, and his 1:1 K:BB ratio vs. them really limits his downside. Alex Wood has been nothing to write home about this year, and you can get Prado at very affordable prices across the different sites today.

Kyle Seager FanDuel 4100 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 8795
The price is climbing on Seager, but the guy has been phenomenal against right handed pitching this year (and for his career, really). He's put up an MVP level .412 wOBA against right handed pitchers this year, and that even takes into account his horrific home ball park. Now he gets a crack at non-major leaguer Hector Noesi in one of the best parks for left handed hitters in the majors east of Colorado. The Mariners could run Noesi out early, but their lefties should get plenty of licks in first.


 

 

Outfielders

Giancarlo Stanton FanDuel 5100 DraftKings 5500 DraftStreet 10684

Stanton is an underrated power hitter. I kid. But not a lot of people are probably aware of just how badly he is crushing lefties this season. And he's crushing all lefties.. from the most elite Ace southpaws to pitchers like Marco Gonzales. And wait a second - he's actually facing MARCO FREAKING GONZALES today! If ever there were a favorite to hit a home run in a game, it'd have to be here. Hard to imagine Stanton and his .503 wOBA vs. lefties this season not being a nearly universal play.

Matt Kemp FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7242
It's tempting to turn your back on Kemp, since he's not exactly producing at those 40/40 rates of old. All that being said, it's Yohan Flande! A guy who walked 3.56 hitters per 9 innings in the minors this year! He's getting chased or I'll eat one of Doug's trademark Red Sox hat.

Shin-Soo Choo FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6975
If Shin-Soo Choo were a college buddy of mine, he'd be the guy who got straight As the first semester freshman year, who partied so much he got suspended during the 2nd semester, and then winds up being a doctor some day, to everyone's great surprise. A convoluted analogy. But the system has stuck with Choo WAY longer than we have. I'd stopped including him in the picks weeks ago, and he's finally come around with a couple of huge performances recently. I'm going back to my roots and trusting our projection system, and it loves Choo at these still reduced prices against Wheeler in Citi Field.

Jacoby Ellsbury FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 8038
Ellsbury is another lefty who should have a terrific time against Ricky Nolasco. Unlike when the Yankees play in Yankee Stadium, they will have a lot of incentive to run in this game. Ellsbury's running as much as anyone this year, and that could lead to a monster performance against the flailing Nolasco.

Yasiel Puig FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 5800 DraftStreet 9734
Read the write-ups for Kemp and Ramirez. Puig simply destroys inexperienced pitching, and it seems like the only guys who can do anything to stop his relent assault are the ones with incredible stuff or wily veteran experience. Flande has neither.

Mike Trout FanDuel 5600 DraftKings 5900 DraftStreet 9589
It's hard to picture Mike Trout as an upside guy at these prices, but the power speed combination is really unseen anywhere else in the bigs. Our projection system is having trouble picturing a ton of upside, but there's actually a lot of safety built into this price considering that Trout is always an at bat away from putting bunches of fantasy points on the board.

Also considered: Austin Jackson, Curtis Granderson, Josh Hamilton, Justin Upton

 

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1 Visitor Comment

  1. who would you rather play today? Kemp or Jacoby, I already have puig and hanley in my line up……

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